What is the Phillies’ backup plan if Aaron Nola leaves? Here are a few trade options.

Maybe the Phillies will re-sign Aaron Nola.

Think about it: When was the last time they didn’t reel in their top free-agent target? In the 2018-19 offseason, they pursued and wooed Bryce Harper. A year later, it was Zack Wheeler. The next year, J.T. Realmuto. If not for a 99-day lockout, they would have locked up Kyle Schwarber in December 2021 instead of March 2022. Last winter, baseball operations zeroed in on Trea Turner, and ownership forked over the cash.

So, if Dave Dombrowski was being earnest this week in labeling Nola “our priority to sign,” it’s a decent bet that John Middleton will go to uncomfortable lengths (for a billionaire) to make it happen. He is, after all, the owner who said this in February about the 11-year deal with Turner: “I did it because that’s what it took to sign the guy. If I stopped at seven or eight years, I couldn’t have signed him. If you can’t stand talking about eight to 11 years, you’re just not going to get the truly, truly elite players.”

» READ MORE: Dave Dombrowski says Aaron Nola is the Phillies’ ‘priority’ in free agency; Bryce Harper’s decision key

But free agency is unpredictable. And like bidders at an auction, every team has a line. In the spring, Nola reportedly sought upward of $200 million over seven or eight years in extension talks. All it will take to land that contract on the open market is one pitching-needy team.

To wit: Last winter, the Yankees wrote a six-year, $162 million check to Carlos Rodón even though he only once topped 170 innings in a season. It isn’t crazy to think some team will go even further for Nola, who has made more starts (175) than any pitcher in baseball since 2018.

What happens, then, if the Cardinals or Dodgers, or even the (gulp) Braves or Mets place a higher value on Nola than the Phillies? Where do the Phillies turn then?

“We hope to retain him, but if we don’t, that would be our No. 1 area that we’d need to then replace him,” Dombrowski said. “We need to be in a position where we have somebody else that would be a starting pitcher of quality in the rotation. It’s either Aaron or somebody else.”

Internally, the Phillies lack a replacement. Andrew Painter will miss all or most of next season after undergoing Tommy John elbow surgery. Hopes remain high for fellow prospect Mick Abel to be a solid major league starter, but Dombrowski reiterated that it won’t be by the beginning of next season. Griff McGarry’s future is most likely as a reliever.

» READ MORE: Murphy: The numbers say the Phillies shouldn’t invest big money in Aaron Nola. But do they have a choice?

If demand for Nola soars, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery will likely experience a similar free-agent boom. Sonny Gray is older (34 next month) and more of a mid-rotation starter, although he did pitch at Vanderbilt with Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham. If Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes the jump from Japan, as expected, he will have a lineup of suitors because of his age (25) and talent (1.82 career ERA in Nippon Professional Baseball).

All of which brings us to the trade market, where a few intriguing possibilities reside. Keep an eye on these three:

Despite their small market and middling payroll, the Brewers haven’t had a losing record in a full season since 2016. Their secret to keeping the window to contention propped: moving on from players before they depart in free agency and replenishing the roster with cheaper talent.

It happened when they traded closer Josh Hader at the deadline in 2022, and it could happen again with Burnes.

Burnes, 29, went through a contentious arbitration hearing in the spring after which he told MLB.com that his relationship with the Brewers “is definitely hurt.” He’s eligible for arbitration once more and can be a free agent after next season, typically the stage in a player’s career when Milwaukee looks to make a move.

» READ MORE: Sizing up an Aaron Nola contract in free agency: The comps, the Phillies factors, and one familiar case

Brandon Woodruff could miss 2024 after shoulder surgery, which may change the Brewers’ calculus. But while trading Burnes would likely mean taking a step back next season, they might avoid a full rebuild if they’re able to get two or three players for him.

Burnes is coming off another solid year (3.39 ERA and 200 strikeouts in 193⅔ innings), albeit not quite as good as the previous two, including a 2021 season in which he edged Wheeler for the Cy Young Award despite pitching 46 fewer innings. He’s still a top-seven starter in the National League and more than a worthy replacement for Nola.

The Phillies previously wouldn’t discuss Abel in trade talks. If that’s still the case, could they build a deal around Brandon Marsh or center-field whiz Johan Rojas and a different pitching prospect (McGarry)? And how confident would they be in signing Burnes long-term, especially because Wheeler is also eligible for free agency after next season?

The Guardians manage to stay competitive with a modest payroll by operating like a pitching factory. They churn out arms through the farm system and smart trades, enabling them to move from CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee to Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber to Trevor Bauer and Bieber with little lag in between.

With another wave of young pitchers having arrived in Cleveland, it’s time to turn things over again.

Aaron Civale got traded at the deadline, and Bieber might have gone, too, if he hadn’t strained his shoulder. It was important, then, that the 28-year-old right-hander returned for two late-season starts, including six solid innings Sept. 27 to deal a blow to the Reds’ wild-card hopes.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper vows the Phillies will be back in 2024, but they face plenty of questions first

The Guardians might be selling low on Bieber after the injury and a 3.80 ERA in only 128 innings. But they figure to get a better return in the offseason entering his walk year than at the trade deadline, when he will be only months from free agency. His track record is solid. He has a 3.07 ERA since 2019, seventh-best among all pitchers with at least 100 starts in that span.

Cleveland is seeking a power bat. The Phillies have a few in the minors, including Gabriel Rincones Jr. and Carlos De La Cruz. Or maybe they could peddle Nick Castellanos by offering to pay down most of the $60 million that he’s owed over the next three years, while also taking back light-hitting center fielder Myles Straw and the $20 million that the Guardians owe him though 2026.

The Rangers and Diamondbacks are in the World Series two seasons after losing 102 and 110 games, respectively. So, maybe the 101-loss White Sox believe 2025 will be their year. In that case, why move on from a 28-year-old ace who is 24 months from free agency?

Or maybe a new front office, led by rookie general manager Chris Getz, is intent on a down-to-the-studs rebuild.

Regardless, the White Sox will get calls on Cease. They wouldn’t be selling high. One year after finishing as runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award, the mustachioed righty slid to a 4.58 ERA in 33 starts and had command problems that translated to 79 walks, nine hit batters, and 14 wild pitches in 177 innings.

» READ MORE: How does Bryce Harper thrive under playoff pressure? He’s lived with it since he was 16.

But Cease’s swing-and-miss stuff remains electric, from the heater that averages 96 mph to the wipeout slider that helped produce a 27.3% strikeout rate.

A trade for Cease might have to include Abel. But it would also give the Phillies a controllable top-of-the-rotation starter beyond next season. If they’re able to work out an extension with Wheeler, he could head a hypothetical 2025 rotation that would feature Cease, Ranger Suárez (under control through 2025), and Painter.

Or the Phillies could simply do what it takes to bring back Nola.

If Painter and Abel fulfill their promise as major league starters, they will be at the low end of the salary scale during the latter half of Nola’s next contract. As Middleton sees it, a farm system that consistently feeds the major league roster makes long-term deals for free agents (six or seven years, in Nola’s case) easier to bear.

“I’ve said it all year long: The Phillies go as Aaron Nola goes,” Realmuto said. “He’s important to us. We all want him back in the clubhouse. We have faith in the front office that they’re going to do the right thing. We want him back.”

In the end, maybe the Phillies’ decision-makers will feel the same.