Maddening as it is, Dave Dombrowski is right to protect Aidan Miller and Andrew Painter at all costs

Give the Phillies credit. It’s difficult to have the worst winter in the city when you play in the same city as the Sixers. But, by golly, Dave Dombrowski is doing it. More than a month into the free-agent signing period, the Phillies president is still talking like a professional magician who isn’t quite sure why he is in a theater full of people who are staring at him. Baseball’s competitive landscape has shifted dramatically in recent weeks. The list of contenders that have made impact moves is nearly comprehensive. The Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, and Giants are all significantly better than they were at the end of last season. Meanwhile, Dombrowski spent last week’s winter meetings looking like a guy who was just looking for the pickleball courts.

“I wish we would have maybe done a little more,” Dombrowski told reporters last Wednesday. “But it’s not done either.”

There’s nothing wrong with wishing for things, of course. Especially at this time of year. Peace on earth, good will toward men, glad tidings. All good things to wish for. A right-handed bat who can play the corner outfield? Gotta go out and get that yourself. That chimney’s only big enough for one full-grown man.

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It’s Christmas, so I don’t want to say anything that will ruin anyone’s spirit or shatter the hopes and dreams of the little ones. But, look, the older you get, the more you grow to recognize when something you really want probably ain’t gonna happen. From Day 1 of the offseason, Dombrowski has gone out of his way to avoid overselling and under-delivering. A few days after the World Series, he pooh-poohed the notion that the Phillies’ National League Division Series loss to the Mets signaled a need for major change. He repeated that sentiment several times in the ensuing weeks. At the GM meetings, in radio interviews, the message was the same: This is a good team, regardless of what we do this offseason.

The winter meetings brought more of it. In the wake of the Mets’ signings of Juan Soto and Frankie Montas, with the Dodgers adding Blake Snell and the Cubs adding Kyle Tucker, Dombrowski handled questions about the Phillies’ plan with all of the enthusiasm of a guy who has just walked out of a Starbucks and been accosted by a Greenpeace volunteer.

Sorry, man! Can’t hear you! New episode of Hardcore History! Good luck with the whales!

“I don’t want to force it,” Dombrowski said. “I don’t think that’s smart. Because we have too good a team with too many good players, and I believe our players feel that way, too.”

Thing is, Dombrowski’s head is in the right place. The Phillies are no longer in their rapid growth phase. They can’t simply throw money at their deficiencies and outspend their mistakes. The Mets? They are where the Phillies were four years ago. Dry powder, payroll space, maximum flexibility. That’s not to say the Phillies can’t still make a big move. But they are at a place where any move they make has to be the right move.

Trading prospects like Aidan Miller or Andrew Painter is not the right move. These aren’t ordinary prospects. Both have the potential to become the veterans everybody wants to trade for 10 years from now. You don’t trade a young, cheap potential Tucker for the older, expensive version. Miller and Painter are the kind of players the Phillies really need in order to take the next step and become a team that avoids the boom-bust cycle of many big-market clubs.

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The future is a difficult thing to err on the side of. There’s no guarantee Miller and Painter ever reach their potential. One year of Tucker could look more than fair a few years from now. But the stakes are enormous. Look at Logan O’Hoppe, for instance. Three years ago, the Phillies traded their hot catching prospect to the Angels for Brandon Marsh. How much value might O’Hoppe have now, either as a young complement to J.T. Realmuto or as a trade chip for an impact bat or arm (or as an option that enables the Phillies to explore a trade of Realmuto himself)?

The Phillies' lack of action has been maddening, no doubt. There’s a thin line between throwing the baby out with the bathwater and letting it stew in its own rotten juices. At times, it feels like Dombrowski would rather people focus on how good the Phillies could have been instead of how good they actually were.

The reality of 2025 is that it could come down to how right he was about all of his past moves. Marsh, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Taijuan Walker — the current size of the Phillies’ war chest is a direct result of the treasure they’ve already spent (roughly $70 million plus O’Hoppe’s surplus value).

Dombrowski isn’t a dummy. He is a good executive who has overseen a three-year run that compares with some of the best in franchise history. His are the words of a man who knows that a team can’t live on its checkbook forever. Eventually, the Phillies are going to need to find a superstar they develop themselves.