Let’s make a deal: Trade proposals for the Phillies to land another hitter, starting pitching help

In going 3-3 last week against the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals, the Phillies reaffirmed two things we thought we knew about them:

The trade deadline isn’t until Aug. 2, and a lot can change in 29 days. Twenty-nine days ago, Harper’s thumb had not met Blake Snell’s heater, Zach Eflin and Ranger Suárez were pitching every five days, and Darick “Long Ball” Hall was bashing homers in the bushes at triple A. Heck, Rob Thomson had only just replaced Joe Girardi.

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Across baseball, it’s shaping up to be a seller’s market. With the addition of a third wild card in each league, only 11 of the 30 teams were more than five games out of a playoff spot entering the week. Others may fall out of the race by month’s end. But any team that is within striking distance now likely will wait as long as possible before deciding whether to buy or sell at the deadline.

Add in that the Phillies have multiple areas of need — starting rotation depth, the bullpen, a left-handed hitter — and one rival executive said last week that it’s premature to predict what president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will prioritize. An opposing scout said there’s “not even tangible gossip” yet about the Phillies’ approach.

That won’t spoil our fun. Based on what we know of their needs, their previous interests, and how they regard their top prospects, we’ve taken a few swings at three trade proposals and run them through the simulator at baseballtradevalues.com. All Dombrowski has to do now is dial the phone.

The Phillies acquire OF Ian Happ and RHP David Robertson from the Chicago Cubs for C Logan O’Hoppe, OF Simón Muzziotti, and LHP Erik Miller

Let’s be clear: The Phillies aren’t itching to trade O’Hoppe. The 22-year-old catcher is hitting .273/.381/.531 with 14 homers in double A. He’s a top-100 prospect in baseball.

But O’Hoppe is also the Phillies’ best trade chip.

J.T. Realmuto, owed $71.625 million through 2025, is entrenched behind the plate. As long as Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos are on the roster, the Phillies won’t lack for DH at-bats, either. O’Hoppe’s road to the majors, at least within the next year, appears to be blocked, which differentiates him from towering twin pitching prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel in the realm of Phillies untouchables.

» READ MORE: Logan O’Hoppe has always been a catcher, and that won’t change with the Phillies

The Phillies would only move O’Hoppe for a player who is controllable beyond this season. Happ, 27, is under contract through 2023. He’s also a switch-hitter with slightly better career splits from the left side and the versatility to play all three outfield positions, including center, plus second and third base. And he’s having the best season of his career, batting .285/.384/.461 with eight homers through Sunday.

With the Cubs on pace to lose 95 games after losing 91 last year, Happ probably won’t fit within the window of their next contending team. O’Hoppe, meanwhile, could catch for them next season, especially if they trade Willson Contreras.

Robertson flamed out with the Phillies in 2019, but his problems were related to health (Tommy John elbow surgery) rather than performance. At 37, he’s having a renaissance season as the Cubs closer and would give Thomson another proven late-inning option.

The Phillies acquire RHP Merrill Kelly and OF David Peralta from the Arizona Diamondbacks for RHP Griff McGarry and RHP Cristian Hernandez

A week ago, only the Phillies and juggernaut New York Yankees had five pitchers who made at least 13 starts apiece. Then, within a span of six days, the Phillies put Eflin (bruised right knee) and Suárez (low back spasms) on the injured list.

Starting pitching depth was never a Phillies strength. They will fill in with Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez, who have a total of seven major league starts between them. It’s a tenable situation if Eflin and Suárez miss only a couple of starts. But Eflin, in particular, is coming off right knee surgery. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s out through the All-Star break.

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Kelly, a 33-year-old right-hander, could be this year’s version of Kyle Gibson, who was acquired at the deadline last year after Eflin went down. He has a 3.46 ERA in 16 starts for Arizona and is under contract for a total of $18 million through 2024. The Phillies are already over the $230 million luxury-tax threshold. They could absorb Kelly’s $5.25 million salary and still be below the next level of tax penalties ($250 million).

Peralta, eligible for free agency after the season, almost certainly will be traded before the deadline. The 34-year-old outfielder would add some left-handed pop until Harper returns and provide reliable defense. He has been primarily a left fielder but could also play right.

The Phillies would be wary about giving up McGarry, who struck out 82 batters in 46⅔ innings in high A before getting promoted to double A over the weekend. But the 23-year-old right-hander is a notch below Painter and Abel on the prospect chart. Some rival evaluators wonder if control problems will eventually push him to the bullpen, although one NL scout said last week that McGarry’s four-pitch mix, including a curveball and change up, “might make him a top-end starter.”

The Phillies acquire 2B/OF Whit Merrifield and RHP Brad Keller from the Kansas City Royals for OF Ethan Wilson and RHP Ben Brown.

Royals officials will field more calls on Andrew Benintendi than any other player, and the Phillies will be among the interested teams.

As a lefty-hitting outfielder, Benintendi could help the Phillies withstand Harper’s absence. He has been a left fielder for most of his major league career but has experience in center field and the athleticism to move to right. He also played for Dombrowski with the Red Sox, including on the 2018 World Series team.

But while Benintendi would be a two-month rental, Merrifield has another year on his contract and a team option for 2024. He also has the versatility to play right field and second base, which would enable him to fill in for either Harper or Segura.

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Two downsides to Merrifield: He’s a right-handed hitter, and his offensive production is on a four-year decline. He’s having a career-worst season, too, batting .235/.290/.318. Does he need a change of scenery after seven losing seasons in Kansas City? Or, at 33, are his skills receding?

The Phillies also may have interest in Gold Glove center fielder Michael A. Taylor. Not only does he have the range to cover the vast ground between Schwarber and Castellanos, but he’s under contract for next season and could bridge the gap to potential future center fielder Johan Rojas.

Keller, a 26-year-old right-hander, may also help deepen the rotation. He has been inconsistent since the first six weeks of the season but would bring a level of experience that the Phillies lack behind their top five starters.

Other starting pitching options will be available, though many — Pittsburgh lefty José Quintana and Detroit right-hander Michael Pineda, among them — are on expiring contracts. It’s doubtful the Phillies could land Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo without giving up Painter or Abel.

» READ MORE: How tweaking his swing in 2021 helped enable Darick Hall’s success against righties