What if the Phillies’ outfield production doesn’t improve? Here are a few trade options to watch.
Locked in on winning a World Series, the Phillies’ best option to boost their underwhelming outfield production is for Nick Castellanos to go on a tear. If not, there are names to consider.
LONDON — In a span of 19 hours this week, Nick Castellanos won one game for the Phillies with a 10th-inning double and the next with a two-run homer.
“Winning is so much fun,” he said after the latter. “And it solves every problem in an organization, there’s no doubt about that.”
Truer words haven’t been spoken all season.
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Because imagine if the Phillies were, say, 32-31 as they marched into the London Series this weekend. Think of the scrutiny that would be placed upon Castellanos, who ranked 135th among 153 qualified hitters in OPS (.630) and 151st in Fangraphs’ wins above replacement (minus-0.9).
Instead, they soared across the Atlantic on 44-19 jet fuel, the best record in the National League. And the right fielder’s lack of production was, well, more of a footnote than a highlighted storyline.
As John Madden famously said, “Winning is a great deodorant. It covers up what stinks about your team.”
Castellanos put it this way: “The team’s success is far greater than my own personal success. So, thanks to my teammates and how good they’ve been playing, it’s been easy to keep me focused on the things that are important.”
But when you’re in Season 3 of a five-year, $100 million contract and playing for an owner and a president of baseball operations with World Series-or-bust aspirations, there’s a statute of limitations on being propped up by teammates. And the guess among rival scouts is that it will run out a week or so before the July 30 trade deadline.
Last year, the Phillies assembled a list of righty-hitting outfielders to target at the deadline. Once Bryce Harper made a successful move to first base in the middle of July, it seemed all but certain that they would deal for an outfielder.
But the Phillies changed course in the days leading up to the deadline. Mainly, they didn’t love how the market’s inventory fit within their roster. The offense already featured a lot of swings and misses. Adding Adam Duvall, Teoscar Hernández, Randal Grichuk, and other righty-hitting outfielders with high strikeout rates was tepid at best.
The Phillies also made a calculation to prioritize defense and speed by sticking with young center fielder Johan Rojas. An elite defender but raw hitter, Rojas brought a different dimension than the trade targets. It has worked. Rojas has started 89 games since his major-league debut last season; the Phillies are 62-27 in those games.
A year later, why would they look to trade for an outfielder again?
They probably wouldn’t if Castellanos was producing. But when he’s batting .214/.277/.353 through 260 plate appearances — and with left fielder Brandon Marsh OPS’ing .390 against lefties before straining his hamstring last week — it becomes more difficult to overlook Rojas’ .234/.273/.299 line in the No. 9 spot in the order.
As an outfield, the Phillies ranked 23rd in OPS (.647) entering the weekend. The major-league average was .693.
Given Castellanos’ contract and the lack of interest in him last winter, it’s unlikely the Phillies can trade him. Rob Thomson has allowed him to try to hit his way out of his struggles. Castellanos wants to play every day, and the manager has kept him in the lineup.
“If my body felt like I needed [rest], I’d be honest with him,” Castellanos said recently. “But I’ve felt fine. The more at-bats I get, the more swings I take, the more chances I’ve got to get something going.”
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Lately, Castellanos has been taking early batting practice with assistant coach Rafael Peña. Since May 10, his hard-hit rate is 45.1%, up from 36.3% to begin the season, according to Statcast. But he still has only 16 extra-base hits, including seven doubles. Through 63 games last season, he had 29 extra-base hits, including 21 doubles.
Castellanos is the Space Mountain of hitters, with extreme highs and lows. Maybe his back-to-back clutch hits at home this week will represent the start of a scorching streak. With seven weeks until the trade deadline, there’s still time to keep president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski from jumping headlong into the outfield market.
But the Phillies are as laser-focused on winning the World Series as ever. So, if the outfield production doesn’t improve, here are a few places Dombrowski can turn for help:
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox
Robert is the best player on the worst team in the majors, and there isn’t a close second. He also doesn’t turn 27 until Aug. 3. He has right-handed power and speed (38 homers, 20 steals last season). And he’s signed for $15 million next year with two $20 million club options that could lock him up through 2027.
So, why would the White Sox trade the center fielder, especially after he finally returned this week from a strained hip flexor?
Because they’re the White Sox, and entering the weekend, they were on pace to lose 122 games, which would top the 1962 Mets’ modern mark of futility (40-120). The rebuild on the South Side of Chicago is going to take a few years. Why not turn Robert into two or three prospects?
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The Phillies’ farm system is improving, especially in the lower levels, but Baseball America and MLB Pipeline still ranked it 21st and 22nd overall entering the season.
For at least two, perhaps as many as four playoff runs with Robert, the Phillies would likely have to package Rojas, a pitching prospect, and a hitter. The cost would be steep, and Dombrowski has been protective of the organization’s best prospects, notably Andrew Painter, Mick Abel, Justin Crawford, and now, Aidan Miller.
But with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suárez together through at least next season — and given the emergence of Cristopher Sánchez and Painter’s expected return next year from Tommy John surgery — it’s worth wondering if the Phillies would give in on Abel for a chance at the best lineup in baseball.
Taylor Ward, Angels
For years, Phillies fans have fantasized about bringing Mike Trout home. But it turns out there’s an even more desirable (at the moment) Angels outfielder.
Ward plays the corners, which would push Marsh back to center field on an everyday basis or in a timeshare with Rojas or Cristian Pache. But the 30-year-old has pop from the right side (career-high 23 homers in 2022; 11 through Wednesday) that would help change the perception, if not the reality, that the Phillies’ lineup is lefty-dominant.
(Have you noticed how many lefty starters the Phillies have faced lately? Ward is hitting lefties hard this season, though he has only slightly better splits against them as opposed to righties for his career.)
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Ward is making $4.8 million this year after winning an arbitration hearing against the Angels. He isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season, so Los Angeles can reasonably shoot for the moon.
But the market dynamics haven’t taken shape yet. Unlike the Angels, who will surely sell, five American League teams and seven National League clubs were within 3½ games of the final wild-card spot entering the weekend. Some will hang in there over the next seven weeks; others will fade.
If the Rays (struggling Randy Arozarena) or Nationals (scuffling Lane Thomas), for example, fall out of the race, the outfield market could deepen. Kyle Tucker would be an enormous deadline prize, but Houston general manager Dana Brown told The Athletic this week that the Astros “don’t see any scenario where we’re sellers.”
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins
Never mind that Chisholm is 26 and under team control through 2026 to a Marlins team that made the playoffs last year. (Really. It wasn’t a fever dream.) He’s available, like everyone else in Miami, according to multiple industry sources.
But the Marlins might be so focused on trading lefty Jesús Luzardo, first baseman/DH Josh Bell, and closer Tanner Scott that they run out of time to pull off what would almost certainly be a multi-prospect blockbuster for Chisholm.
Otherwise, there’s the rental market, a group of players with expiring contracts that among outfielders includes Detroit’s Mark Canha, Boston’s Tyler O’Neill, Washington’s Jesse Winker, Arizona’s Joc Pederson and Grichuk, the Mets’ Harrison Bader and Starling Marte, and San Francisco’s Michael Conforto.
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It’s a lot of the usual suspects whom the Phillies have considered previously.
The best solution, then, might be if Castellanos goes on a tear such as last August, when he batted .293/.308/.552 with eight homers in 120 plate appearances. In that case, the Phillies can keep the outfield status quo again.
“The realist in me knows that there’s so much baseball left,” Castellanos said this week. “And it’s not how you start. It’s how you finish.”
Join us on Phillies Gameday Central as The Inquirer’s Scott Lauber brings you live coverage at noon Saturday from London, where the Phillies face off against the Mets. He’ll be joined by Phillies beat writer Alex Coffey, while he shares his adventures in the city along with the latest news on the team. Be sure to tune in for this special international edition of Gameday Central!