The Phillies’ Trea Turner might be baseball’s fastest runner. So why isn’t he stealing more bases?

Trea Turner punched a single through the left side of the infield last Sunday in Colorado. The Phillies trailed, 2-0, in the third inning, but had runners on the corners with one out and the go-ahead run at the plate.

And so it began, a debate that stirs within Turner: steal, or no steal?

“I was like, ‘Man, I kind of want to go right here,’” the star shortstop said this week, recounting the dialogue with first base coach Paco Figueroa. “‘It’s not really a good situation to steal. It’s not really worth it. But I kind of want to, and I feel like this is a time where, if I do steal and a bloop single happens, two runs are big.’”

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Turner thought some more before talking himself out of it. He stayed put. And two batters later, the inning ended with his standing at first base.

Of all the underwhelming aspects of Turner’s first season with the Phillies — take your pick from the .262 average entering the weekend (he’s a .300 career hitter) to the 15 extra-base hits or the .707 on-base plus slugging percentage — here’s the real head-scratcher: Through Thursday, 46 players had more stolen bases than Turner had steal attempts (five).

What makes it such a mystery is that Turner may be the fastest runner in the majors. His average sprint speed is 30 feet per second, according to Statcast, trailing only Arizona’s Corbin Carroll (30.1) in the National League. He also leads the majors in steals (233) since 2016 and has the eighth-highest success rate (85.35%) among the 135 players with at least 50 attempts.

And, as you might have heard, Major League Baseball instituted new rules this season to hasten the pace of the play and create more action. Among the changes: larger bases that shave the distance between the edges of the bags by 4½ inches, and limits on the pitcher to two pickoff attempts (or step-offs) per plate appearance.

In theory, stolen base attempts should be up. In practice, they are. Through Thursday, there had been 0.89 attempts per game, up from 0.68 last season. The success rate was up, too, from 75.4% last year to 78.7%.

Turner hasn’t caught on to the craze. But why? Before a game this week in San Francisco, he offered a thoughtful explanation for his apparent restraint.

“One, I haven’t gotten on base very much,” he said, not proudly. “Two, I feel like a lot of times that I’ve been on base, the score hasn’t been great [for stealing]. And three, I like to let these guys hit behind me, especially since Bryce [Harper] has come back.”

But in the next breath, Turner, as intelligent and self-aware as he is talented, made a concession.

“Definitely I need to steal more — and I want to steal more,” he said. “It’s just, I feel like right now we can’t give away outs on the basepaths. It’s kind of a negative way to look at it or a bad thought process. But it’s kind of how it feels.”

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Let Turner’s reluctance serve as a reminder that base-stealing is about more than incentives created by new rules or even elite speed.

It’s about attitude.

Rickey Henderson became the all-time leader in steals because he was fast, but also because he dared opponents to throw him out, even though everyone from the pitcher and catcher to the fans waiting in line for a hot dog knew he was going to run.

In the analytics era, with so much emphasis on gaining the tiniest advantages at the margins, players have grown up believing that the stolen base is a low-percentage play. It’s a mentality that’s difficult to shake.

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“I’ve said a thousand times, it’s just about scoring the run, not about me stealing the base,” Turner said. “Sometimes I probably should go more. But I feel like the risk doesn’t outweigh the reward. If Bryce hits a ball in the gap, or [Kyle] Schwarber or whoever, I can score from first base.

“Hindsight’s 20/20, right? The one time they pick off and I get out, then I look like the idiot. But then if it does work out, I’m a genius. It’s tough.”

It’s a lot to think about while standing at first base.

Turner is hardly alone in his skepticism of the stolen base. A generation of players seems to feel the same way.

Consider this: In 1983, eight players stole at least 50 bases; in 2003, three players reached that mark. There hasn’t been a 50-steal season since 2017. When Turner led the league in steals in 2018 and 2021, he had 43 and 32, respectively.

Turner figures it wasn’t a coincidence that he swiped a career-high 46 bags in 2017, when Davey Lopes was his first base coach with the Nationals. Lopes is a base-stealing savant, piling up 557 in 16 seasons before mentoring Brady Anderson, Shane Victorino, Dee Strange-Gordon, and others during a 25-year coaching career, including four seasons with the Phillies.

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“He was great because he’d look at me and say, ‘Why are you still standing here?’” Turner said. “He wanted me to run. He was old school, man. Not a lot of numbers or anything. Just pure confidence, almost. Just having him in my ear and saying, ‘Just go, just trust it and go,’ was kind of a change of pace. I always kind of need someone to push me.”

Figueroa takes a more holistic approach. In his fifth season with the Phillies, the 40-year-old former minor-league utilityman has coached baserunning and outfield for Gabe Kapler, Joe Girardi, and now Rob Thomson. He preaches aggressiveness on the bases, but it often translates more into, say, going first to third, or second to home, on a single.

When Figueroa judges baserunning, he points not to steals but rather BsR, an all-encompassing metric developed by Fangraphs that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, taking extra bases, making outs on the bases, and other plays into a valuation of runs above and below average.

Turner, for what it’s worth, rates at 2.5 runs above average as a baserunner this season, in part because he has taken an extra base 75% of the time.

“I take pride in guys’ being real good baserunners,” Figueroa said. “If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But that’s my strategy. That’s what wins games. Are you able to beat the chopper, beat the force, keep the inning going? Do you know when to tag, when not to tag? Do you know when to score from first?

“Stolen bases, we talk about it, they’re great. For a guy like Trea, it’s nice to have it. But at the end of the day, if it’s not there, there are other ways to impact the game.”

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Turner admits there are times when he could be more aggressive. In particular, he said he may look to steal third base more often with less than two out to put himself in position to score on a sacrifice fly.

“He’s got game-changing speed. He knows it. We know it,” Phillies general manager Sam Fuld said. “He’s aware of the potential advantages there. I think the opportunities just haven’t necessarily presented themselves. It’s something that we’re all aware of and all continuing to evaluate.”

But Fuld also noted that there are times when it may be more beneficial for Turner to stay put. The elimination of the shift has restored the hole between first and second base, which gets even larger when the first baseman is holding a runner. And Turner most often hits in front of a lefty. Initially, it was Schwarber; lately, it’s been Harper.

There are other factors at play. Given the limits on pickoff throws, Figueroa said he has seen pitchers use a slide step more often with Turner on first base, which speeds their delivery. Pitchers who get the ball to the catcher in 1.3 seconds or less are generally accepted as being quick to the plate.

Turner also isn’t giving himself as many opportunities. His on-base percentage is .305, far off his career .353 mark. He does tend to run more later in the season. Of his 235 career steals, only 64 have come before the end of May.

“He’s going to still be aggressive. He’s going to still look to steal,” Figueroa said. “I tell Trea every day, ‘You’re going to steal a lot of bases. Don’t worry about it.’”

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Turner walked and stole second in the first inning last Saturday night in Colorado with Harper at the plate against Rockies pitcher Ryan Feltner, then scored from second on a single by Nick Castellanos.

Incredibly, it was Turner’s first steal since April 19.

“It felt good,” he said. “I want to go more. Once we get rolling and start winning some games and I can hopefully find first base more, that rhythm will come back. I mean, that needs to be part of my game, especially.”

As it should be. Baseball is changing in ways that should favor Turner, provided he’s willing to take advantage of it.

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