The Phillies have a $300 million Trea Turner problem. The only solution is ... hope?

They can’t trade him, and they don’t seem willing to move him from shortstop to the outfield.

Trea Turner strikes out in the fifth inning in Game 4 of the NLDS.Read moreMonica Herndon / Staff Photographer

Published Oct. 10, 2024, 12:23 p.m. ET

Trea Turner had better leave Philly this weekend. He’d better turn off his social media, and ignore all things Phillies-related until the full team reports to spring training in Clearwater in late February. If he doesn’t, it’s going to be a long, hard winter for Trea.

Somebody’s got to bear the burden of the Phillies’ first-round failure, and manager Rob Thomson can only absorb so many blows. Turner’s honeymoons are over (for the first time in Philly history, a player got two; after his 2023 slump, he got a sympathy ovation).

Turner wasn’t the only star who burned out against the Mets in the NLDS, but he was the highest-paid. He also was the shortstop, and in a town that worships world champion shortstops who play great defense and walk the talk, all Trea’s going to hear this winter is how he isn’t Jimmy Rollins, and he damn sure ain’t Larry Bowa.

The biggest issue won’t be Turner’s lack of offense for two straight playoff disappointments, or even his deteriorating defensive skills. The issue will be the price tag.

The Phillies gave Turner $300 million over 11 years in 2022, his 30th year of life. He is untradable, even if he did waive his no-trade clause: partly because nobody’s going to pay him that kind of money for the sort of production he has delivered in his two seasons as a Phillie; and partly because Bryce Harper, the tail that wags the dog, wants him to stay.

It was the second-richest deal in team history, behind Harper, to whom they gave $330 million and, clearly, a seat at the offseason table, since, at Harper’s suggestion, the Phillies extended J.T. Realmuto and signed Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and, yes, Turner, whom, in 2022, Harper called “my favorite player to watch.”

Harper might not be the best talent evaluator, but he has earned his seat at the table. He’s been a Phillies postseason stud for three years and a bargain since he signed six years ago. Turner has been a Phillies postseason dud for … well, really, for just nine playoff games.

It seems like more, right? The problem is, the Phillies lost seven of those nine games to clearly inferior teams: three apiece, first to the Diamondbacks in last year’s NLCS while blowing a 2-1 series lead, then to the Mets in this year’s NLDS, which ended Wednesday after the fourth game.

Turner went hitless in that fourth game, as he had done in four of the previous eight. He hits second in the lineup, so that production is bad. Turner is hitting .147 in his last nine Phillies playoff games, in which they are, again, 2-7.

There are three big-money names in the Phillies’ lineup besides Turner and Harper, who has been epically productive the past three playoff runs.

Nick Castellanos, quirky and inconsistent, almost won Game 2 of the NLDS by himself, and between his four other walk-off hits this season and his work to improve himself as a right fielder, Casty won’t be blamed.

Kyle Schwarber didn’t get a hit after the third inning of the series, but he led off the series with a home run and later singled, and there was so much noise created by the leaky bullpen that Schwarbs likely will go unscathed as well.

Finally, so little is now expected of 33-year-old catcher J.T. Realmuto, he’ll skate, too; don’t forget, Realmuto underwent knee surgery in the middle of the season. He went hitless in the series, but he got 4⅓ scoreless innings from Ranger Suárez in his only start of the postseason, navigated Zack Wheeler through seven scoreless in Game 1 after overseeing Wheeler’s Cy Young-worthy season, and coaxed Cristopher Sánchez through a five-inning, two-run Game 2, which the Phillies won.

No, this offseason’s going to focus on Turner.

It’s too bad, really.

Turner can’t work any harder to hit better. He already puts in a ton of time. Besides, these issues seemed to be behind him. He began his career as a chronic playoff bust, hitting .238 with a .614 OPS and just three home runs in 43 playoff games with the Nationals and the Dodgers, so imagine the Phillies’ delight when, last year, he hit .460 with three homers and a 1.349 OPS in his first 10 playoff games and got at least one hit in every game.

The next nine haven’t gone as well.

Turner is, arguably, the worst everyday defensive shortstop in the game. His defensive wins above replacement (dWAR) of minus-. 07 this season ranked last among shortstops who played the position at least as many as his 118 games (he missed several weeks with a hamstring strain). His 17 errors ranked ninth in all of baseball, but he played far fewer games than the eight players with more errors, and he probably should have had at least five more, since no player benefited from generous scoring decisions more than did Turner.

That said, the Phillies knew that if Turner could simply be an average shortstop, then he would approach justifying his salary. His bat was supposed to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. For some reason, they won’t consider moving him to left field, either, even though his speed, his ability to track fly balls, and his experience playing outfield make this an obvious solution, especially considering that they really don’t have an everyday leftfielder.

Their best defensive player is Edmundo Sosa, a natural shortstop who hit .254 with a .727 OPS in 574 plate appearances over the last two seasons, this year mostly as Turner’s understudy. He was a massive defensive upgrade, and has never gotten a chance to play every day. He’s only 28, and he is under team control until 2027. He seems like a natural solution, but the Phillies are usually terrified to upset their stars even if it means the team will be better.

That being the case, Phillies can only hope Turner becomes a batting title candidate and a postseason monster, because he won’t get any better in the field. Thirty-one-year-old shortstops with dodgy fundamentals, modest range, and an average arm don’t get better when they turn 32. All the Phillies can do is hope that his 10-game playoff surge in 2023 resurfaces in 2025 — that he’s grown out of his previous five trips to the postseason, and that he’s experiencing a playoff slump.

Because they owe him $27,272,727.00 in each of the next nine seasons.