Phillies-Marlins: Oddsmakers see low-scoring game Friday given pitching matchup

How’s this for a pitching matchup on the Friday night heading into the Major League Baseball All-Star break: Zack Wheeler of the Phillies vs. Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins in a matchup of two playoff teams (if the season ended today, which it doesn’t).

It’s great on reputation, but neither pitcher has been at his best so far in 2023, though Wheeler has been much better than his counterpart.

Alcantara, last year’s National League Cy Young winner, has had a rough go in the first half. He’s 3-7 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 107⅔ innings. Last year, the 27-year-old righty had a 2.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 207 strikeouts in nearly 230 innings.

The Marlins’ ace has been rather bad recently, too. Saturday marked the fifth time he allowed four or more runs over his last seven starts.

Sounds like a bad time to be welcoming to Miami a Phillies team that has won 12 straight road games. The oddsmakers seem to agree as far as the money line goes. As for the over/under, the reputation of each pitcher prevails.

Here’s a look at Phillies-Marlins odds for Friday night’s marquee pitching matchup at loanDepot park.

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM, current at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Money line: Phillies -130; Marlins +110

Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+140); Marlins +1.5 (-165)

Total: 7.5 runs (over +100, under -120)

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Friday night marks just the 10th time in 2023 a Phillies game has a run total under eight, according to Vegas Insider. Their opening-day loss in Texas closed at 6.5 runs. The Rangers won, 11-7. Eight other times, the run total closed at 7.5. The under has hit in six of those eight games, including three consecutive times — the most recent being a 3-2 win over Oakland on June 18.

The starting pitcher in that mid-June game? Wheeler, who threw six shutout innings to bring his ERA to a season-low 3.58.

Two starts and 10⅓ innings later, that ERA is up to 4.03. Wheeler has allowed nine runs and 16 hits over that stretch.

You could say Wheeler is due, but that same logic would apply to Alcantara.

The Phillies are no stranger to Alcantara. This marks the sixth straight series vs. Miami in which they are running into him. The Phillies shelled Alcantara for nine runs on 10 hits in four innings during a 15-3 win in April.

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Miami entered the season with 40/1 odds to win the NL East and was around +500 to reach the postseason. ESPN projections gave the Marlins a 29% chance to reach the playoffs and had Miami as an 81-81 team.

The Marlins have 51 wins in 89 games, and as of Friday morning, Caesars had them at -240 to make the playoffs, implying a 70.6% chance. FanGraphs, meanwhile, projects Miami’s playoff chances at 68.9%.

Luis Arráez and Jorge Soler have been carrying Miami’s offense, while the Marlins have gotten strong pitching despite the struggles from their ace.

Has Miami been on the right side of some baseball luck? TeamRankings has the Marlins third on its luck ratings.

There’s this, too: The Marlins are the only playoff-contending team as of Friday morning to have a negative run-differential (-10).

Another sweep this weekend and the Phillies would find themselves in solo second behind the surging Braves.