Are the Phillies back? Look past the big bats and focus on Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola

The home runs got most of the attention because everybody still digs the long ball. And because a team that was built to slug hadn’t been slugging. So, sure, an eight-homer binge in three games over the weekend — one more than the Phillies hit in the previous nine games combined — was a relevant story.

It just wasn’t the story.

If the Phillies really got their groove back at Citizens Bank Park and end up parlaying a three-game winning streak over the noncontending Rockies into all the bigger and better things that are expected from them this summer, it will be because they got more of this:

And this:

It wasn’t always pretty. Nola gave up a three-run homer in the first inning Friday night. Wheeler loaded the bases with no outs and gave up three runs in a 34-pitch fourth inning Sunday despite not allowing a hard-hit ball.

» READ MORE: Can AI pitching technology help Bryce Harper return to the Phillies even sooner?

Still, it was progress. Nola didn’t yield a hit after the second inning and got a double play in the sixth to escape the sort of jam (two on, one out) that has led to his early-season undoings. Wheeler regrouped to complete six innings by throwing more pitches than in any start since July 23, 2021.

Nola and Wheeler typically don’t register on the Phillies’ list of concerns. But this isn’t a typical season for the co-aces, both of whom started playoff games — into November, no less — for the first time in their careers and had less recovery time than ever before.

So, while manager Rob Thomson could confidently predict the other day that the Phillies’ boppers would come around even without Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins — “They come in bunches,” he said, noting the homer-hitting track records of Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and others — there isn’t as much history to forecast how Nola and Wheeler will come back from the longest season of their lives.

”I feel like I’m where I want to be,” Wheeler said last week. “I think everything’s finally starting to sync up a little bit. It’s good. I don’t feel any lingering effects — that I know of.”

Wheeler missed 23 bats against the Rockies, including six with his newly minted sweeper, a sign that he may be closer to dominating. But his walk rate is also up to 8.5% from 5.5% over the last three seasons, which indicates that he isn’t razor sharp.

For Nola, the issue is familiar: Finding the right pitch mix to augment a fastball that doesn’t overpower. But the average velocity on Nola’s heater is down a tick to 91.7 mph from 92.8 mph over the last three years. He leaned more on his signature curveball against the Rockies, but also has thrown fewer sinkers than usual.

”He’s got four really good pitches, so we can go a lot of different directions late in the count,” Realmuto said. “And I feel like we’ve given up a few too many two-strike hits this season. Trying to just stay with his strengths and get a little more swing and miss with two strikes as opposed to just attacking guys and letting them put the ball in play.”

More swing and miss means fewer baserunners, as important as ever for Nola, who has struggled with the faster pace of the pitch clock. Wheeler also has mentioned feeling more rushed. Maybe they’re finally starting to catch their breath.

The Phillies’ fate rests more on their two best starting pitchers than their sluggers’ launch angle and exit velocity. So, they’ll take the improvement that Nola and Wheeler showed against the Rockies and hope it continues Friday and Saturday in a World Series rematch in Houston.

A few other Phillies observations:

Castellanos hit second or third in the batting order in 91.4% of his starts from 2018 to 2021. In 158 starts with the Phillies, he has hit mostly in the cleanup (53.8%) and No. 5 (20.9%) spots. And that wouldn’t be especially notable except that he has brought it up multiple times recently in discussing his evolving plate approach.

» READ MORE: How Nick Castellanos’ time in Cincinnati provided a road map for success with the Phillies

”Hitting later in the lineup, hitting 4, 5, 6, I’m going to get pitched to differently than when I was in the front of the lineup when I was with other teams,” Castellanos said. “If I’m just blindly attacking the ball, taking aggressive swings, teams like last year are going to take advantage of me. It’s just finding that happy balance of staying within myself.”

Castellanos is now adjusting better. His walk rate has risen to 9.8%, up from 5.2% last season and 6.5% for his career. But he’s still a self-described “swing-first guy.” And he did have three of his four most productive seasons in the upper third of the lineup, slashing .290/.345/.527 with 98 homers and leading the majors with 153 doubles from 2018-22.

It begs the question of whether Thomson should flip Kyle Schwarber and Castellanos in the No. 3 and 4 spots.

”First off, wherever the Phillies want me to hit, I’m going to do it with a smile,” Castellanos said. “Just me being a swing-first guy, I’ve always benefited from having the most [lineup] protection as possible. Usually when you’re in the front load of the lineup, as soon as you fall behind, there’s a little bit more of an urgency to see pitches over the plate. Being a swing-first guy, that’s when I would do a lot of my damage.

”But the beautiful thing about baseball is that you continuously learn and adjust and find new ways to have success.”

Schwarber recently downplayed wearing a brace over his right knee, a measure that he labeled as “proactive” to help manage soreness. But he also has moved gingerly on the bases and in left field. The Phillies have used Schwarber as the designated hitter in 15 of 23 games.

Another reason why it would help if Harper is able to eventually play defense — be it first base or right field — after making his initial return to the lineup as the DH.

» READ MORE: Trade of Logan O’Hoppe for Brandon Marsh is looking like a win-win for Phillies and Angels

Don’t look now, but Craig Kimbrel is on a roll. In his last six appearances — all scoreless — the active leader in career saves has allowed three hits and one walk and struck out nine of 18 batters. Kimbrel looked as sharp as he has all season Saturday in recording save No. 396. He cranked up his fastball to 96 mph and struck out Jurickson Profar on a nasty curve.

”His stuff is really good, and he’s really pounding the zone,” Thomson said. “His breaking ball is just filthy right now.”

Especially against left-handed hitters. Lefties batted .314 and slugged .543 against Kimbrel’s curve last season. He hasn’t given up a hit on a heater to a lefty yet this season, in part because he’s landing his curveball more effectively.

Just as encouraging, Seranthony Domínguez was strong in the second of back-to-back games, touching 100 mph for the first time this season Saturday.

Eleven months ago, left-hander José Alvarado got sent to the minors with a 7.62 ERA. Since returning, he has a 1.49 ERA in 52 appearances and has struck out 84 of 185 batters (45.4%).

As Realmuto said, “It’s been a pretty incredible transformation.”

» READ MORE: Gregory Soto is finding his groove with the Phillies in new role