Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are ‘a little off’ to start the season. Has the pitch clock played a role?
The Phillies had a plan for their co-aces coming off a World Series run. But there is another variable at play for every pitcher in 2023.
Zack Wheeler put it perfectly.
“Something,” he said Friday night, “was just a little off.”
Wheeler allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits in 5⅓ innings against the Red Sox, yet somehow kept the Phillies in the game. He didn’t walk anyone but lacked command of his fastball. He was neither dominant nor dismal — and definitely not what everyone has come to expect over the last three seasons.
It has been that way for Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Through seven starts, the co-aces haven’t looked as sharp as usual, but they aren’t quite struggling, either. Nola began the week tied for the fifth-highest total of innings (42⅔) in the National League; Wheeler ranked 10th in strikeouts (46). But they will drag 4.64 and 4.26 ERAs, respectively, into home starts Tuesday night and Wednesday against the heavy-hitting Blue Jays.
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Things could be worse. They also could be a lot better. It’s all just ... a little off.
It’s reductionistic to pin the Phillies’ 16-19 record on Nola and Wheeler. But it also isn’t happenstance that the No. 1 and 1A starters have made back-to-back quality starts only twice (against the Rockies and Astros), and those starts coincided with the team’s two streaks of three wins or more. It isn’t a stretch, then, to say that the defending NL champs won’t go anywhere unless their two best pitchers are able to get on a roll.
This week would be a nice time to start.
“For sure, I see them making progress inside of the season but also just getting back to who they are,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said Sunday. “They’ve been better — a lot better.”
Said catcher J.T. Realmuto: “I do feel like they’re heading on the right track.”
New pace affecting pitchers
Here’s the thing: Expectations may need to be recalibrated. Not for Nola and Wheeler, specifically, but for every starter in baseball. Because the sport is different in 2023, and much less forgiving to pitchers.
The Phillies anticipated that Nola and Wheeler may encounter early-season bumps after playing until the sixth game of the World Series — on the fifth night of November. Cotham studied recent examples of pitchers who thrived after a shorter-than-usual offseason. Head athletic trainer Paul Buchheit and director of strength and conditioning Morgan Gregory weighed in. Manager Rob Thomson and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski shared anecdotal experience from past years.
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Ultimately, the Phillies devised a plan. Nola and Wheeler wouldn’t alter the timing of their offseason programs, but rather ramp it up more gradually than usual.
“It’s worked out, definitely from a health perspective,” Cotham said. “It felt like they were prepared but not overtaxed coming into camp. We’re here.”
But there’s another variable at play. The pitch clock, which requires pitchers to deliver the ball in 15 seconds with the bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on, has had a wide-ranging impact. Entering the week, the average starter’s ERA was 4.52 in the NL and 4.56 across the majors, up from 4.04 and 3.91 through the same date (May 7) last year.
“I definitely think it’s different for every pitcher,” Realmuto said, “but it’s harder on guys now.”
For one thing, pitchers who were always taught to slow the pace when runners reach base are permitted to step off the rubber only twice per plate appearance, including on pickoff throws. Thomson also noted that pitchers have less time to recover between innings because games are moving more quickly.
“They’ve never had to rush through things,” Realmuto said. “It’s always been a game where they control the speed, they control the pace. If they need to take a breath, if they need to take a second to think, it’s theirs to do. Now, it’s like they’re forced to get back on the mound and make a pitch. It’s a huge adjustment across the league. It’s not an easy thing to just pick up and start over.”
Especially for experienced pitchers who were set in their ways. (Max Scherzer has a 5.56 ERA through five starts for the Mets.) Nola, who turns 30 next month, was never the quickest worker. In spring training, he often noted that he found the clock to be a challenge. Wheeler, 33 in three weeks, said he felt rushed.
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Snowball effect
The clock may contribute to seemingly innocuous rallies spiraling because it’s more difficult to regroup with traffic on the bases. It happened to Nola in a nine-run fourth inning on opening day in Texas. The Phillies barely let Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, breathe during a five-run third inning and a four-run fifth on April 10 at Citizens Bank Park.
“It’s just the snowball effect,” Realmuto said. “It’s such a game of momentum now. And when a couple of guys get on, we haven’t done a good job of controlling the momentum. I feel like once [Nola and Wheeler] get a better feel for that, the stuff is obviously there and they’re competitors that are going to give us a lot of good innings this year.”
Indeed, the Phillies have seen signs that Nola and Wheeler are adjusting. Nola has figured out ways of slowing the game, whether it’s asking for a new baseball or getting a mound visit. His average fastball velocity is down a tick, partially by design. He has never overpowered hitters with velocity, and pacing himself early in a game may enable him to last longer.
“Even if the fastball’s a tick down, if it’s got jump, that’s all I really care about,” Nola said. “As long as I’m getting outs. Just got to keep grinding, keep pushing in the right direction and working at the command. The walks haven’t been my friend this year so far. I feel like I’m commanding the ball a little bit better.”
Nola hasn’t issued a walk in either of his last two starts. And while it hasn’t always been the sharpest (he allowed the Dodgers to whittle a 5-1 lead to 5-4 in an eventual walk-off loss last week), it has been markedly better. He has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts.
Wheeler, meanwhile, has incorporated a sweeper to help fend off right-handed hitters, who are slugging only .222 against it. But in assessing his first seven starts, two numbers stick out: a .340 batting average on balls in play and a strand rate of only 60%.
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His rotten luck was never more evident than an April 18 start against the White Sox, when he allowed six consecutive hits, four of which broke bats, in the third inning. Four of those runners wound up scoring.
“Those things happen. It just seems like they’ve happened kind of in a row,” Cotham said. “You scratch your head at them a little.”
But for as much head-scratching as Nola and Wheeler have prompted, the Phillies remain confident that things will begin to normalize, even in baseball’s new pitch-clock universe.
“I’ve never not been confident with Nola and Wheeler,” Cotham said. “They take care of their work so good. They’re obsessed at being really good at this thing.”
» READ MORE: Taijuan Walker is walking batters at the highest rate of his career. Here is how he’s trying to regain his command.
Extra bases
The Phillies traded triple-A right-hander James McArthur to the Royals for 19-year-old rookie-ball outfielder Junior Marin and cash considerations. McArthur was designated for assignment last week. ... Nola is scheduled to face Blue Jays right-hander Alek Manoah (1-2, 4.71 ERA) in the series opener at 6:40 p.m. Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park.