How do the Phillies chase a World Series title, and long-term winning? Follow the money.

The Phillies are built to win now, but Dave Dombrowski wants to give the franchise the financial framework to win well beyond the current core of stars.

Dave Dombrowski has assembled a team that is expected to contend for the World Series. But he's focused on a more ambitious challenge: Building an organization that can sustain success for more than a handful of years.Read moreHeather Khalifa / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published March 8, 2024, 1:07 p.m. ET

CLEARWATER, Fla. — Nine of the last 12 teams built by Dave Dombrowski made the playoffs, a run that cemented his future spot in the Hall of Fame. And those clubs’ yearly payrolls, calculated for the luxury tax, ranked 10th, eighth, eighth, third, fourth, fifth, first, fourth, and sixth in baseball.

Nobody ever doubted Dombrowski’s knack for persuading an owner to spend wads of money.

But despite the heights reached by his teams in Detroit and Boston, steep falls followed. After four division titles and a pennant from 2011 to 2014, the Tigers have had one winning season since. The Red Sox won back-to-back-to-back division crowns and the 2018 World Series, a gloriously brief precursor to last-place finishes in three of the last four years.

So, as the Phillies pressed down even harder on the World Series-or-bust pedal this week by doling out the fourth-highest annual salary ($42 million) in baseball history to ace Zack Wheeler, it was easy to wonder how long they can go before the massive bill racked up by Dombrowski and owner John Middleton finally comes due.

“I talked a lot about that with Dave, who, in turn, talked about that with Mr. Middleton,” said B.B. Abbott, Wheeler’s agent. “They seem confident they can take this window — we were calling it a ‘championship window’ — and put a really good team around [Wheeler] and on the field.”

And if the Phillies win a World Series or two with a star-laden core that figures to remain intact for two more seasons — and, in large part, through 2027 — a late-decade downturn would be easier to digest.

But in a conversation with The Inquirer this week, Dombrowski rejected the idea of a finite window of contention and outlined a more ambitious goal for the Phillies: building an organization that can sustain success over more than a handful of years.

“I think people, when they say ‘championship window,’ [they mean] with maybe this one group of players,” the Phillies’ 67-year-old president of baseball operations said. “That’s significantly different than being in a championship window, period. Maybe you have a down year mixed in somewhere because something happens. But you try to [contend] on a yearly basis. That’s the challenge of a good organization.

“Look at the Dodgers, right? They’ve been there for how many years? The Braves have been there how many years? That should ultimately be your goal, and that’s what you’re trying to accomplish.”

The Dodgers are baseball’s model of sustainability, with 11 postseason appearances in 11 years. The Braves, 6-for-6 in National League East titles since 2018, are close behind. And although both possess financial muscle, they are proof that staying on top requires shrewd scouting, drafting, and player development, and smart decision-making.

It also takes double vision — short- and long-term — to keep the whole thing from toppling like a Jenga tower.

To wit: It’s uncomfortable to spend a total of $66.57 million per year on two pitchers in their 30s, as the Phillies will for Wheeler and Aaron Nola from 2025 to 2027. But the risk is easier to bear if Andrew Painter and Mick Abel fulfill their top-prospect potential at the other end of the payroll spectrum.

“You can’t just go and sign every player for $25 million,” Dombrowski said. “Even clubs with a higher payroll than ours can’t afford to do that. Your goal is to continually keep that flow of talent coming.”

Planning ahead

In 2021, Dombrowski’s first year at the helm, the Phillies took the payroll to the edge of the luxury-tax threshold but didn’t cross it. They also missed the playoffs for a 10th consecutive season.

Everything changed in March 2022.

When baseball emerged from the owners’ 99-day lockout, a new collective bargaining agreement called for a 9.5% rise in the tax threshold. And Middleton handed the checkbook to Dombrowski to sign Kyle Schwarber (four years, $79 million) and Nick Castellanos (five years, $100 million).

The Phillies pushed the payroll from $209.37 million in 2021 to $244.41 million in 2022 and paid the luxury tax for the first time. They added Trea Turner (10 years, $300 million) before last season and brought the payroll in at $255.33 million. The opening-day projection after bringing back Nola and signing utility man Whit Merrifield: $260.9 million.

Dombrowski said he’s “very appreciative” of ownership’s generosity and the fans’ support. The Phillies drew more than 3 million fans last season, reaching the mark for the first time since 2013.

But Dombrowski also noted that the budget is “not unlimited.” He maintains three years’ worth of projections. Including Wheeler’s new contract, which takes effect next season, the Phillies already have $207.4 million in salary commitments for nine players in 2025.

“We had a number slotted for Zack,” Middleton said. “We now have not an estimate but an actual number, and Dave’s already gone back to his forecast and said, ‘OK, how does this work? Where does this leave us?’ ”

It seems likely the Phillies will surpass the $281 million third-tier tax threshold next year, a transgression that would push back their first pick in the 2026 draft by 10 spots.

Beyond that, big contracts could begin to roll off the books. J.T. Realmuto and Schwarber are eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, Castellanos and Taijuan Walker after 2026. At the same time, though, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and other young players will be due raises through salary arbitration or possible contract extensions.

It’s essential, then, that the farm system churns out major leaguers. The Phillies believe Abel could make his debut later this season. Painter isn’t expected to pitch in games until 2025 after Tommy John elbow surgery last summer, but when he does return, he has top-of-the-rotation talent.

Most of the Phillies’ best prospects are still in the low minors, which means, if they continue to progress, center fielder Justin Crawford, infielder Aidan Miller, and others could be ready to step in as some of the current major-league core is exiting.

“That’s what our thought process is, sure,” Dombrowski said. “Because you can’t pay, let’s call it $25 million a year, at every position. It’s just impossible. So, you have to do that type of planning.

“Hopefully it works out, and all of a sudden Mick Abel’s in your starting rotation, and then Andrew Painter’s in that, and then Justin Crawford’s there and Aidan Miller, and some of the other players we signed from Latin America. You combine those with veteran players, and that’s what you want to accomplish.”

Seeing it through

The perception is that Dombrowski left the Tigers and Red Sox with high payrolls, poor farm systems, and little chance but to crater in his wake.

But to be fair, he wasn’t given much chance to transition those clubs beyond their so-called championship windows.

The Tigers replaced Dombrowski in August 2015, midway through their first losing season since 2008, rather than extending his contract to lead a rebuilding project.

Four years later, the Red Sox fired Dombrowski less than 11 months after winning 108 games and the World Series. It remains a touchy subject. Dombrowski has mostly declined to comment on how things ended in Boston other than telling USA Today in 2022, “I don’t think I was treated right.”

Dombrowski signed a five-year, $20 million contract with the Phillies in December 2020 and got an extension after the 2022 World Series. He’s under contract through 2027.

“When you have somebody like Dave Dombrowski, who has demonstrated, as did Pat [Gillick], that he’s a really astute judge of talent and an astute assembler of talent to form a cohesive team, you give him a lot of latitude,” Middleton said. “Conversely, when he comes to you and says, ‘John, I could spend the money, but I’m just not buying anything meaningful for it,’ I just think of it that way.”

Middleton says he will continue listening to Dombrowski for as long as Dombrowski wants the job. Whenever he decides he’s had enough, the Phillies will have transitioned to their next chapter.

By then, the window will either remain open with young players surrounding Bryce Harper, Turner, and Nola, or it will have slammed shut on them. The Phillies will either be in rebuilding mode, or they will be the Dodgers and Braves.

“I think we’re getting to that point,” Dombrowski said. “Our player-development, scouting, Latin American operations, the whole bit, have done a tremendous job for us. We haven’t reached the point of those clubs where they’ve done for 10 years, let’s say. But that’s what you’re trying to, there’s no question about it.”