The Phillies don’t quite have the ingredients for a World Series-winning team
The Phillies have their own championship concoction brewing. No telling yet how it’s going to taste, but the recipe reads something like this.
There are many ways to build a championship team. There are nearly as many ways to build a championship team as there are championship teams. There is the Draft Tom Brady Way, which worked six times for the New England Patriots over an 18-year span. There is the Sign LeBron James Way, which was a hit for the 2012 and 2013 Miami Heat and the 2020 COVID-bubbled Los Angeles Lakers. There is the Bring LeBron James Back Way, which allowed the Cleveland Cavaliers to win their only NBA championship, in 2016.
Those methods are easy enough, relatively speaking. If you happen to have an all-time great player and you happen to compete in a sport in which one athlete can have an outsized influence on a game’s outcome — a sport such as basketball and, to a lesser degree, football — you’re already ahead of the field. For most teams that consider themselves capable of winning a championship, though, success or failure in the pursuit of a title often comes down to alchemy, to a mixture of elements and ingredients that appeared perfect only in retrospect. Oh, sure, signing a big-time running back, drafting a couple of defensive backs, and turning a special-teams guy/edge rusher into a middle linebacker was exactly what the Eagles needed to do to win the Super Bowl. Everybody knew that. I mean, duh.
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The 2025 Phillies have their own concoction brewing. No telling yet how it’s going to taste, but in its broadest terms, the recipe reads something like this:
Six highly paid star players whom the Phillies have acquired within the last six years, either by signing them as free agents or giving up resources in trades. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Zack Wheeler, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto: All of them are old enough and have been around long enough that it’s fair to wonder if and when they will no longer be in the primes of their careers.
Realmuto, as a catcher who turned 34 earlier this month, might already be past his. He was behind the plate for just 99 games last season, and his OPS dropped for the second straight year. Wheeler, who turns 35 in May, is the eldest of this group. Turner is the youngest of them, and, though the Phillies want him to use his speed to be more disruptive as a hitter and base runner, he will turn 32 in June. Yes, a hamstring injury last season hampered him, but it’s rare a player who, no matter how healthy he might be, gets faster after turning 32. Each of these six might remain at or near the same level he has been during this recent period of Phillies contention. But the question isn’t whether the clock is ticking for any or all of them. It is. The question is when the alarm will sound. For one or more of them, it might go off sometime this season.
One franchise mainstay — drafted here, developed here, a fixture in the starting rotation here for a decade — in Aaron Nola. His durability speaks for itself; he hasn’t made fewer than 32 starts in any of the last six full seasons. (The only exception was the COVID-shortened 2020 season). His consistency is a different matter. Twice in the last four years, he has finished a season with an ERA of 4.46 or higher. He will be 32 in June. The Phillies need the Aaron Nola who is solid and often outstanding. They cannot afford the Aaron Nola who surrenders too many two-strike hits and home runs.
One newly added starting pitcher in Jesús Luzardo, who appeared in just 12 games last season because of a lumbar stress reaction.
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Four probable members of the starting lineup and two pitchers whom the Phillies would like to be regular starters in the rotation, all of whom are question marks to one degree or another. Are Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm still ascending, or has their progress flatlined? Can Brandon Marsh be more productive against right-handed pitching and even an average hitter against left-handed pitching? Can Johan Rojas be even an average hitter? Will Ranger Suárez’s back problems keep him on the injured list for a long stretch? Can Cristopher Sánchez duplicate or improve on his excellent 2024 season?
The bullpen? Flavor as necessary with lefties, righties, veterans, rookies. Just make sure the spice rack has plenty of options at all times.
The possible secret ingredient: the emergence of a first-year standout, a touted prospect who makes a midseason debut and immediately proves he belongs in the majors. The names here are obvious: Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, and, of course, Andrew Painter.
That’s quite a stew. That’s a team with a lot that can go right and a lot that might not. Let’s say 92 victories, a wild-card berth, and a divisional-round exit for the 2025 Phillies, then a winter of decisions about what to do with the leftovers.