Phillies’ shortstop search: Xander Bogaerts’ offense is elite, but will he need to change positions?

Dave Dombrowski and Bogaerts have a history, but there are other factors to consider if the Phillies decide to pursue him.

Xander Bogaerts has won five Silver Slugger awards, more than any other active shortstop.Read moreMichael Dwyer / AP

by Scott Lauber

Published Nov. 22, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ET

Second in a four-part series on the star free-agent shortstops who are expected to draw interest from numerous teams, including the Phillies.

Dave Dombrowski neither drafted nor oversaw the development of Xander Bogaerts. But by April 2019, Dombrowski’s fourth and final season at the helm of the Boston Red Sox’ baseball operations, he keenly understood what the shortstop represented to the team and the city.

“He’s really what the foundation of an organization is all about,” Dombrowski said then.

So, after locking up Bogaerts to a six-year, $120 million extension with the Red Sox, Dombrowski probably never imagined getting another chance to sign him. But that deal, finalized five days into the 2019 season, included an opt-out clause after 2022. And here’s Bogaerts, back on the market at a time when the Dombrowski-run Phillies are looking for a shortstop.

Isn’t that convenient?

When Bogaerts signed his most recent contract, Dombrowski called him “one of the top players in the game of baseball.” That holds true now, too. He’s a lifetime .292 hitter and has the third-most hits (1,270) and 12th-most wins above replacement (33.9) of any player over the last eight seasons. He also has two World Series rings (2013 and 2018) compared to one apiece for the other star free-agent shortstops: Carlos Correa (2017 Astros), Trea Turner (2019 Nationals), and Dansby Swanson (2021 Braves).

But before anyone assumes that Dombrowski would do a long-term deal with Bogaerts now simply because he made one previously, there are other factors to consider. For one thing, Bogaerts, 30, is eight months older than Turner. Swanson will play at 29 next season; Correa is only 28.

Here, though, is the biggest question: Will Bogaerts age out of shortstop in a few years?

“I’d envision another two to four years,” said one talent evaluator from a National League team. “I’m sure the naysayers will question his range, which I don’t buy. His great feel, instincts and poise enable him to always be where he needs to be.”

That has been a prevailing opinion throughout Bogaerts’ career. The analytics community dings him for his defense, but the eye test has always treated him more kindly. Red Sox officials often praised him for being steady, even though he ranked 51 runs worse than the average shortstop since 2013, according to Sports Info Solutions’ defensive runs saved.

But even the metrics agreed that Bogaerts had his best defensive season this year. He finished at five outs above average, according to Statcast, and four runs better than average in defensive runs saved.

Bogaerts told The Athletic that he improved his pre-pitch routine and adopted a narrower stance to allow for more mobility in his hips. Maybe those changes will help him in the future. But his limited range was probably aided by better positioning, which may be mitigated now that restrictions to the shift will force shortstops to line up on the left side of second base.

Regardless, Bogaerts is defensively inferior to Correa and Swanson, both of whom are Gold Glove winners. Dombrowski knows Bogaerts’ abilities and shortcomings as well as any executive. And before the 2021 season, he brought up Bogaerts as a point of comparison to Didi Gregorius.

“In a lot of ways, you’d say there’s a lot of similarities between the two of them in that they catch what they get to,” Dombrowski said. “They position well, they work hard. They’re smart.”

And Bogaerts’ offense has always made up for a lot.

Bogaerts has won five Silver Slugger awards, more than all active shortstops. (Only Barry Larkin, Cal Ripken Jr., and Alex Rodriguez have more.) He’s coming off his lowest full-season home-run total (15) and hard-hit rate (39.5%) since 2017, but wrist and shoulder injuries likely explain those dips.

With a career strikeout rate of only 18.9%, including 18.7% this year, and a knack for driving the ball the other way from the right side of the plate, Bogaerts would fit nicely in the No. 2 spot in the Phillies’ order, between lefty-hitting mashers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

If necessary, the Phillies could use Edmundo Sosa as a late-game defensive replacement at shortstop. And if Bogaerts eventually has to move to third base, a position he played when he got called up in 2013, would it be a deal-breaker? The Phillies could eventually move Alec Bohm to first base, especially if Rhys Hoskins leaves as a free agent after next season or becomes a designated hitter, and go with Bryson Stott and Sosa in the middle infield.

It’s possible that Bogaerts winds up right back with the Red Sox, his only organization since he signed as a 16-year-old out of Aruba for $410,000 in 2009. He doesn’t much like change and is fiercely loyal, although a lowball offer last spring to tack on one year to his existing contract may have chipped away at that fidelity.

Bogaerts has also seen Boston divorce other long-tenured members of their championship core, from Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vázquez to Andrew Benintendi and, of course, Mookie Betts. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom recently labeled Bogaerts as “Option A” and “our top priority,” though it remains to be seen how much the Sox will sweeten their offer.

It’s clear that Bogaerts won’t command as much as Turner or Correa, both of whom may approach $300 million. But for, say, $175 million to $200 million over seven or eight years, is it worth overlooking the defensive uncertainty?

“I don’t worry about Bogaerts not playing shortstop, honestly,” the NL talent evaluator said. “[Marlins shortstop] Miggy Rojas is 33 and still makes all the plays.”