On Yamamoto, Zack Wheeler, and the Phillies’ pursuit of stupid spending status

Pardon me while I take a few minutes to unpack the Yoshinobu Yamamoto news.

I didn’t think the Phillies had it in them. The early-offseason chatter was just that. Chatter. The idea that the Phillies were preparing an aggressive bid for a 25-year-old Japanese starter was a classic hot stove cocktail: one part wishful thinking mixed with two parts market manipulation. If you can’t beat ‘em, drive up their cost of doing business. That kind of thing.

Now? I suppose I have to take John Middleton at his word. He sure sounded like a guy who was in it to win it when he talked about Yamamoto with The Inquirer’s Scott Lauber, who reported a juicy little tidbit in the recap of his wide-ranging interview with the Phillies’ managing partner. That 12-year, $325 million contract that Yamamoto ended up landing from the Dodgers? The Phillies’ offer was actually higher.

» READ MORE: Owner John Middleton on Phillies’ huge offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, saving the ‘powder’ for July, and more

Keep in mind, Yamamoto didn’t make his decision until after the Phillies had signed Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million deal. In other words, they were both willing and able to enter a season with four starting pitchers making a combined $85-plus million. We can also surmise that they were willing to carry a 2024 million payroll that was (at least) in the neighborhood of $16 million higher than it is now. The math I’m using: Yamamoto’s $27 million AAV with the Dodgers minus the $11 million the Phillies subsequently spent on Whit Merrifield, Spencer Turnbull and Kolby Allard.

That boingggg you hear is coming from Zack Wheeler and his agents.

More on that in a sec. First, though, let’s give Middleton and the Phillies their due. The organization is a decade behind most of the other big-market clubs in the international markets. Granted, the Japanese market is a different beast from the Caribbean. The Phillies face some serious competitive disadvantages in both location and demographics compared to teams that play in New York City and on the West Coast. But at least they are trying.

Obviously, Yamamoto is a risk. He plays a position that is inherently volatile with regard to both health and performance. He has never faced big league hitters. He is only a year younger than Daisuke Matsuzaka was when he signed with the Red Sox during the offseason before the 2007 season. If Boston had committed 12 years and $325 million to Dice-K, they would have still been paying him $27 million in 2019, five years after he threw his last big league pitch.

Granted, inflation is a thing. Twelve years from now, $27 million might be enough to pick up the check at Panera. So here’s a better example. It has been 12 years since a 25-year-old Yu Darvish signed his first big league contract with the Rangers. In those 12 years, he has made roughly $190 million, or a little more than half of what the Dodgers just agreed to pay Yamamoto over the next 12 years.

Point is, maybe you shouldn’t count the Phillies out on Jordan Montgomery.

» READ MORE: Murphy: On the wisdom of the Whit Merrifield signing, and a familiar philosophical struggle for the Phillies

As for Wheeler …

Just pay the guy. It sounds like that is the plan, and it should be the plan. I’m as risk-averse as they come when it comes to paying pitchers in their mid-30′s. But Wheeler is as good of a bet as any other future big league free agent the Phillies might spend their money on.

HIs career workload has been surprisingly light considering his reputation as a workhorse power pitcher. Between the majors and the minors, he’s thrown a total of 1,776 competitive innings since high school. Look at how that compares to the workloads of pitchers who you might regard as cautionary tales:

Professional innings (majors and minors) before the age of 34

That list of pitchers is one that I often use to illustrate the dangers of committing big money and multiple years to someone who is Wheeler’s age. But Wheeler’s arm has endured the equivalent of multiple fewer seasons of stress than the vast majority of them. In fact, his career workload at 34 is similar to several players who pitched well into their mid-to-late 30′s: Hiroki Kuroda, Charlie Morton, Rich Hill, and Adam Wainwright, to name a few.

Obviously, that’s not definitive proof of any sort of correlation between longevity and pre-age-34 workload. You can find plenty of examples of players who hit a wall in their mid-30′s without an extraordinary level of mileage on their arms. You can also find plenty of examples of pitchers who are great at a late age despite throwing multiple thousands of innings in their 20′s and early 30′s.

» READ MORE: Whit Merrifield has done a lot in his career — except win. He chose the Phillies to try to change that.

During his standout 2021 campaign, Wheeler’s fastball averaged 97.2 mph, per Statcast. Last year, it was 95.6. Meanwhile, his slider and curveball have been far less effective over the last couple of seasons, according to FanGraphs’ pitch value metrics. That may explain the considerable increase in his fly ball percentage since 2021. His hard contact percentage has also increased, from 22.4% in 2021 to 31.3% in 2023. So, yeah, there are some things that future hindsight may reveal to have been warning signs.

Point is, there aren’t any glaring reasons for concern. Keep in mind, Wheeler threw 192 regular season innings in 2023 and then was dominant in 27 2/3 postseason innings: 35 strikeouts, three walks, six earned runs. That’ll do.

Whatever happens with Wheeler, frugality is not a claim you can level at the Phillies. But the Yamamoto pursuit suggests they still have untapped reserves. As much cash as they’ve spent in recent offseasons, they still aren’t quite yet at the level of bleep-you money that we’ve seen from the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees.

Maybe the Yamamoto pursuit is the start.