Phillies turning to Zack Wheeler in must-win Game 6, but nobody knows what to expect from the ace

HOUSTON — The human body is built to throw a baseball at peak force and with precision command, over and over, for only so long. So, if it’s the first week of November and the World Series is undecided, just assume that there’s some intrigue surrounding the health and effectiveness of at least one high-profile starting pitcher.

In Zack Wheeler’s case, the mystery meter isn’t quite cranked up to 2004 Curt Schilling/bloody sock levels or even Max Scherzer’s spasming neck muscles in 2019. But with the Phillies on the brink of extinction as the 118th World Series returns to Texas for Game 6 on Saturday night, nobody knows what to expect from their ace.

Not even Wheeler.

The Phillies need to sweep the weekend in Houston to win their third World Series title. Join Inquirer Phillies writers Scott Lauber and Matt Breen as they discuss what the Phillies need to do in Game 6 on Saturday night to help make it happen. Watch it at Inquirer.com/PhilliesGameday.

“I think the extra rest always helps,” he said Friday before the Phillies flew to Houston. “The bullpen [session] felt good. I think we’re on track.”

For one more start? Sure. But what will it look like? How long will it last?

To recap: Wheeler missed 31 days late in the season because of right forearm tendinitis and elbow inflammation. He returned to make three starts in September, stretching out to 77 pitches but also slinging his fastball at 99 mph, before dominating the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and San Diego Padres (twice) in four postseason starts.

» READ MORE: Astros shut down Phillies’ bats again, head back to Houston one win from a World Series title

Without Wheeler, the Phillies almost certainly aren’t in the World Series.

But he gave up five runs on six hits and three walks in five innings last Saturday night in Houston in Game 2, a 5-2 Astros win. His command was off, his maximum velocity down by 2-3 mph.

Wheeler and manager Rob Thomson denied that the right-hander felt aftereffects from taking a line drive to his left knee in his previous start, although they did intimate that he was compromised, with Thomson describing the issue as “fatigue.”

“When he went on the [injured list], we brought him back, and not that we rushed him, but we ramped him up pretty quick,” Thomson said. “And I think that took its toll on him a little bit, and I think that’s why you’re seeing now the velocity go down a little bit.”

Said Wheeler: “It’s just late in the season. It’s a bad time for it to happen, but yeah, I mean, it is what it is.”

All along, the Phillies planned to start Wheeler in Game 6 on five days’ rest. A rainout this week gave him an additional day off. He didn’t throw from a bullpen mound until Thursday at Citizens Bank Park, a session that Thomson characterized as “really good.”

Maybe the break will help. In five starts this season with six or more days’ rest, Wheeler gave up five runs on 15 hits and two walks in 27 innings for a 1.67 ERA.

”He looked fine [in the bullpen],” Thomson said. “He turned it up. Everything was good. He’s ready to go.”

Wheeler has thrown 183⅓ innings, including the postseason, after leading all pitchers with 213⅓ innings last year. He possesses one of the most electric fastballs in the majors, but took it to a different level in the playoffs. Through four postseason starts, he threw 112 pitches at 97 mph or more compared to a total of 206 in 26 regular-season starts.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ art of ‘flushing it’ will be put to the test with a must-win Game 6 vs. the Astros

And on the eve of the World Series, pitching coach Caleb Cotham conceded that the Phillies’ plan with Wheeler was to optimize his velocity for as long as he could.

”He’s probably feeling a little bit of the downtime and the on-ramp,” Cotham said, referring to Wheeler’s return from the injury. “He’s just giving everything he’s got. I think that plan is right. It’s like, just go until you can’t go.”

But in Game 2, Wheeler’s heater never climbed higher than 96.4 mph.

Wheeler and catcher J.T. Realmuto agree that command was a bigger issue than velocity. And although the dip in velocity was dramatic, so was a deviation in Wheeler’s pitch usage. He threw his four-seam fastball only 22% of the time, down from an average of 41.9% in the regular season.

If ever there was a time to empty the tank, it would be an elimination game.

”You don’t want to go out there and overthrow, you know what I mean?” Wheeler said. “You go out there and give it the best that you can, but at the same time, you don’t try to go out there and overthrow and just try to do too much.”

Said Realmuto: “He’s got the stuff to get the job done. Whether his velo is at 98 or not, as long as he’s got his command and then he’s able to attack the strike zone and work ahead of hitters, I’m not too worried about the velo.”

Besides, the Phillies have other concerns, notably kicking the offense back into gear. They got no-hit by Cristian Javier and three Astros relievers in Game 4 and were held to two runs on six hits by Justin Verlander and the bullpen in Game 5.

» READ MORE: Win or you’re done? Former Cub Kyle Schwarber knows about that: ‘It’s going to take everyone’

It won’t get easier in Game 6 against left-hander Framber Valdez, the curveball artist who gave up one run on four hits and struck out nine in 6⅓ innings of Game 2, outpitching Wheeler in the process.

But the biggest subplot will involve Wheeler, from his first warmup toss in the outfield to his egress from the mound, whenever it occurs. In case it’s sooner than later, Thomson said Ranger Suárez will be available out of the bullpen, although the Phillies would much prefer him to start Game 7 on regular rest.

“I take a lot of pride in that and just try to be a stopper and give our team one more chance after tomorrow,” Wheeler said. “Tomorrow’s a must-win and I’ll take pride in that. Hopefully I can go out there and give us the best chance.”

Whatever that may be.