Handicapping Zack Wheeler’s Cy Young chances with one month to go

Two votes.

That was all Zack Wheeler needed. Two more first-place votes — or one first and another second — and he would have won the Cy Young Award in 2021. Instead, then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes was crowned the best pitcher in the National League, despite throwing 46⅓ fewer innings than his Phillies counterpart.

OK, so it wasn’t exactly Forrest Gump winning the Oscar for Best Picture over Pulp Fiction (and The Shawshank Redemption, too) in 1995. Still, the disappointment stuck with Wheeler, who stacked two solid seasons — and one sixth-place Cy Young finish — on top of his near-miss.

» READ MORE: Keeping their starting pitchers healthy is key to a World Series run. Here’s how the Phillies plan to do it.

But Wheeler is back here again — and maybe better than ever. In spring training, he was open about setting a goal of winning the Cy Young. And entering play Sunday, this is how he ranked among NL pitchers in the most important statistical categories:

It all looks, well, Cy Young-ish.

“I hope so,” Wheeler told reporters Saturday night after holding the Braves to four hits in seven scoreless innings to pick up his 100th career victory. “You come into the season, and that’s one of your personal goals, to win that. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with personal goals. Because if you set them and you do well and you accomplish them, or you come close to it, you’re helping the team a lot.

“That’s all I try to do every year is try to be the best that I possibly can, and I know that’ll help the team.”

» READ MORE: Re-ranking our top 10 Phillies prospects as their seasons end, and what’s next for each in 2025

If the Phillies keep the rotation on turn through September, Wheeler will get five more starts to hammer home his case to be their first Cy Young winner since Roy Halladay in 2010. He’s lined up to face the Marlins (Friday in Miami), Rays (Sept. 11 at home), Brewers (Sept. 17 in Milwaukee), Mets (Sept. 22 in New York), and Nationals (Sept. 28 in Washington).

In the meantime, here’s how he stacks up against the other top candidates for the award that will be selected at the end of the regular season by members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

If there was an award for the best pitcher to never win a Cy Young, Sale would be in the conversation.

From 2012 to 2018, 165 pitchers threw at least 500 innings. Sale ranked second in strikeouts (1,678), third in ERA (2.91) and WHIP (1.024), sixth in innings (1,388), and was 43% better than league average, according to adjusted ERA. Yet he finished only sixth, fifth, third, fourth, fifth, second, and fourth in Cy Young voting.

But this might finally be his year. At age 35. After five injury-plagued seasons.

» READ MORE: The Phillies expected more from Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. Here’s how they’re dealing with ‘a game of failure.’

Sale enters September in contention for the pitching triple crown. He leads the league in ERA (2.58) and wins (15) and was tied for first in strikeouts (197) with Padres ace Dylan Cease, who started Sunday. He’s also the leader in FanGraphs’ WAR (4.4). And although he has pitched fewer innings (153⅔) than Wheeler, he’s much closer than Burnes was three years ago.

Unlike the MVP, the Cy Young is awarded to the best pitcher in each league, not the most valuable. But imagine where the injury-ravaged Braves would be without Sale.

It could be argued that no NL pitcher has been harder to hit than Greene, who leads the league in opponents’ batting average (.196) and hits allowed per nine innings (5.8).

No wonder the 25-year-old righty is tops in Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR (5.4).

Greene’s breakthrough season includes 17 starts of two earned runs or less. The Reds have tried to give him extra rest whenever possible, building in a seven-day respite in June and a 10-day breather around the All-Star break. It has successfully kept him healthy but left him trailing Wheeler and Sale in innings.

» READ MORE: No one is on a 100-win pace. What’s happened to the super teams, and whose struggles will pay off?

Midway through spring training, the Padres gave up three of their top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America’s rankings at the time, to pry Cease from the White Sox and replace free agent Blake Snell atop their rotation.

It’s hard to argue it wasn’t worth it.

Cease, 28, has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 21 starts, including a July 25 no-hitter in Washington. In his last 10 starts entering Sunday, he had a 2.37 ERA to help put San Diego in position to snag a wild-card spot.

Never mind that a rookie hasn’t won the Cy Young since Fernando Valenzuela in 1981. Or that Skenes didn’t make his major league debut until May 11, when Wheeler had already made eight starts and Sale seven.

Skenes’ long odds of winning the Cy Young will get even longer when the out-of-contention Pirates do the responsible thing and cut back his innings — or shut him down entirely — in September.

» READ MORE: How far can the Phillies ride their NLCS Game 7 heartbreak? Players who have been there know.

But the 22-year-old fireballer will deservedly receive down-ballot consideration, along with NL innings leader Logan Webb of the Giants. Skenes has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 15 of 18 starts for an overall 2.23 ERA. His 32.3% strikeout rate ranks third in the majors, trailing the White Sox’ Garrett Crochet and Sale.

Somehow, it’s possible Skenes might get shut out of winning the Rookie of the Year, too, with Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill making a compelling case.