Ranger Suárez closer to returning after throwing the Phillies’ most important pitches of the week

At the peak of the Phillies’ powers, after tacking on another victory to a 114-win pace nine weeks ago in London, their starting pitchers had a cumulative 2.65 ERA, three-quarters of a run lower than any National League team.

Was it sustainable? Of course not.

But even allowing for inevitable regression in a 162-game season, the Phillies looked like the class of baseball because of the quality of their top four starters. Zack Wheeler is among the best pitchers in the sport, but how many teams would take Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez to start Game 1 or 2 of a playoff series?

» READ MORE: Keeping their starting pitchers healthy is key to a World Series run. Here’s how the Phillies plan to do it.

There isn’t one reason for the Phillies’ 25-30 record since June 8 — or their post-All-Star break mark of 7-15, better than only the historically terrible White Sox entering play Tuesday night. But, uh, have you seen the starters’ 4.54 ERA over the last 54 games?

So, when Suárez took the mound Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park — with manager Rob Thomson watching from behind home plate and assistant general manager Jorge Velandia in the stands — and simulated two innings against hitters in a live batting practice session, he threw the 36 most important pitches of any Phillies starter this week.

It went well, by Suárez’s account. Three weeks after going on the injured list with a sore lower back, he will make a start at triple-A or simulate another game Sunday with an eye toward rejoining the rotation during an Aug. 23-25 series in Kansas City.

“Potentially,” Thomson couched.

Speaking of which, Suárez’s potential impact can’t be overstated. For three months, he outpitched everyone in baseball. He was the first Phillies starter since Steve Carlton in 1980 to post a 1.80 ERA or better in his first 15 starts of a season. He brought a 1.75 mark to Detroit for a June 25 matchup with Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, and it felt like showdown between presumptive All-Star Game starters.

In a difference-making Phillies rotation, Suárez’s rise was the biggest separator.

But he struggled in back-to-back starts, then complained of lower back soreness after a July 12 start at home against the Athletics. He skipped the All-Star Game, took a 10-day breather, and looked fine for 5⅓ innings on July 22 in Minnesota.

Crisis averted? Not quite. A few days later, Suárez awoke with tightness in another area of his back and went on the injured list on July 27.

» READ MORE: How far can the Phillies ride their NLCS Game 7 heartbreak? Players who have been there know.

The Phillies didn’t expect Suárez to miss more than a couple of weeks. At the last three trade deadlines, they acquired starting pitching, with Kyle Gibson, Noah Syndergaard, and Michael Lorenzen. But president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski cited Suárez’s presumably brief absence as a reason for not pursuing a starter this time around.

Although Suárez has progressed slower than expected, there’s a sense the Phillies are being extra cautious. If the race for the division title was tighter, he might be back in the rotation by now. Some team officials even believe the extended break will enable him to be fresher down the stretch. He pitched 125 innings last season; even with his absence, he’s already at 119⅓.

“He’s pitched through some things, like they all do, and it just got to the point where we want to get this right,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said recently. “Especially if it trends a little worse or it starts moving around different spots. You could call it a blessing in disguise, maybe just a blessing, that we can have a chance to just take a breath. I think it’s going to be a good thing for him long-term.”

Wishful thinking? The Phillies had better hope not.

Wheeler has been mostly fine, except for blowups against the Orioles and Yankees and a fleeting scare with a sore back. Nola remains OK despite not getting into the seventh inning since June 29.

Sánchez has lacked the typical sink on his two-seamer, likely a sign of fatigue. And it would make sense for him to be tired. He has pitched 131⅓ innings, 32% more than ever before in the majors, and nearing his total of 149 innings last year, including 49⅔ in triple A.

The lefty’s ERA in his last seven starts: 6.63.

» READ MORE: Building the Perfect Phillies Pitcher: The signature pitch from each starter, and what makes it special

But the Phillies can figure out creative ways to give Sánchez more rest. Taijuan Walker returned Tuesday night after a prolonged absence with a blister on his right index finger. If he really has regained a feel for his signature splitter, he can bolster the back of the rotation and enable the Phillies to use a six-man rotation during an upcoming stretch of 22 games in 23 days.

There’s no replacing the 98⅓ ace-level innings that Suárez provided through late June. Or his 1.62 ERA over the last two postseasons. They weren’t going to find that anywhere on the trade market, especially with Skubal and White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet staying put.

Suárez gave the Phillies the best top-of-the-rotation trio in the majors, elevating them from playoff contender to consensus World Series favorite. In his absence, the once-sizable gap between them and everyone else vanished.

Entering Tuesday, the Phillies (69-49) were a half-game behind the Dodgers (70-49) for the best record in the NL, with the Brewers (67-51) on their heels. So there will be a playoff race after all. If the Phillies finish among the top two teams in the league, they will get a first-round bye. As the third-best division winner, they would play a best-of-three wild-card round series.

The Dodgers got Mookie Betts back Monday and expect to have Walker Buehler in the rotation later this week.

Keep an eye, then, on Suárez, without whom the Phillies’ chances for another deep October run wouldn’t be much better than a toss-up.