The Phillies have to make a decision on Noah Song this week. Here’s an inside look at the process.

The countdown is on to decide the young pitcher's fate with the Phillies, but no clear course of action has emerged yet. However, these are the main factors guiding the GPS of the final verdict.

Phillies pitcher Noah Song during a spring training game in February.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by Alex Coffey

Published July 23, 2023, 3:42 p.m. ET

CLEVELAND — The Phillies will have to make a decision on Rule 5 right-hander Noah Song by Friday, which makes his last two outings “important,” according to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Song pitched two innings with triple-A Lehigh Valley on Saturday night. He has one more outing — on Wednesday — before his 30-day rehab assignment ends and the Phillies decide whether to add him to the active roster or expose him to waivers and offer him back to the Boston Red Sox if he is not claimed.

“We’re just waiting to see how he continues to do,” Dombrowski said. “So, these outings are important.”

Saturday marked Song’s first time pitching two innings in a game this year. He threw 25 pitches in his first inning, allowing a triple, a walk and an RBI single with two strikeouts. He needed just eight pitches to get through his second inning, allowing no hits, runs or walks, with one strikeout.

Song’s velocity tailed as his outing went on. His fastball was in the 92-94 mph range in his first inning and dropped to 89-91 mph in his second inning.

“He’s still building, I guess,” said manager Rob Thomson. “I don’t think it’s that much of a concern [that his velocity is tailing off]. We’ll see what it does his next time out. Because this is the first time he’s gone two full innings. We’ll see what happens the next time out.”

It’s a small sample size to make a big decision on, and, of course, there is no precedent to help with the decision. There’s no benchmark for what a pitcher’s velocity should look like after taking off four years to serve in the Navy. But those who have been around the 26-year-old Song since spring training have seen improvements — and believe he is actually ahead of schedule.

He was throwing roughly 88-90 mph in spring training and has consistently added velocity. It has wavered slightly from start to start but by and large, it has been markedly better than where he was in March. Song has been in the 90-94 mph range in most of his rehab outings. On July 4, in Clearwater, he was at 94-96 mph.

He’s added as much strength as he can over that time period. His command is still an issue. Song can throw balls over the plate, but has trouble hitting specific locations. But what has helped him — and should continue to help him — is his four-pitch arsenal. Song throws a curveball, a slider, a changeup, and a four-seam fastball. They’re all distinct pitches.

They’re not big league pitches yet, but if the Phillies decide to add him to the active roster, he could use that starter’s arsenal to keep hitters off balance, for an inning or two, as he continues to build his velocity.

Despite that, it is fair to say that Song is not big league ready. Adding him to the roster would be a risk. It’d be easier to manage in September, when rosters expand, but finding a place for him for the month of August would be ambitious — especially for a team in playoff contention.

The bigger question surrounding Song is what he will look like next year. Because he is a Rule 5 pick, he must stay on the big league roster for 90 consecutive days. He won’t hit that mark this season, but could hit it in 2024. A team that is not in playoff contention — like the A’s or the Royals — could let him build strength in the offseason, and see what his velocity is like the next year, and option him once he hits 90 days.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, they have a lot more at stake. Every roster spot is important for a team that wants to make the playoffs. And despite Song’s progress since spring training, it’s hard to say exactly where he’ll go from here, and whether that will justify the risk.

If Song shows signs of the pitcher he was when he was pitching at single-A Lowell with the Red Sox, before he began his service with the Navy, that risk might be worth it. He allowed just two runs in 17 innings in short-season A ball in 2019, topping off at 99 mph. Evaluators considered him a mid-rotation starter at the time he was drafted. He dropped to the fourth round of the draft because of concerns about whether the Navy would allow Song, a graduate of the Naval Academy, to pursue a baseball career before completing his military service obligation.