Sports betting: Bookies react to Bryce Harper’s injury
Harper's odds of winning another MVP went out the window when he broke his thumb. The Phillies' odds of making the playoffs have not taken a major hit so far.
The American League has had the designated hitter rule for nearly 50 years and technically the only DH ever to win the MVP was Shohei Ohtani last year. And that’s largely because he went 9-2 as a starting pitcher with 156 strikeouts in 130⅓ innings. The guy’s a unicorn.
Bryce Harper is terrific, but he can’t strike out 150 guys on the mound. Especially not now.
This is the first year the National League has had the DH, and when Harper suffered a broken thumb on Saturday, that erased his slim chances of capturing the award.
“Harper went from +850 to +5000 to win NL MVP,” said John Ewing, data analyst for BetMGM.
The Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt (+130) has emerged as the favorite ahead of the Mets’ Pete Alonso (+500) and the Padres’ Manny Machado (+550).
» READ MORE: The Braves won it all without Ronald Acuña Jr. Can the Phillies even make the playoffs after losing Bryce Harper?
The timeline of Harper’s recovery is not clear, so the Phillies futures odds had not skyrocketed as of Monday afternoon.
“We made no real adjustments as we are at 30-1 on the Phillies to win the World Series,” WynnBET senior trader Chris Youn said. “Our big bets for Philadelphia are on 40-1, so we probably won’t go any higher than that.”
PointsBet was in the same ballpark with the Phillies at 35-1 before the injury and 40-1 on Monday.
“The Phillies were a team that was a coin flip to make the playoffs,” said Jay Croucher, PointsBet’s lead trader. “I think they were one of the teams that really [could have] benefited from the extra wild-card [spot], because they were one of the teams that was really going to be on the edge. … But now with Harper down for what seems to be a pretty prolonged period, we think that their playoff odds are more like one in three.”
Fore who, Fore what
Daniel Berger, who had been favored to win this week’s John Deere Classic, has pulled out. A field that already was light on names was diminished further. The new favorites, Webb Simpson (12-1) and Adam Hadwin (16-1), are ranked 58th and 80th in the world, respectively.
A weak field is no surprise given that the U.S. Open ended June 19 and the British Open begins July 14. The top players focus on the majors because that’s where legacies are built.
But another kick in the bunker for the PGA Tour is that this also is the week that the controversial LIV Tour makes its North American debut. It has eight of the world’s top 40 competing in a 48-man field in Portland, Ore., starting Thursday, including two in the top 20 — Dustin Johnson (17th) and Brooks Koepka (19th).
However, there are two important places this week where the PGA has the edge on its rebellious colleagues.
The John Deere will be broadcast on mainstream TV networks (Golf Channel and CBS) with deep ties to the PGA Tour. The LIV might have Phil Mickelson, but it does not have an American TV partner.
Secondly, many jurisdictions, including Pennsylvania and New Jersey, are not offering wagering on the LIV event. At least not yet.
“It’s kind of a feeling-out process,” Croucher explained. “Just in terms of getting integrity agreements and that type of thing. But the thing is no one bets on it relative to the PGA Tour. Even with the big names, there’s not nearly as much betting interest. [And] I saw the viewership tournament for the first tournament and they were horrific.”
Charl Schwartzel won the LIV’s inaugural event on June 11 near London.
“It’s an amazing story on a lot of fronts,” Croucher added, “but it’s a wait-and-see with the regulators.”
This & that
FanDuel opened the Flyers at 60-1 to win the Stanley Cup next year. There are 11 teams with longer odds than the Flyers, which is probably nine teams too many. Montreal (150-1) and Arizona (250-1) are the longest shots with Colorado (5-1) and Toronto (9-1) at the top of the odds board. BetMGM posted the Flyers at 66-1.
* BetMGM took a $500 parlay on the Rams (10-1), Warriors (6-1), and Avalanche (6-1) to win their respective championships. It paid out $269,000.
”I’ve always respected Drew Brees and his great NFL career,” former WIP talk-radio host Brian Startare recently tweeted. “But I must say I’m getting sick and tired of him Living his Bet Life.”
Memory lane
Monday was the 34th anniversary of Mike Tyson’s knockout of Michael Spinks at Convention Hall in Atlantic City. It was Tyson at his most ferocious. His odds were 4-1 to win the fight, which at the time was the largest grossing matchup in boxing history. The fight card was held on a Monday so that AC’s casinos could clean up over a four-day weekend.
The bout lasted just 91 seconds. Spinks never had a chance, as Phillies third baseman Mike Schmidt anticipated.
“You could have two Michael Spinks and they couldn’t beat Mike Tyson,” Schmidt predicted. “And one could have a gun.”
And finally
With the sports-betting menu light at this point in the calendar, Dave Connelly of Unabated.com recently pointed out the merits of betting on women’s basketball. Like most markets beyond the big four sports, advantages can be had for bettors who put in the work. But don’t expect the sportsbooks to allow heavy wagers.
As Connelly pointed out, “often these books don’t have the ability to figure out if you’re sharp at WNBA or not. They just know they’re not.”