The Phillies probably shouldn’t release Taijuan Walker. But it is a very soft ‘probably.’
Walker doesn’t have an obvious role for the Phillies for the rest of this season, or the playoffs, or next season. Which begs a question.
It’s a silly thought, right?
Knee-jerk, impulsive, laden with potential regrets.
You can’t release a 32-year-old starting pitcher who has two years and $36 million remaining on his contract. You certainly can’t do it with 31 days left in the regular season.
Can you?
Can you spend the final month of the regular season playing with a 25-man roster instead of 26? Can you keep a guy around who is fourth on the depth chart behind three other guys who aren’t even around? If any one of Kolby Allard, Tyler Phillips, or Spencer Turnbull is more likely to start a meaningful game this season, if you are adding Andrew Painter to that mix next season, then what is the point of keeping Taijuan Walker on the roster?
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It is a conundrum, and it is fascinating.
I won’t blame Rob Thomson or Dave Dombrowski if they won’t contemplate it. If I were in their shoes, I’d probably operate as if Walker’s long-term future was a bridge better crossed when it comes.
Thomson announced on Thursday that Walker would be moving to the bullpen, where he’ll presumably serve as the most expensive mop-up man in the majors. The strategy seems to be: Make it through the rest of the season, leave him off the postseason roster, and then deal with the future once the offseason arrives.
But, man, the more you look at it, the closer the bridge appears.
The results have been worse than the top-line numbers indicate. And the top-line numbers are bad: a 6.50 ERA, no quality starts since mid-May, a .959 opponents’ OPS.
The real concern is the combination of walks and home runs. Those are the things that tend to happen when things go irretrievably bad. Over his last 11 starts, Walker has allowed 14 home runs and 25 walks with a mere 38 strikeouts in 52 innings. Those are some horrendous ratios.
On the season, Walker is allowing an average of 2.3 home runs per nine innings. To put that in perspective, only 48 pitchers in big-league history have finished a season with an average of 2.3 home runs per nine innings in at least 70 innings.
The argument for releasing Walker now goes something like this:
If he is no longer going to pitch in the regular-season rotation, and if he was never going to pitch in the postseason, and if he isn’t going to pitch in next year’s rotation … then when is he going to pitch?
It would be great if every big-league team were allowed to endow a Roster Spot Emeritus. But those aren’t the rules.
The Phillies don’t need to keep Walker around for depth purposes. They are 4-0 in their last four games started by somebody other than Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, or Walker. Before that, they were 3-5 in such starts dating to Turnbull’s injury. Between Allard and Phillips and the impending return of Turnbull, the Phillies have more than enough replacement-level arms.
Even if injuries strike, the Phillies really “need” a fifth starter only three more times, thanks to a trio of off days in September. Thomson usually prefers to get his horses an extra day of rest rather than skipping them, so I wouldn’t expect him to make use of that option. But it is there. Besides, in an ideal world, the Phillies will clinch the division with a week or so left in the season, which further reduces the risk that they will end up “needing” Walker even in his current state.
Walker didn’t throw a pitch last postseason when he was on the roster. This year, he probably shouldn’t even be on the roster.
Walker doesn’t have an obvious role on next year’s roster. If all goes according to plan, top prospect Painter will be in the big-league rotation next year, which would leave Walker as the odd man out.
The Phillies will need to add Painter to the 40-man roster. They may also need spots for fellow prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry, both of whom will be Rule 5 eligible this winter.
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On the one hand, conventional wisdom says the Phillies probably shouldn’t release Walker. On the other hand, what is the upside of keeping him?
Two areas of consideration as a counterargument.
Walker can still bring enough value to warrant a roster spot if there is a reasonable chance he can use the offseason to get back to being the pitcher he was during the 2023 regular season. Painter is still more of a theory than a reality. Nola and Wheeler are both in the latter stages of their careers. Injuries happen. The Phillies’ playoff chances probably aren’t going to be made or broken by whoever would replace Walker on the roster.
Even if Walker is unlikely to be on the Phillies’ roster next season, they’ll have a chance to trade him this offseason and at least recoup a few million bucks in salary relief from a team that is willing to gamble on a potential rebound. That may not sound like a lot, but it’s a few million more bucks that they can reinvest in the team in some form.
The pertinent question: What are the odds that Walker actually contributes something positive over the final two years of his contract?
A lot depends on what we’d qualify as “positive” results. It also somewhat depends on our time horizon. From a broad viewpoint of career trajectory, a Walker-like season at a Walker-like age usually signals that the end is nigh. Doesn’t matter if you are Roy Halladay or Chris Young: The human body has only so many bullets in it.
The end isn’t necessarily immediate, though. Let’s look at that list of 48 pitchers who allowed at least 2.3 HR/9 in a season. We’ll narrow the sample size to the 12 pitchers who were 30-plus years old.
Five were more or less retired by the end of the next season (Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young, Andy Benes, Brian Tallet, Tomo Okha). But four of them were at least a couple of years older than Walker is now. The fifth, Tallet, didn’t have nearly Walker’s track record up to his blow-up season. Really, it was less of a blow-up season than a natural progression of things.
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As for the remaining six, well, it’s kind of interesting. None of them returned to their peak form. But all of them followed up their Walker-like seasons with contributions that at least warranted a roster spot. Let’s look at the four most recent examples.
Junior Guerra, 32, 2017: Bounced back with a capable 2018 (4.09 ERA, 141 innings), followed it up with a decent season out of the bullpen before fading into oblivion.
Drew Smyly, 30, 2019: His resurgence actually began on the Phillies’ watch, with 12 decent starts after the Rangers released him. He has been a serviceable pitcher since: a 4.16 ERA in 454⅓ innings 2020-24, including a 2.91 ERA this season with the Cubs.
Edwin Jackson, 33, 2017: Posted a 3.33 ERA in 92 innings over 17 starts for the A’s after a brutal 2017 (20 homers, 29 walks, 76 innings). But that was more or less the end.
Josh Tomlin, 33, 2018: Followed up his disastrous year (25 HRs, 6.14 ERA, 70⅓ innings) with a decent 2019 in the Braves bullpen (3.74 ERA, 79⅓ innings).
Another relevant case: Luis Severino, who spent his 29-year-old season serving up Best in Bronx meatballs for the Yankees (23 HRs in 70⅓ IP). This year, he has been a solid member of the Mets rotation with a 3.96 ERA and only 19 home runs in 152⅓ innings.
Look, none of these examples is particularly inspiring. But the bar for pitching value is low. Depth is an issue every season. Walker isn’t really providing it now. But if there is a chance, he can at least give them that in 2025, it could warrant whatever they’d be sacrificing with his roster spot.