With a hefty contract for Trea Turner, the Phillies are all in on the next five seasons

The biggest question was when. You can’t often say that about $300 million contracts. But Trea Turner’s was one of them. That’s how much sense he made for the Phillies. And if the Phillies were willing to pay him $27.5 million a year through his 40th birthday, well, they certainly made sense for him.

There’s a lot to digest here. You can’t overstate the immediate impact of adding a bat the caliber of Turner’s at a position as premium as shortstop. You also can’t overstate the risk the Phillies will carry on their books in the second half of this decade. Simply put, they are paying a lot of money for a long time with the reasonable hope that Turner will be a legitimate difference-maker for about half that time. In doing so, they’ve sent a loud signal that John Middleton is willing to spend whatever it takes to keep the Phillies near the top of the National League.

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Let’s be clear. Turner is what it was going to take. With Bryce Harper expected to miss the first half of the season while recovering from elbow surgery and with zero no-doubt-about-it difference makers available to add to the rotation, the Phillies’ best chance at repeating their 2022 World Series run was to add a bat capable of giving them MVP-level production.

In 2020 and 2021, Turner finished in the top seven in National League MVP voting, and averaged 31 home runs per 162 games with a .931 OPS. That might be a far cry from what Harper did in those two years — 39 home runs per 162 games with a 1.021 OPS — but it was a lot closer than most hitters have come.

Their average numbers over the last four seasons are at least in the same ballpark:

The crucial distinction is that Turner will bring that production to shortstop, where the Phillies got just 12 home runs and a .651 OPS in 2022. When you combine that upgrade with the more abundant options to replace Harper at designated hitter, the Phillies have given themselves a chance to make it through the first four months of the season without a significant drop-off from what they had a year ago.

Once Harper returns, the Phillies will field a lineup that could look something like this:

In order to establish themselves as a truly elite offensive unit, they’ll need some significant improvements from the bottom half of the order. Castellanos’ getting back to his old form would go a long way toward that. Regardless, Turner adds a significant speed and contact dimension that the Phillies were sorely lacking a year ago. Over the last five seasons, Turner averaged 37 steals per 162 games with a .301 batting average. That’s a significant dimension to add to the top to the lineup.

Of course, there is risk, particularly in the back half of the deal. Not since Robinson Cano in 2013 has a position player as old as Turner (29) signed a free-agent contract of longer than seven years.

The biggest cautionary tale is a former teammate of Turner’s with the Nationals.

Three years ago, Anthony Rendon was heading into his 30-year-old season when he signed a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Angels. In the three years before free agency, Rendon averaged 28 home runs per season with a .953 OPS and 144 OPS+. In the first three years of his new deal, the third baseman hit a total of 20 home runs, with a .779 OPS and 115 OPS+ while suiting up for 157 games.

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Almost all of his production came in the first year of that deal, the COVID-shortened 2020 season. In 2021-22, he totaled just 442 plate appearances and 11 home runs while posting a meager .709 OPS and 97 OPS+. His 2022 season ended in June when he underwent wrist surgery.

The most sensible way to evaluate this deal might be as an eight-year, $300 million contract with three seasons tacked on simply to defray the annual hit to the books. The Phillies are paying Turner for the next five seasons because that’s what makes sense and they are paying him for six more seasons in order to get the deal done.

That’s how unlikely Turner is to be even a league-average regular let alone worth $27.5 million at the ages of 38, 39, and 40. No player in the last 60 years has posted a league-average-or-better OPS+ while playing middle infield or center field at the age of 39-plus. The only two players to do it at the age of 38 were Derek Jeter (2012) and Jim Edmonds (2008).

Think back to Jimmy Rollins’ final season with the Phillies. The former MVP shortstop was 35 years old when he hit 17 home runs with a .717 OPS and 100 OPS+ in 2014. You might remember that as an entirely unremarkable season for Rollins, which it was. But it was also one of only 19 seasons in MLB’s expansion era in which a shortstop, second baseman, or center fielder posted an OPS+ of at least 100 at the age of 35 or older. Again, that’s a time frame of more than 60 seasons, during which there were 19 such individual performances. The Phillies will be hoping to get six out of Turner.

Clearly, though, their focus is on those first five years. Middleton views last year’s World Series run as the first step. The guy wants to win. You can’t argue with that.

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