Big picture health should be priority for Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and surging Phillies

Good news: Zack Wheeler is going to miss a start.

Seriously, it’s good news. Protect the man at all costs. Let Michael Mercado start on Sunday. Let Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes start the All-Star Game. The best thing Wheeler can do between now and the start of the second half of the season is nothing. Rest, relax, recuperate. Maybe do some fishing. As long as he casts with his left hand.

“We’re going to be cautious with him,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said on Thursday afternoon.

That’s exactly what they should be doing with him. With everyone, really. But especially with their pitchers.

» READ MORE: A Johan Rojas robbery, a Dodgers sweep, and the Phillies roll on as the summer’s biggest act

Things look a lot different right now than they did on June 22, when Wheeler’s back started barking during a start vs. Arizona. The Phillies had spent the previous month treading water. They were 11-11 since that electric 30-7 surge that had vaulted them into first place. They’d lost six of nine and the schedule was stiffening. The Braves were finding themselves. The Dodgers were churning out wins. Were they really as good as they’d looked in mid-May?

They were. They are. They took two of three from the Diamondbacks. They were 12-6 in their last 18 games. They aced their Dodgers litmus test, guaranteeing that they’d enter the All-Star Break with the best record in the National League. They can go 30-40 the rest of the way and still win 90 games. Play .500 baseball and they’ll finish with 95. The math is easy at 61-32. It is a beautiful record, round and pure.

Let me pause for a moment to say what I’m not saying. I’m not saying that the Phillies should bag up the regular season and start planning the parade. I’m not saying that their current lead is insurmountable. The Dodgers are more than capable of +6 wins the rest of the way. The only time anyone should be comfortable with an 9½-game lead over the Braves is when there are eight games left to play. Every win in the present is one less game the Phillies will need to win once clinching time arrives.

The big picture can’t be the focus. But it can be a consideration. It should be a consideration. The Phillies have earned the right. The top playoff seed is a big competitive advantage. Health is a bigger one.

The Phillies have earned the right to err on the side of caution. Thomson’s biggest challenge as a manager might be getting his players to accept that. On the organizational side, the Phillies have always had their priorities in order. The focus belongs on the long-term when it comes to players’ health. It makes business sense. It makes competitive sense. Thomson’s strength as a manager is the human side. Makes sense there, too.

“It’s about taking care of the guys and making sure we get to the end of the season and hopefully beyond,” Thomson said. “I don’t think the schedule or where we are in the standings affects the way I feel about the players.”

» READ MORE: What will it take to get Ranger Suárez to sign a contract extension?

The tricky thing about load management and injury prevention: only a player knows exactly what he is feeling. Baseball’s ethos is well-established. Rub some dirt on it. Grit your teeth. If you can play, you play. Few clubhouses in baseball embody this mentality like the Phillies. Theirs is a roster full of grinders.

Bryce Harper was back in the lineup on Thursday, two days after bruising his hand in the field. He and Kyle Schwarber both recently returned from short stays on the injured list. J.T. Realmuto is chomping at the bit to make his long-awaited return from knee surgery. He’ll head to Clearwater over the All-Star Break and continue working out, per Thomson. The Phillies have yet to publicly declare their expectations for his return to play. That’s the smart way to play it.

Wheeler? The expectation is that he will be back in the rotation when the second half resumes next weekend. The Phillies did not put him on the injured list, which would have sidelined him until the seventh game after the break. The Phillies don’t know who will pitch in Wheeler’s place. Could be somebody from off the roster. Could be everybody who is currently on it. In a perfect world, it will be an opportunity to get their entire bullpen one last inning of work before the All-Star layoff.

All that said, caution needs to be king. Wheeler is currently on pace to reach 200 innings for the first time since 2021. A long postseason awaits. If the goal is winning a World Series, than the goal is having Wheeler as strong in October as he has been from April through July.

The playoffs are a 99 percent certainty, according to people who compute that kind of stuff. Every game still matters. The big picture matters just as much.