How much will it cost the Phillies to keep Zack Wheeler beyond 2024?

Wheeler enjoys Philadelphia, and the Phillies want to keep him. But that doesn’t guarantee the sides can agree on two big questions.

Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler has one year left on his five-year, $118 million contract.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published Dec. 15, 2023, 12:13 p.m. ET

Amid the handshakes and the high-fives after the Phillies’ 6-1 romp in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series — their final win of 2023, it turned out — Bryce Harper put Zack Wheeler’s postseason dominance into context.

“I told him after the game, I was like, ‘You’re one of the best pitchers I’ve ever played with, man,’” Harper said that night in Arizona. “I’ve played with a lot of good ones, and he’s easily top three.”

The other two, Harper confided: Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

OK, so Harper was talking only about their mastery on the mound. But for this exercise — forecasting the value of Wheeler’s next contract — Scherzer and Strasburg are apt comps because their names will surely surface when extension talks heat up between the Phillies and their 33-year-old righty.

First, though, let’s establish this: With one season left on his five-year contract, Wheeler ranks among the best free-agent signings in team history. Hyperbole? Hardly. He has a 3.06 ERA and 675 strikeouts in 629⅓ innings with the Phillies. He was the Cy Young Award runner-up in 2021 and leads all pitchers with 19.6 wins above replacement since 2020, according to Baseball-Reference.

All for the bargain price of $118 million.

No joke. Based on Fangraphs’ WAR-to-dollars formula, Wheeler has been worth $154.1 million to the Phillies — and that doesn’t account for his 2.42 ERA in the last two postseasons, 14th all-time among pitchers with at least 60 playoff innings.

It’s no wonder president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said he wants to hammer out an extension with Wheeler. It might be the Phillies’ top remaining priority before opening day, even as they shoot their (long, according to major league sources) shot with free-agent pitching prize Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

“We know we’d like to keep [Wheeler] in the organization for a lengthy period, but it’s not always easy,” Dombrowski said. “It’s something that I’m sure we’ll pursue at some point. But I’m not sure how important it is for them at this time.”

There does seem to be mutual interest. Wheeler’s wife’s family is from New Jersey, part of the appeal of signing here in the first place. He has grown close with Aaron Nola, who last month chose to stay with the Phillies after briefly testing free agency — and receiving offers from other clubs. And Wheeler credits pitching coach Caleb Cotham with having “probably taught me the most about pitching.”

Oh, and Wheeler turned down slightly more money (reportedly $120 million from the White Sox) once before to sign with the Phillies.

But none of that guarantees that the Phillies and Wheeler’s camp (he’s represented by agent B.B. Abbott) will agree on two big things: What is the pitcher’s value? And how many more years can he remain elite?

The Phillies just went through this with Nola. Last spring, they talked with the homegrown righty about an extension that would keep him from reaching free agency. But the sides were so far apart that they broke off the negotiations a week before opening day.

In hindsight, that was hard to believe.

When Nola finally hit the open market last month, he felt such a strong tug to the team and the city that he was a free agent for all of 17 days before coming back for a seven-year, $172 million contract.

But there are differences between Nola’s situation and Wheeler’s. For one thing, Nola is three years younger and hadn’t experienced free agency before. It was only natural for him to be curious to see what it was about.

Wheeler, who turns 34 in May, got drafted by the Giants and traded to the Mets (straight up for Carlos Beltrán, no less) before signing with the Phillies. He also coped with injuries early in his career before working 182⅓ and 195⅓ innings — with an ERA+ of 112 and 103, respectively (100 is league average) — for the Mets in 2018 and 2019.

The Phillies, under former general manager Matt Klentak’s administration, believed in Wheeler’s top-of-the-rotation upside. They nailed it. His year-by-year ERA+ since 2020: 154, 150, 141, and 119. Overall, Wheeler has been 37% better than league average with the Phillies compared with 7% better in his final two seasons in New York.

Wheeler’s closest comps over the last four seasons: Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins (3.13 ERA, 136 ERA+) and the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (3.08 ERA, 136 ERA+) — and nobody disputes their status as aces.

It’s uncommon for a pitcher to put up such markedly better numbers from age 31 to33 than age 27 to 29. But is it reasonable to expect Wheeler to maintain his elite level from, say, age 34 to 37? Hold that thought.

Wheeler will surely seek an annual raise in his next contract. He ranks 11th among starting pitchers in average annual salary at $23.6 million, one spot behind Nola’s new deal ($24.5 million), and will soon be surpassed by Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and likely Jordan Montgomery.

In the same offseason that Wheeler signed with the Phillies, Cole got $36 million per year from the Yankees and Strasburg $35 million annually from the Nationals. Five other starters have since beaten the $30 million mark. Three — Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Jacob deGrom — did so when they were older than Wheeler is now.

Scherzer and Verlander hoisted the bar with matching $43.3 million annual salaries from the Mets. But given the late stage of their careers, they also accepted shorter terms. Scherzer signed for three years at age 37; Verlander received a two-year guarantee before his age-40 season.

Wheeler is closer in age to deGrom, his friend and former teammate with the Mets. deGrom hit the market at 34, with eyepopping numbers (2.05 ERA, 199 ERA+) in three seasons leading up to free agency but a troublesome history of arm injuries. He landed a five-year, $185 million deal with the Rangers last winter.

The Phillies’ foresight prompted them to sign Wheeler four years ago. This time around, they would be investing in him, in part, based on past performance. And pitchers do tend to break more easily in their mid-30s.

But the Phillies have also seen Wheeler evolve in ways that might lead them to believe he will age well. To wit: In 2020 and 2021, his fastball averaged 96.8 mph and 97.0 mph. Over the last two years, it has averaged 95.8 mph and 95.6 mph. But he remained effective because of refined secondary pitches and the addition of new ones, including a sweeper last season.

“When the velo has been just a little lower, his ability to just make pitches, it’s as good as I’ve ever seen,” Cotham said last season. “The days where he can’t just blow it by guys, he’s making a lot of good pitches. The quality of his offspeed is as good as I’ve ever seen it.”

It’s conceivable, then, that Wheeler, more durable than deGrom, could aim for the five-year term while also targeting a raise to above $30 million annually. Although his numbers are short of deGrom’s, they do measure up favorably to Cole’s.

If deGrom’s years and Cole’s dollars (five years, $180 million) represent Wheeler’s contractual ceiling, Sonny Gray’s agreement last month with the Cardinals might be his floor. Gray, eight months younger than Wheeler with only slightly less dominant numbers (3.30 ERA, 130 ERA+ over the last three seasons), signed for three years and $75 million.

One critical caveat: Those contracts were negotiated in free agency. Extension talks are different because only one team is involved. Both sides typically make a concession. When the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay in 2009, they worked out an extension in which he took three years rather than five but got $20 million per year, top-of-the-market money at the time.

After the Phillies and Nola couldn’t come to a similar compromise last spring, he asked a few teammates for advice heading into free agency. Wheeler, notably, chimed in.

“I remember Wheels saying, ‘Hey, if it doesn’t work out, go somewhere you’re going to enjoy,’” Nola said. “Because you are spending, for me it’s seven years, in a place. You want to enjoy it. I’m glad this place worked out because we enjoy it.”

It’s clear that Wheeler enjoys Philadelphia. But will he choose to extend his stay rather than testing his value again in free agency?

Check back in a few months.