Zack Wheeler’s new contract is a big risk, financially and philosophically. The Phillies had to take it.

Zack Wheeler’s new contract is as close to a no-brainer as it gets when you are talking about guaranteeing an aging pitcher $42 million per year. Which is to say that it isn’t very close to a no-brainer at all. Not in nominal terms, anyway. It is a risk, and a substantial one, particularly when you couple it with the $24.6 million in annual salary that the Phillies will be paying Aaron Nola over the next seven years. Add them together and they’ve committed a whopping $66.6 million annually to a couple of players who are entering decline-phase territory at a position where the declines tend to be swift and sudden. Kind of brings a new level of meaning to the mark of the beast, doesn’t it?

Look at it this way: $66.6 million almost as much as the reigning AL East champion Orioles spent on their entire roster last season. Even if Baltimore lost all 26 of its players to season-ending injury, it still wouldn’t lose as much value as the Phillies will if Wheeler and Nola go down at the same time.

That’s not a criticism. That’s just reality. Truth be told, I don’t know quite what to make of Wheeler’s new deal, which will pay him $126 million over three seasons at the ages of 35, 36, and 37. Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 10 non-knuckleballers age 37 or older who have logged a season of 150-plus innings and an ERA+ at or above league average (100). So it can be done. But there is a far greater number of pitchers who were good at 33 and out of the league at 37.

At the same time, scared money don’t make none. As John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski looked at their depth chart over the next few years, they saw a big question staring back at them. If not Wheeler, then who? They’d already tried and failed to throw big money at Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They could have tried to do the same with Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, but he could easily end up landing multiples of Wheeler’s contract if he opts out of his contract at age 34 next winter. Beyond that? The Phillies would have been fishing in waters even more treacherous than Wheeler’s.

Just look at the headlines. Up in Boston, Lucas Giolito may be headed for season-ending surgery just two months after the Red Sox gave him $38.5 million to be their No. 2 starter for two years. New Cardinals ace Sonny Gray is battling a hamstring injury after signing a three-year, $75 million deal this offseason. Last winter, the Mets committed a combined $58.3 million annually to starters Kodai Senga and Justin Verlander, both of whom are now dealing with season-jeopardizing shoulder injuries. New York dodged half of that double barrel by trading Verlander to the Astros midway through 2023. Not so with Senga, who is just one year into a five-year, $75 million deal.

Speaking of last offseason, did we mention Carlos Rodón and Jacob deGrom? The Yankees got 14 starts and a 6.85 ERA after signing Rodón to a six-year, $162 million deal. Meanwhile, deGrom seems likely to miss a significant chunk of the first two years of his five-year, $185 million deal with the Rangers after early-2023 elbow surgery that will sideline him until at least June. At least Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman made it two years into his five-year, $110 million deal before developing shoulder fatigue.

» READ MORE: Can the Phillies unseat the Braves? Here’s the route to a title in the NL East.

Point is, you can’t blame the Phillies for wanting to avoid the free-agent pitching market entirely. By retaining Wheeler and Nola, they at least are eliminating the vast uncertainty that comes with signing a pitcher from outside of the organization. The Phillies know these two pitchers better than anybody. A big risk? Sure. But less so than any of the other ones they could have and would have ended up taking.

The more interesting risk to consider is a philosophical one. The Phillies aren’t just betting on Wheeler and Nola. In a way, they are also betting against baseball’s new pitching paradigm.

The number of pitchers who do what Nola and Wheeler do has been in sharp decline for a decade. In 2014, 78 pitchers logged at least 170 innings. Between 2017-19, an average of 48 pitchers did so. Over the last three seasons, that average has fallen to 35.

There are all sorts of potential explanations for the trend. As hitters continue to get bigger, faster, stronger, and smarter, the effort required to retire them increases. Velocities and spin rates continue to climb, but human arms are made of the same stuff as always. Higher exertion in shorter bursts is a natural adaptation to competitive realities.

One can argue that a team’s financial decision-making should change with the game. For the same AAV the Phillies just committed to Wheeler, they could have signed the top three relievers on this year’s market. Josh Hader, Robert Stephenson, and Reynaldo López combined to pitch 174⅔ innings last season. So they essentially equaled the workload of a starter, with their combined results comparable to an elite one. Innings are innings, however you divvy them up. Or, so the argument goes.

Yet the Phillies’ old-school formula has worked quite well for them. It worked well for the Twins, Blue Jays, and Marlins, who were three of the four other teams to have two starters finish 2023 with 180-plus innings. The Mariners missed the playoffs but won 88 games with a trio of workhorse starters. The Diamondbacks made the World Series with Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen carrying considerable loads. The Rangers won it with Jordan Montgomery averaging six innings per start at the top of the rotation.

In the end, the Phillies are built a certain way, and they weren’t going to suddenly pivot in a sensible manner. They are in the midst of a window, and that window will remain open as long as Wheeler and Nola continue to pitch like they have over the last few seasons. A risk? Sure. But a necessary one.