Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 8 in Pennsylvania; Katie McGinty up by 4 in Senate race

WASHINGTON -- A new poll has good news for Democrats in Pennsylvania, with the survey showing Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by eight percentage points and U.S. Senate candidate Katie McGinty building a four-point advantage over Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

The Monmouth University poll, released Tuesday, is roughly in line with other recent surveys, most of which found Clinton leading by 10 to 11 points in the presidential race and McGinty with a small edge in the Senate contest.

The new poll has a 4.9 percent margin of error, meaning that the Senate race remains up for grabs as the campaign enters its final two months.

Clinton's 48-40 lead among likely voters is fueled by a massive advantage in Philadelphia and its vote-rich suburbs, which account for around 40 percent of the statewide vote. She leads 62-29 in southeast  Pennsylvania, the poll found -- bigger than the 25 point margin President Obama scored there four years ago.

Trump does better in the northeast, central and western parts of Pennsylvania, but those areas have fewer voters. One of Trump's sons, Eric Trump, was scheduled to be in Clarks Summit, Lackawanna County, Tuesday to open the campaign's northeast Pennsylvania campaign office.

"It looks like Clinton's got a friend in Pennsylvania, particularly in the Philly suburbs," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  "A key factor boosting Clinton's support there is that about half of white voters in this region have a college degree, compared to just over one-third in the rest of the state."

Clinton, the poll found, has a 10-point lead among college-educated whites, traditionally a strong Republican voting bloc. Trump leads 57-32 among whites without college degrees.

The biggest gap came among racial groups: 90 percent of Pennsylvania blacks, Hispanics and Asians support Clinton, while 5 percent back Trump. Among whites, Trump leads 48-39.

Clinton's surge since the Democratic National Convention has coincided with gains for McGinty, who is trying to capture a Senate seat that could help determine control of the chamber.

McGinty leads Toomey 45-41, with 8 percent backing Libertarian Edward Clifford and 9 percent undecided, the Monmouth poll found. Several other recent surveys found McGinty with a one to three point edge -- essentially leaving the race in the balance as Labor Day approaches -- though one outlier, from Emerson College, gave Toomey a seven point advantage.

Both campaigns see an opportunity in the fact that McGinty, Gov. Wolf's former chief of staff, remains widely unknown: 56 percent of those surveyed by Monmouth had no opinion of her. Democrats believe that once she gets her name out, more Clinton supporters will come to like her and add to her lead. But Republicans believe they can define McGinty on their terms, and push voters back toward Toomey.

With Democrats showing concern about their chances in Ohio's Senate race and pulling some television ads there, Pennsylvania becomes more critical to their hopes of retaking the Senate.

Toomey leads with independents, 41-29, and has a positive job approval rating, 43-35, Monmouth found, but Democrats have a voter registration edge and believe Clinton will give them a major down-ballot advantage, if she maintain her lead.

The Monmouth poll surveyed 402 likely Pennsylvania voters from August 26 to 29.

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