Eagles vs. Lions predictions
1. How will the Eagles offense do?
Jeff McLane: I don't think anyone – save for perhaps the Eagles – saw the offense being as productive as it's been through three games. The unit is second in the NFL in points per game and Carson Wentz and company have yet to turn the ball over. It's been a ball control offense. The Eagles are first in the league in time of possession. But Doug Pederson hasn't done it by relying heavily on the run game – at least early on. He's followed the Andy Reid blueprint of throwing early to get ahead and then when you get ahead run the ball down a defense's throat. The early passes, for the most part, have been high-percentage attempts – and that's as much about ball control as is running on first and second down. The short tosses – quick outs, slants, screens – have also been designed to ease Wentz into the game. It's worked well because the rookie quarterback has shown maturity beyond his years in reading defenses pre-snap.
I'd expect to see more of the same in Detroit. If it ain't broke why fix it? The Eagles are getting Zach Ertz back, so Pederson will finally have all three tight ends at his disposal. He can now run his three-tight end packages without having to rely on offensive lineman Matt Tobin. Ryan Mathews has been slowed by an ankle injury, and hasn't played much since the opener, but if he's feeling strong this could be the game that the Eagles ride his back. The Lions are shorthanded on defense. Their two best players – defensive end Ziggy Ansah (ankle) and linebacker DeAndre Levy (knee/quad) – haven't practiced and are unlikely to play. Detroit still employs an attacking 4-3 front similar to the one that Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz used there and has brought to Philadelphia.
The Lions' Quandre Diggs is a solid slot cornerback, but Jordan Matthews has a distinct size advantage – 6-foot-3, 212 pounds to 5-9, 186. The Eagles should be able to exploit that matchup.
Zach Berman: Carson Wentz has checked every box to date, and I don't expect the momentum to stop on Sunday. The Lions defense would be tougher if you told me Ziggy Ansah or DeAndre Levy were playing. But without them, the Lions don't have the personnel on defense to cause much concern. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 120.2 against the Lions – the best in the NFL. They have allowed 12 touchdowns and have only one interception. This could be Wentz's best game yet. I've been expecting him to throw an interception the past two weeks, but the Lions haven't proven to be that type of team this season. Slot cornerback Quandre Diggs is a tough player, but he's giving up six inches to Jordan Matthews. Look for the Eagles to get the three tight ends involved, especially in the red zone. The Lions have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in all four games this season. The running game has been impressive this season, but the Lions allow 4.8 yards per carry. My guess is the Eagles use all their running backs similarly to how they did against Pittsburgh, albeit with more Ryan Mathews.
2. How will the Eagles defense do?
McLane: Schwartz returns to Detroit for the second time since he was fired by the Lions following the 2013 season (he came back and won as Bills defensive coordinator two years ago). He knows quarterback Matthew Stafford perhaps as well as any coach. Stafford has the arm strength to make all the necessary throws. If the Lions win, it will likely be because he had a standout day. So how can Schwartz limit Stafford's effectiveness? One way would be to take away his top receiver – Marvin Jones (23 catches for 482 yards and two touchdowns). Jones (foot) was limited on Thursday, but he's expected to play. The Eagles get Leodis McKelvin (hamstring) back after he missed two games with a hamstring injury, and Nolan Carroll had maybe his best performance two weeks ago against the Steelers, but Jones will test the cornerbacks. The Lions have other weapons, although tight end Eric Ebron (ankle/knee) has yet to practice this week.
That essentially leaves running back Theo Riddick, who has had to shoulder more of the rushing load with Ameer Abdullah out with a broken foot. He's never been much of a threat on the ground – Riddick averages less than three yards a carry over his career – but he is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. He toasted Mychal Kendricks a number of times last Thanksgiving. Kendricks won't likely be on the field much in passing situations, so that leaves Jordan Hicks and Nigel Bradham to mostly cover Riddick. The linebackers won't solely be responsible for the tailback, as the Lions like to move Riddick around the formation. But they'll need to keep him in check if they want to get off the field on third down.
Berman: Matthew Stafford can make all the throws – the Eagles saw that last season – and he has formidable weapons, even without Calvin Johnson. You saw two weeks ago what Marvin Jones Jr. can do when he had 205 receiving yards against the Packers. Nolan Carroll has played well this year, and needs to continue it Sunday. Eric Ebron can be a tough matchup when he's healthy, but it sounds like he won't play Sunday. The Eagles will catch a break there. The concern should be the screen game and the threat Theo Riddick poses catching the ball out of the backfield. That can take the place of the running game, because Detroit is not a threat on the ground. They really miss Ameer Abdullah. The Lions have a young offensive line that has allowed 10 sacks in four games. The Eagles can't give Stafford time, so the pass rush must continue to thrive. My guess is they do, and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz continues a hot streak against the organization he used to coach.
3. Who's a player to watch?
McLane: Lane Johnson could be playing in his last game before he's to serve a ten-game suspension. The right tackle has arguably been the Eagles' best offensive lineman this season. He has yet to allow a sack. Johnson should be able to contain defensive end Devin Taylor. Kerry Hyder, who lines up on the other side and has filled on for Ansah, leads the Lions with five sacks. He's been a pleasant surprise, but left tackle Jason Peters should be able to keep him in check.
Berman: I mentioned tight ends earlier, so give me Zach Ertz. He is back in the lineup on the Sunday after missing two games with a displaced rib, and I see him picking up where he left off. He'll be an important safety valve for Wentz and will see a high volume of targets, and the potential absence of Levy takes away a talented cover linebacker. If you're a fantasy football player and are in a points-per-reception league, Ertz is a player to play. I thought he would lead the team in catches this season, and still think he can do it this year even after missing two games.
4. What's your prediction?
McLane: The Eagles are three-point favorites on the road. I don't think last year's blowout loss to the Lions will have much bearing on this game. Different teams. Different coaches. Different circumstances. The Lions opened the season with a 39-35 win over the Colts, but they've lost the next three by a combined score of 11 points. I don't think anyone should mistake them for the Seahawks, but Jim Caldwell's crew plays hard and will compete. The Eagles pass rush has taken 30 minutes or so to get going in each of three games. If the offensive line can protect Stafford – he's been sacked ten times this season – the Lions stand a chance. If not, and if Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox and the Eagles' pass rushers get to the quarterback early, it could be a long game for the Lions. Eagles 27, Lions 16.
Berman: It's never a good sign when public sentiment is on the side of one team, and it's not a big point spread (Eagles -3), but the Eagles have too much going for them here. They have favorable matchups, are the healthier team, and are coming off the bye week. The Lions dominated the Eagles on Thanksgiving last year, but if the Eagles are to be taken seriously, they need to win games like this one. Schwartz will leave Detroit a victor again, and the Eagles will prepare for their first NFC East game with an undefeated mark. Give me Eagles 24, Lions 10.