U.S. Rep. Gerlach in unusual position

Maybe it's time to give Rep. Jim Gerlach his due.

A survivor of near-death political experiences in the last two elections, the Republican from Chester County certainly has proved he can take a punch.

His titanic battles with Democrat Lois Murphy in 2004 and 2006 were subjects of national - even international - attention. TV crews from France and Japan followed him around, and leaders of both parties in Washington directed millions of dollars into the races, which were ranked among the handful of most competitive in the country.

But now, as Gerlach girds for yet another battle this fall, an unexpected thing has happened. The square-jawed, 53-year-old congressman finds himself in a position he has never been in before: He's an actual favorite to win.

As clear indication of that, the Sixth Congressional District of Pennsylvania - split among Montgomery, Chester and Berks Counties - has slipped off the national radar screen.

That can change, of course. November is a long way off.

But increasingly, independent analysts say he may finally be wearing out the Democrats, who struggled this year to identify their candidate - retired corporate executive Bob Roggio, 63, of Malvern. Several top Democrats, including Murphy, passed on the race, in part because of the $3 million to $4 million that a Democrat candidate might need to raise.

"I think Gerlach has discouraged Democrats by proving that he can survive in a tough political environment," said David Wasserman, who tracks U.S. House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "I think that has been the strongest deterrent to would-be Democratic contenders."

The Cook report rates the Sixth District as leaning Republican this year. In past elections, the seat was ranked a toss-up.

Another nonpartisan observer said that by dragging their feet in identifying their candidate, Democrats may have hurt their chance of taking down a potentially vulnerable Republican.

"It does look like maybe Gerlach dodged a bullet this year," said John J. Kennedy, associate professor of political science at West Chester University. "I think there was some surprise that a better-known opponent didn't step forward."

Even Larry Ceisler, a consultant who has been aligned mostly with Democrats, said: "I think to a certain degree Democrats feel burned . . . by coming up short each time against Gerlach. I think it's frustrating."

Gerlach said Friday that a poll he conducted in late May showed him leading Roggio by 26 percentage points. But Roggio has yet to really begin his campaign.

Both national parties appear to be holding back on committing major resources to the race until they see how it starts to play out.

At this point in 2006, Acorn, Act Blue, Move On, and other national Democratic groups were already doing field work and making phone calls in his district, Gerlach said.

"So far, they've pulled back," he said. "We imagine this is going to be a very competitive race, just as it has been. We understand that. But the pace is more moderate than it was two years ago. The tempo is not as quick."

Unlike Murphy in her races, Roggio ranks below the top tier of candidates currently targeted for national help by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But he could move up if he proves himself a whale of a fund-raiser in a federal campaign finance report that is due July 15.

As of April, with his late start, Roggio had raised only $205,000 - compared with $1.5 million for Gerlach.

But Roggio said: "What we're going to show is the ability to raise substantial capital . . . I believe I can show why we're going to win this one."

Gerlach said that the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has provided him with some help in fund-raising, is prepared to weigh in more heavily.

"They're ready to go, if I need them," he said.

The Sixth District was mapped out in 2001 specifically to give Gerlach a good shot at winning the next year. Republicans then controlled the state legislature, which was charged with drawing the boundaries. Gerlach himself was a state senator at the time. The GOP drew the lines to include much of his Senate district.

Gerlach did win - but only with 51.4 percent of the votes, in a contest against Democrat Dan Wofford. In his two battles with Murphy, he slipped to 51 percent in 2004 and 50.7 percent in 2006.

Gerlach, today, is among only eight Republican House members nationally who still survive in districts that voted for Democrat John Kerry over President Bush in 2004.

On paper, his job of getting elected looks even harder now than it did two years ago.

With recent gains in registration, Democrats for the first time this year outnumber Republicans in the district. The breakdown is Democrats, 43 percent; Republicans, 41 percent; independents, 16 percent.

The key to victory, for either party, remains in attracting a substantial number of independent voters.

Analysts give Gerlach credit for working hard at the local level for the last six years to be responsive to his constituents' personal concerns. By his own count, he attended 197 community events last year.

Gerlach, who perceives himself as a moderate, said he probably caught a break when Republicans selected Arizona Sen. John McCain as the party's presidential nominee. It would have been harder for Gerlach to attract independents with a more conservative candidate at the top of the ticket.

His recent poll, his aides said, show Bush with just a 27 percent favorable rating in the district. His own rating is more than double that, they said - 58 percent.

Roggio contends that Gerlach is too conservative for the district.

"He has been in lockstep with Bush on four of [every] five pieces of legislation . . . and he's part of the old guard."

But Gerlach cites a study by Congressional Quarterly showing he voted against Bush's position on legislation 55.3 percent of the time in 2007. (The magazine said he opposed the position of House GOP leaders 26.4 percent of the time.)

Roggio, who has yet to introduce himself to the Sixth District, was not involved in politics until he took early retirement as senior vice president of Zenith Products Corp., a manufacturer of bathroom organizational products.

He then went back to finish the college degree he had never obtained in his 20s, became involved in community affairs, and worked for the Kerry campaign in 2004. In 2006, he was a paid campaign staffer for U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D., Pa.).

Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, a former House member who has donated $1,000 to Roggio's campaign, said it would be a mistake to underestimate Roggio's chances.

"This is going to be a good Democratic year, and I think Bob has a fine chance to win," he said.

Hoeffel acknowledged that "it gets tougher every two years" to defeat any incumbent congressman. And he said that if Gerlach is no longer on national Democrats' top target list, "that may be why."

"Maybe the conventional wisdom is that Gerlach has survived his toughest races," Hoeffel said. "But I think conventional wisdom is wrong. Washington analysts do not always know what they're talking about."