A good year for challengers?

The race for mayor is wide open and - not coincidentally - so are some of this year's City Council contests.

As always, incumbents will have the edge, and all could win reelection. But the challengers' odds are slightly better in this primary than in most, candidates and political consultants said.

They cite a mix of reasons: The relative vulnerability of three Council newcomers, a sense that a growing part of the electorate wants change in city government, and the credentials and high profiles of some of the challengers.

But perhaps the most important factor is the mayor's race itself. In predictable primaries - such as 2003, when Mayor Street was seeking his second term - voter turnout is low, and party-endorsed incumbents typically cruise to wins on the strength of ballots cast by party stalwarts. When the mayor's race is up for grabs, however, more voters show up, weakening the influence of the party machine.

Is all this enough to cause a major Council shake-up?

Yes, said the challengers.

No, said the analysts.

"I think all the incumbents are vulnerable this year," said Marc Stier, who is seeking one of five at-large seats held by Democrats. "People are totally fed up with the direction of politics in the city. I think this is really the year."

Philadelphia political consultant Larry Ceisler has heard that sort of talk before, and he's far from convinced that voters are ready to clean house.

"If you have three incumbents not come back, that would be a major change on Council," Ceisler said.

Four, perhaps five, of the 10 district Council races look competitive this year, analysts said, but the at-large contest historically offers challengers the best chance to knock off an incumbent.

At least nine challengers have lined up to take their shot at replacing one of Council's five at-large Democrats. The all-male group includes, among others, the sons of two mayors, a Council member's former legislative aide, anti-casino activists, and a minister. That could change. The petition filing deadline is tomorrow, and candidates have until March 21 to withdraw.

Seeking reelection are at-large Council members Blondell Reynolds Brown and W. Wilson Goode Jr., whom analysts consider likely to win, and Juan F. Ramos, William K. Greenlee and Jim Kenney, who are seen as more vulnerable.

Ramos' principal weakness is his junior status. He's a first-term councilman, and thus seen as less politically established then longer-serving members. There is the potential for confusion at the ballot as well: He shares a name with at-large challenger Benjamin Ramos.

Greenlee may be the most vulnerable incumbent, analysts said. A longtime aide to the late Councilman David Cohen, Greenlee has never won a Democratic primary. Party insiders nominated him to replace Cohen, and he took office only in November, after a special-election victory against token Republican opposition.

With 15 years on Council and a track record as a strong vote-winner, Kenney is the surprising name on the list. Analysts say he is at risk of losing the support of progressive voters who have strongly backed him in the past.

Last month, Kenney introduced legislation that would have suspended mayoral campaign-finance caps on most donors. The bill was a reaction to the self-financed campaign of millionaire Tom Knox, but some progressives reacted as though Kenney had betrayed them. Following public clamor, Kenney quickly tabled the legislation, but the damage might have been done, analysts said.

When asked how the campaign-finance bill would affect his reelection prospects, Kenney replied: "The point is, it's not there anymore."

"As you spend time in office, you make friends, you make enemies. You have successes and failures," Kenney said. "I don't think it's fatal. I think I've got a record that I can be proud of."

There is a lot of campaigning to come before May 15, but at this stage, one of the strongest challengers appears to be Sharif Street, the mayor's son and a lawyer with the firm of Wolf, Block, Schorr & Solis-Cohen L.L.P.

Sharif Street's biggest edge is name recognition. But he has done well in early fund-raising and has built a credible network of supporters.

"His father's not the most popular politician in the city," Ceisler said. "But if all the people who really like his father vote for him, he wins."

While acknowledging "there are people who don't like my father," Street said he has found that "even those with a negative bias are at least curious about what I have to say."

Other contenders include:

Maceo Cummings, a West Philadelphia businessman and former vice president of the Philadelphia Industrial Development Corp.

Bill Green, a lawyer and son of former Mayor William J. Green III, who has hired some heavyweight campaign consultants.

Derek Green, a former aide to influential Councilwoman Marian Tasco.

Benjamin Ramos, a former state senator who is also past executive director of the Greater Philadelphia Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

Matt Ruben, a teacher and community activist who has been a vocal opponent of casinos along the Delaware River.

Stier, a Temple University professor running on an anti-casino and political-reform platform.

Andy Toy, an economic-development specialist and former official in the Philadelphia Department of Commerce.

The Rev. Jesse Brown, an activist and pastor at Calvary Lutheran Church.