N.J. election: Big stakes, middling interest

The economy is flaccid. Fights over pensions and benefits drew hundreds of protesters to Trenton in June, and budget cuts led an infuriated state Senate president to say he wanted to punch the governor in the head.

But New Jersey's financial woes and acrimonious political climate don't seem to be motivating voters.

Only 55 percent of registered voters surveyed recently realized there is an election Nov. 8 - a day they can pick all 120 of their representatives in Trenton.

Nevertheless, both parties are spending thousands on ads attacking candidates as money-hungry piggies gobbling at the trough of taxpayer dollars, or conniving double-dippers, or shameless benefactors of politically connected contracts.

Legislative elections without a governor's race atop the ticket typically draw fewer voters. Districts with hotly contested races may bring a better crowd, but residents seem particularly tuned out this year, some experts say.

"I think for the first time in recent history we're going to see turnout below 30 percent," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Unless the GOP pulls off truly historic and unexpected gains on Election Day, the results won't change the Democratic leadership in the Assembly or Senate. But the state GOP, eyes trained on Gov. Christie's 2013 reelection bid, is hoping to snap up a few seats to flex its muscle.

With Christie's popularity raking in cash from out of state (more than $600,000 between July and September), the state party has money to burn.

To that end, the New Jersey Republican State Committee has spent nearly $1.9 million since its Oct. 11 filing with the state Election Law Enforcement Commission, according to recent filings with the agency. The single outlay of cash is a show of new fiscal strength owed to Christie's popularity.

The Democratic state party has less to spend (it raised a third what the GOP did between July and September), and its strategy has been to spend more early. But strong Democratic incumbents in less competitive races are funneling money to their comrades in tougher contests. Union financial support has helped some Democrats as well.

In its latest campaign-finance filing, the GOP committee dropped $454,300 to four campaigns directly, including an open-seat Assembly race in Burlington County's Seventh District.

Christie has made two campaign stops in this district, including one last week in Mount Laurel, where Republican candidate Jim Keenan serves as mayor.

Businessman Chris Halgas also is running on the GOP ticket with Sen. Diane Allen (R., Burlington), a popular 14-year incumbent and a known vote-getter.

Troy Singleton, a leader in the carpenters' union, is the new face on the Democratic Assembly slate after former Assemblyman Jack Conners' hometown of Pennsauken was drawn out of the district.

Singleton has strong support from the building trades and state worker unions. In recent weeks, he has picked up $20,900 in contributions to add to the about $172,400 remaining cash in his coffers.

Assemblyman Herb Conaway Jr. (D., Burlington), a physician and lawyer, has served the left-leaning district for almost 14 years, and pollsters expect he will win reelection.

Although political observers expect Allen to beat Democratic challenger Gail Cook, they think the district is Democratic enough to bring Singleton on board.

Republicans, however, are bullish on their chances.

"It's not a Republican district, but it's definitely a lot stronger," said Burlington County GOP chairman Bill Layton.

The New Jersey Republican State Committee contributed an additional $82,560 to Keenan and Halgas, according to campaign-finance reports. The cash infusion nearly triples their cash on hand, which was last reported as $43,700. More cash could be coming next week, GOP sources said.

State workers have mobilized to support Democrats in some tough districts, including State Sen. Bob Gordon (D., Bergen) in the 38th, one of the most closely watched races in this election. He faces Republican John Driscoll, a Bergen County freeholder who has already received more than $67,500 from the Senate Republican Majority, and the New Jersey Republican State Committee recently contributed $220,700 to the campaign.

In the 14th District, unions have bankrolled the majority of the nearly $262,800 that Democratic State Sen. Linda Greenstein has raised in her race. The district, which covers Middlesex and Mercer Counties, is home to a large portion of the state's public employees.

She faces Republican Richard Kanka, a Hamilton Township school board member best known as the father of the slain 7-year-old for whom Megan's Law is named. Kanka has raised about $215,300, and GOP sources say the state party will spend more in the district on his behalf.

In Atlantic County's Second District, a race seen as one of the top two places the GOP could knock off an incumbent senator, state workers' unions have withheld money and support. That's because State Sen. Jim Whelan (D., Atlantic) voted for the pension overhaul, and the unions have not forgotten it.

Although Whelan and his GOP challenger, Assemblyman Vince Polistina, have raised nearly $1 million each for the race, more cash donations are expected in the final days of the race. The New Jersey Republican State Committee dropped an additional $121,040 into Polistina's campaign account within the last several weeks, according to campaign-finance reports.

"Whelan is fighting for his life and he's not going to have any support from public employees or teachers," said Bob Master, regional spokesman for the Communications Workers of America, the state's largest public workers union.

But Murray, head of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, is skeptical that union endorsements, cash, or volunteers will mean much.

"The unions, particularly the public unions who withheld support from some of the candidates, may find out that they were never needed to begin with," Murray said.

Those who do cast ballots this year will be driven by civic duty, party loyalty, or by a specific issue that irks them, said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and the poll director at Fairleigh Dickinson University.

"The strongest partisans are going to come out and the angriest voters are going to come out," he said.

Although the Monmouth University poll showed only 30 percent said they had a strong interest in the election, a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll found that 44 percent of the 800 registered voters surveyed expressed a strong interest.

In public-employee households, that number jumped to 58 percent.

"In a low-turnout election, since we have an identifiable base of support with whom we communicate very heavily, the turnout that we can still produce for our endorsed candidates can be crucial," Master said.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll also showed that for the first time since 2004, a slight majority of voters say the state is headed in the right direction.

This cheers the state GOP; the silent majority just might show up this year.

"The policies of Republicans have voters feeling optimistic about New Jersey's future for the first time in nearly a decade," said Rick Gorka, spokesman for the state GOP.