Bush no shoo-in, but still in a strong position

For Jeb Bush, the initial plan was to stun the opposition into submission with boatloads of money, his network, his lineage.

But nobody in the Republican presidential race was scared off by the former governor of Florida (except, perhaps, Mitt Romney).

Instead, as he prepares to formally launch his candidacy Monday, Bush has slipped from heavy favorite to just one of several candidates clumped together near the top of a growing field. He does not lead in any of the early-voting states, most polls show.

Some of Bush's positions anger elements in the party's right-wing base, Republican strategists and independent analysts say. He favors the Common Core national education standards, for instance, and backs immigration changes that would allow undocumented people a path to citizenship - a policy that conservatives call "amnesty."

The tea party has arisen since the last time Bush had to ask people for votes, his 2002 reelection as Florida governor, and there is a perception that he is too moderate for a more conservative GOP.

And, of course, there's his last name - "the Bush dynasty thing," he's called it. His father, George H.W. Bush, and brother George W. Bush were presidents.

"There's no excitement," said Larry Sabato, political scientist at the University of Virginia. "You get the sense people are supporting him because they're donors or former appointees. Average rank-and-file party voters, what exactly are they supposed to be excited about? Bush can say 'I'm my own man' all he wants, but that doesn't make it true. He grew up in the same nuclear family, with the same advantages as his father and his brothers. And now he's going to declare independence?"

Last week, Bush reshuffled his team of advisers amid hand-wringing from donors and supporters about the trajectory of the campaign. According to a June 2 ABC/Washington Post poll, Bush was down to 10 percent (from 21 percent in March), with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul sitting at 11 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 10 percent.

In Europe polishing foreign-policy credentials, Bush disputed the notion that he should be dominating the field at this point, given the brand name and the fund-raising success.

"I know I'm going to have to earn this," he told reporters last week in Berlin. "It's a long haul. You start whenever you start, and you end a long, long way from today. I just urge everybody to be a little more patient about this."

Bush himself has played it humble as he has traveled the country considering a run over the last several months, but the expectations were high. Backers, for instance, boasted an allied super PAC, Right to Rise, would raise $100 million. He landed top-shelf advisers.

For all the concerns, Bush has formidable assets. His family ties have helped him lock up a huge share of the Republican donor class and the party establishment. He has been involved in four of his father's campaigns (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992) and two of his brother's.

"It's the family business," said a senior Iowa campaign strategist. "Anybody who's ready to write the obituary of the Bush campaign should drink Drano for breakfast. They're coming, and it's going to be soon."

Christian conservatives in recent contests have dominated Iowa's kickoff caucuses, set for Feb. 1, and Bush might not win the state, but he's in the mix with Rubio and Walker, and all he has to do is better than expected.

Bush's interest helped dissuade 2012 nominee Romney from running again, and it complicated the path of Gov. Christie, whose likely candidacy also is predicated on support from establishment Republicans.

Yet the field has only grown. In April, Rubio, a Bush protégé, announced his campaign, setting up a potentially epic primary battle for Florida, one of the first winner-take-all contests, scheduled for March 15. The state has 29 electoral votes, and GOP leaders are eager to carry it after falling short in 2008 and 2012.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, making preparations to run, acknowledged that Bush had left him an opening.

"I didn't think I was going to be back up here again, because frankly I thought Jeb was just going to suck all the air out of the room, and it just hasn't happened," Kasich told New Hampshire business leaders at a June 5 event in Hooksett.

Over the last month, Bush has struggled with his family's legacy. He stumbled over questions on the now-unpopular Iraq war started by his brother, first saying he would have approved the invasion, too, even in retrospect, before saying he would not have, given faulty intelligence about the country's possession of weapons of mass destruction. (He also mildly criticized federal spending in George W.'s administration.)

The media's relentless focus on the family ties rather than on Jeb Bush's strong conservative record as Florida governor has contributed to tightening polls, said Al Cardenas, a Miami lawyer and longtime Bush friend.

"Everything's been about 'Bush,' not Jeb," Cardenas said. "That's going to level off, and as the campaign progresses, the story is going to be more about Jeb, not his last name."

It's no accident that campaign materials refer to "Jeb 2016."

Republican activists will get the chance to check out five of the party's declared or potential 2016 presidential candidates in Philadelphia this week at the Northeast Republican Leadership Conference.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Gov. Christie, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina have confirmed they will speak, organizers said.

The gathering is scheduled Thursday through Saturday at the Sheraton Philadelphia Downtown Hotel.

Pennsylvania GOP chairman Rob Gleason organized the conference to highlight the importance of the region to the party. Massachusetts and Maryland, among the most Democratic-dominated states, elected Republican governors last year, for instance.

Also scheduled to appear: Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus, strategist Karl Rove, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, and Iowa Rep. Steve King.

For more information, visit http://www.2015leadership.gop/.