Villanova football almost in a must-win situation against Maine
The Wildcats are 0-2 in the CAA which has seven ranked teams.
Under normal circumstances, a 3-2 start to an 11-game schedule would be a concern, but it would not set up a must-win scenario.
Villanova, however, is in a unique situation.
After their loss last week at Stony Brook, the Wildcats have now dropped their first two games in the Colonial Athletic Association.
It won't necessarily be a sudden-death situation for 'Nova (3-2, 0-2) when it travels to Maine (2-2, 1-0) on Saturday, but a third straight CAA loss would put the Wildcats chance of qualifying for the 2018 FCS playoffs on serious life support.
At the very least, a win would allow the Cats to maintain some measure of ownership of their ability to make the 24-team playoff field, including Villanova which is 19th.
"We're in a must-win this week because it is our next game," Villanova coach Mark Ferrante said. "That's been our approach and that's how it is always going to be."
Stony Brook moved up to 13th off its win over 'Nova and Towson (23rd in STATS, 24th in AFCA) beat the Cats on the Main Line.
Maine dropped to 25th after losing to Yale.
Consensus No. 2 James Madison comes to Villanova next weekend, but the Wildcats do not have Elon (10th and 9th) or Rhode Island (18th and 17th) on the schedule.
There are 10 automatic bids into the FCS Playoffs that go to conference champions.
That leaves a lot of teams fighting to get one of those 14 at-large bids.
For the last four seasons, the CAA has sent four teams to the FCS Playoffs. It had a league-record five in 2007, 2008 and 2011.
It's had at least three teams in the postseason for 12 straight seasons and at least two for the past 27.
The history of the CAA works in the favor of Villanova but only if the Wildcats set themselves up as one of the top teams in the conference.
With CAA games making up the rest of its schedule, Villanova will be in full scramble mode.
The season-opening win over FBS Temple is a strong plus on the resume of the Wildcats but that won't matter if the they don't finish near the top of the CAA.
The standings will shuffle as ranked teams play each other in the conference and if the Cats run the table over the final seven, they will return to the playoffs.
If Villanova loses to James Madison, which takes a record 20-game CAA winning streak into Elon, and no one else, it will likely have a strong enough case to impress the playoff selection committee.
"[All the teams in the CAA] have to play each other so at some point and time that will all come out in the wash," Ferrante said. "Right now, we just have to focus on going up there and facing the Maine Black Bears. They're still ranked. We're ranked."
The margin of error for the Wildcats is just about all used up.
VILLANOVA AT MAINE – 3:30 p.m.
Records: Villanova (3-2, 0-2 in CAA); Maine (2-2, 1-0).
Coaches: Mark Ferrante 8-8 in second season at Villanova; Joe Harasymiak 12-13 in third season at Maine.
TV/radio: 610 ESPN; Live audio: www.villanova.com
History vs. team: Villanova won 31-0 last season and leads the all-time series 12-9.
Three things to watch:
– Villanova quarterback Zack Bednarczyk will be a game-time decision after he injured his throwing arm in the loss at Stony Brook. He threw for three touchdowns beforebeing injured to increase his season total to 12. Sophomore Jack Schetlich came on in relief and threw a touchdown pass.
– After going 1-5 in its first six visits to Maine, Villanova has won four straight at Alfond Stadium. The Wildcats have scored an average of 22.7 points in those games. Overall Nova has a four-game winning streak against the Black Bears.
– The Wildcats have turned the ball over nine times with two coming on kick off return fumbles that turned the momentum in the losses to Towson and Stony Brook. Villanova has forced 10 turnovers while Maine has only given the ball away three times.