Gonzo: A fantasy drafting guide

If you haven't started thinking about your fantasy football draft, that's a mistake. The fantasy season, like winter, is often harsh and unforgiving. Those who underestimate its power and fail to steel themselves are left to suffer the same fate as Christopher McCandless, the student and outdoorsman who inspired Into the Wild.

That means you'll die alone in an abandoned bus. No one wants that.

Fear not. Page 2 has spent quite a bit of time getting ready for its many drafts, and we've stockpiled more than enough fantasy football provisions and know-how to keep every unprepared geek alive - at least for a little while. You're welcome.

Here, then, are some helpful(ish) Dos and Don'ts to remember when drafting your team:

Do: Study. The opening line from Rounders has been oft-quoted and overused, but it's worth repeating for fantasy football purposes. The abridged version: If you can't spot the sucker, you are the sucker. It was a gross Hollywood oversimplification of poker, but it's not so absurd when applied to fantasy football drafts.

A little homework goes a long way. You don't want to be the dolt who doesn't know Sidney Rice is injured, Vincent Jackson is suspended for the beginning of the season, and Matt Leinart - who watched Derek Anderson start the Cardinals' third preseason game - has struggled mightily in the absence of Kurt Warner. People like that end up victimized - and laughed at when they draft LaDainian Tomlinson thinking he's still an RB1, only to later learn LT is now the backup running back for the Jets. It also doesn't hurt to do a few mock drafts to prepare a solid strategy.

Don't: Be a homer. You're not alone if you think the Eagles' offense could put up serious points this year (even though the Birds struggled to do that at times during the preseason). But that doesn't mean you have to draft Kevin Kolb, Brent Celek, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, and Shady McCoy. One or two will be just fine - but only if they fit a need and you can get them in the appropriate round. Don't reach. Just because they wear green doesn't make them superhuman. Each year, someone in your draft will take one or more Eagles two or three rounds before that player should be selected. If you grab Kolb before Matt Schaub or Tony Romo, you might as well stamp a big, fat "H" on your forehead.

Do: Think young. Especially when it comes to running backs, people have a tendency to overvalue guys with names. Running backs such as Tomlinson and Clinton Portis aren't solid No. 1 options any longer. Depending on which site you use for fantasy info - I like CBSSports - Portis is getting drafted, on average, in the eighth round. Tomlinson in the ninth or 10th. Time to wrap your head around taking guys such as Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, CJ Spiller, Jahvid Best, et al. They won't all have breakout years, of course, but potential is always better than decline.

Don't: Try to be Nostradamus. Thinking young is one thing. Reaching is another. If there's a prospect you've targeted, that's fine - just don't spend your first-round pick on Joe McKnight. Actually, don't use any pick on McKnight. His progress in New York has been slow this preseason, and he's playing behind Shonn Greene and LT.

Do: Load up on receivers early. There was a time when the draft strategy was to grab running backs in the first two or three rounds. Not any longer. There's plenty of depth at running back, and a Jamaal Charles always comes out of nowhere later in the year for you to claim off the waiver-wire heap. After the top 10 (some might even say eight) receivers, however, things get ugly. If you don't grab one of the elite wideouts in the first two rounds, you'd better hope Ed Wade is in your league - because without a lopsided trade later to fix your roster, you'll be in trouble.

Don't: Take a kicker before the last round. This should be self-evident, but every year someone - usually the aforementioned and unprepared sucker - takes a kicker too early. Last season, the No. 1 and No. 10 kickers in the league were separated by about 30 points. Statistically, there's no real difference between them.

Do: Take some chances. The later rounds are for sleepers. Once you draft your starters and a backup at WR, RB, and QB, don't be afraid to gamble. I like running backs Leon Washington, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Bernard Scott; wideouts Percy Harvin (especially now that Rice is hurt) and Johnny Knox; and quarterbacks Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer, and Chad Henne. Almost all of them can be had in the eighth round or later in most traditional leagues and snake drafts.

Don't: Be the drunk guy. You'll end up starting Terry Bradshaw in Week 1. That probably won't work out.

Do: Get the other guys drunk. That's pretty much my entire draft strategy. Considering the people in my leagues, I like my chances to execute.

GONZO'S FANTASY RANKINGS

QUARTERBACKS

1. Drew Brees, NO

2. Aaron Rodgers, GB

3. Peyton Manning, IND

4. Tom Brady, NE

5. Matt Schaub, HOU

6. Tony Romo, DAL

7. Philip Rivers, SD

8. Brett Favre, MIN

9. Joe Flacco, BAL

10. Kevin Kolb, EAGLES

RUNNING BACKS

1. Chris Johnson, TEN

2. Adrian Peterson, MIN

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC

4. Ray Rice, BAL

5. Frank Gore, SF

6. Steven Jackson, STL

7. Michael Turner, ATL

8. DeAngelo Williams, CAR

9. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT

10. Ryan Grant, GB

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson, HOU

2. Randy Moss, NE

3. Reggie Wayne, IND

4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

5. Brandon Marshall, MIA

6. Roddy White, ATL

7. Miles Austin, DAL

8. DeSean Jackson, EAGLES

9. Calvin Johnson, DET

10. Greg Jennings, GB

TIGHT ENDS

1. Dallas Clark, IND

2. Antonio Gates, SD

3. Brent Celek, EAGLES

4. Vernon Davis, SF

5. Jermichael Finley, GB

6. Tony Gonzalez, ATL

7. Jason Witten, DAL

8. Chris Cooley, WAS

9. Kellen Winslow, TB

10. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN