Dick Jerardi makes his picks for Saturday’s Cotillion and Pa. Derby at Parx
The first post of Saturday's 13-race card at Parx is 12:25 pm, the last post 6:40 pm.
The first post of Saturday's 13-race card at Parx is 12:25 p.m., the last post 6:40 p.m.. In between, more than $3 million in purses will be on the line during a day that includes five stakes, culminating with the $1 million Cotillion (Race 10) and the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (Race 11). The two big races will be shown live during a 90-minute show on NBC Sports Philadelphia, starting at 4:30 p.m.
With all this action, there is one age-old race track question that must be asked: Which horses do you like?
I have seven opinions throughout the card. Let's start at the end.
I see only two likely winners in the Pa. Derby. Either you like Hofburg, coming off a career race and said by trainer Bill Mott to be in the best form of his life. Or you like McKinzie, probably the second best 3-year-old in the country this spring before a rear leg injury took him off the Triple Crown trail.
I like McKinzie. The Bob Baffert-Mike Smith trainer/jockey combination is very good just about everywhere but lethal when they come east. If McKinzie has gotten better, as Baffert thinks he has, his best race is better than any other horse's best race. The six-month layoff is obviously a cause for concern, but if Baffert deems that colt ready, that is enough for me.
If I had a logical reason to think Monomoy Girl was going to get beaten in the Cotillion, I would be happy to share it. I don't have one. I love that trainer Brad Cox gave her two months off after the CCA Oaks at Saratoga while some of her top competitors ran in the Alabama at Saratoga.
That Monomoy Girl is also going to get first run on her major opponents in this race going just a mile and a sixteenth makes her the obvious choice to win her ninth race in 10 tries. The price won't be very appetizing, but the brilliant filly is going to be very tough to catch.
When I saw Firenze Fire run a sensational race against an inside bias at Saratoga in the Allen Jerkens Stakes, I could not wait to bet on him when he ran next. I was not expecting it to be in the $300,000 Gallant Bob, which will go as Race 9 and be on the TV show on tape.
I am not sure six furlongs is Firenze Fire's best distance, but I love that he has the outside post, and I really don't see that much early speed that could get away from him and give him too much ground to make up. I like a 10-9 exacta and a 10-4-9 trifecta.
Can't imagine the locals were thrilled to see Collected in the entries for the $150,000 Pa. Derby Champion Stakes (Race 8). Aztec Sense, Zanotti, Prince of Hempt and Grasshoppin all fit this race. Collected, winner of the 2017 Pacific Classic and runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Classic to Horse of the Year Gun Runner, does not fit at all. He is a Grade I horse in against some nice local stakes horses.
Baffert told me Collected "needs a race" to get ready for the BC Classic in six weeks. That is a way of saying Collected, who has not raced since January, will not be at his best. But he won't need to be at his best to beat these horses, and he may be the lone speed. I like two exactas — 7-3, 7-5. Don't be surprised if one or more of the other eight horses scratch rather than run against Collected.
I don't really have an opinion in the $100,000 Alphabet Soup (Race 7) other than it is a very competitive group of Pennsylvania-bred grass horses.
I see a cold punch 8-3 exacta in Race 2. Gotham Gala dominated in her first race on dirt with her speed. I see a similar scenario with hopefully Afleet Tizzy closing for second.
Catoria has dominant speed figures in Race 4. I am going to play two trifectas — 7-2-6 and 7-6-2.
Smokin Nitro loves the main track at Parx, with four wins and a photo-finish loss. I like a 7-10 exacta in Race 5.
In addition to all the horses, there will be a human attraction at Parx. Ryan Arcidiacono, most outstanding player of the 2016 Final Four for Villanova and a graduate of Neshaminy High, just across Route 1 a few miles from Parx, will be at the track to sign autographs and give the "riders' up" call for the Pennsylvania Derby.