Trump leads Biden in Pennsylvania — and four other swing states in new poll

There are serious warning signs for President Joe Biden’s reelection chances in Pennsylvania a year out from the presidential election.

A New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday found Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup in Pennsylvania by four points. Even more concerning for the president, the poll found Biden also trails Trump in four other swing states critical to his reelection and just narrowly leads Trump in Wisconsin.

The poll, almost exactly a year away from the 2024 election, shows a frustrated electorate uninterested in politics with a view of the president that has declined since his 2020 election, predominantly due to the state of the country and growing concerns over Biden’s ability to do the job. The erosion of Biden’s support is particularly stark among some key constituencies such as Black, Hispanic, and younger voters.

Trump remains unpopular as well but is seen as better equipped to handle issues like the economy and jobs, which rank high on voters’ list of important issues.

Overall, Trump leads Biden 48% to 44% among registered voters across the six states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Based on previous elections, that would likely be more than enough for Trump to secure 270 electoral votes and the presidency.

A lot can change in a year — Trump, the GOP front-runner, faces multiple criminal and civil cases playing out in court. And incumbent presidents often face low approval ratings that can improve closer to the general election. But the poll shows both Biden and Trump will have work to do to rally (and hold onto) voters in the six states that largely determine the election.

That is something the Biden campaign acknowledged Sunday in a fundraising email that also noted polling from 2011 that showed President Barack Obama behind in some swing states before he went on to win reelection.

”We know from experience that more than a year out from the election, polls are not predictive,” campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez wrote. “The truth is: Winning reelection is going to be hard. We have our work cut out for us. The last election was won by less than 50,000 votes. You better believe it’ll be that close again.”

The survey of 600 registered Pennsylvania voters had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Recent polling in the state showed Biden and Trump in a statistical tie or with Biden leading slightly. A Franklin & Marshall survey from last week found 44% of poll respondents would vote for Biden and 42% would vote for Trump, well within the poll’s 4.1% margin of error.

Sunday’s New York Times poll found Vice President Kamala Harris would do very slightly better in Pennsylvania with Trump leading her in a head-to-head matchup 47% to 44%.

Pennsylvania was key to Biden’s win in 2020 and the president focused massive attention on the state, where he has roots in Scranton. He’s already spent a considerable amount of time in Philadelphia since becoming president — visiting the city more than a dozen times this year alone, including for one of his only campaign rallies, which he held with union workers.

Trump won the state in 2016 by a narrow margin of less than 1%. Biden reclaimed the state, winning it by a 1% margin, or about 80,000 votes.

Biden’s campaign knows how important Pennsylvania will be. They’re also acutely aware of Biden’s popularity problem, taking some steps in recent months to try to boost his likability. The campaign launched $25 million in ads in swing states including Pennsylvania. Spots have aired during NFL games and MLB playoff games in Philadelphia and other Pennsylvania markets.

The campaign has also sent Democratic surrogates, along with Biden and Harris, around the country to try to spread the “Bidenomics” message to voters by pointing to record investment in infrastructure and manufacturing.

But Sunday’s poll shows that message has not resonated.

In Pennsylvania 55% of registered voters rated the economy and jobs the number-one issue. Asked to rank economic conditions, 81% said the economy was fair or poor, and 19% responded it was good or excellent.

Biden’s net approval rating in Pennsylvania was 40% compared to 58% of voters who said they disapproved of the job he was doing as president.

In the wider survey of 1,300 voters across the six states, Trump was more trusted on issues related to the economy.

It’s not necessarily the case that Trump is growing his support so much as that Biden is losing his.

Biden saw some of the steepest drops in support among younger, nonwhite, and less-engaged voters. He did particularly poorly with voters who sat out the midterm elections, suggesting the coalition he built in 2020 might not be enthused to vote next year, which would seriously impede his chances.

In Pennsylvania, Trump led Biden 53% to 39% among men. Biden led with women (48% to 45%); Black voters (71% to 20%), and Hispanic voters (55% to 35%), but all three voting groups represented a drop from where Biden had been with them in 2020.

The level of support for Trump from Black voters in Pennsylvania is a noticeable jump from exit polls in 2020 which showed about 7% of Black voters in Pennsylvania backing him.

There have been warning signs for Democrats in the state, which saw drops in Hispanic, and to a lesser extent, Black turnout in the midterms last year. Philadelphia’s turnout has continued to dip in recent years, shrinking the city’s share of the Democratic vote, which the party has long relied on to carry the state.

Both Trump and Biden are more disliked than liked by Pennsylvania voters. Trump has a favorable rating of just 41% among voters and an unfavorable rating of 57%.

That’s nearly identical to Biden’s rating.

But the survey showed Biden would have an uphill battle to recapture the coalition that elected him last time. Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win the GOP primary despite multiple indictments actively playing out in court against him.

While voters said they found the age of each man concerning, age is more problematic for Biden. In Pennsylvania, 69% of registered voters strongly, or somewhat, agreed that Biden is too old to be president. Those who disagreed made up 30% of the sample.

That echoed a Franklin & Marshall poll published last week in which 43% of respondents said both Trump and Biden were too old to serve; 41% said only Biden was too old and 4% said only Trump was.

In surveys of all six swing states, Biden is ranked more trusted on abortion issues.

Democrats see abortion rights as a coalescing topic and it’s one they’ve leaned into ahead of Tuesday’s general election in Pennsylvania, particularly in the hotly contested state Supreme Court race.

Biden’s position on abortion is much more in line with Pennsylvania voters — 66% of whom say abortion should be always or mostly legal. Another 29% say it should be mostly or always illegal.

But how motivating abortion rights will be remains to be seen. In Pennsylvania abortion ranked low on the list of most important issues to voters, dwarfed by the economy and jobs, meaning it might not be the issue that activates disengaged voters who are threatening to stay on the sidelines.