Why President Biden’s economic reelection pitch could be a hard sell in Philadelphia

When President Joe Biden pitched his plan last week to build the economy from the “bottom up,” he did so in the poorest big city in America.

Nearly a quarter of Philadelphians are living below the poverty line and almost half meet the definition of “cost-burdened” — spending at least 30% of their income on rent.

Two days after Biden’s speech, 2,000 protesters filled the streets to call for more affordable housing after a series of eviction-related shootings in the city.

The backdrop was a striking illustration of the messaging challenge ahead for Biden’s reelection campaign.

Biden has, by some economists’ calculations, ushered in the most significant programs for people living at the bottom of the economic ladder since President Lyndon B. Johnson. He’s working to highlight his “Bidenomics” policies for voters. But the inflation hangover Americans feel even as the economy improves, coupled with intractable causes of poverty in big cities, will make that difficult.

“Policies he implemented have been extraordinarily beneficial to lower-income households,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “I’m sure he’s very frustrated by the fact that he’s not getting any credit for that but at the end of the day, poverty’s still very problematic in big American cities like Philadelphia.”

Some are still looking for more from the Biden administration. Mariana Chilton, director of the Center for Hunger-Free Communities at Drexel University, said the start and then stop of expanded child tax credits felt like economic whiplash for low-income families. Efforts are underway in Congress, with pressure from the White House, to extend the benefit.

“If his administrations does not reinstate the child tax credit, one of the most profound investments in the American people in a long time, and one that started to help us begin get on par with most developed nations, then Bidenomics is an empty promise.”

Republicans criticize Bidenomics as an empty phrase and blame Biden for record-high inflation that has since come down substantially.

But Democrats are still hopeful Biden’s message will help him win a second term.

”Some people are doing better,” State Sen. Sharif Street (D., Philadelphia) said after Biden’s remarks last week at the Philly Shipyard. “And those folks need to understand the connection. And I think more will feel it soon. When you look at the billions of dollars that opened up in Pennsylvania, it’s substantial.”

Biden is making his reelection pitch all about the economy — infrastructure projects, lower costs of prescription drugs, and expanded social programs. It’s an attempt to rebrand himself as an economic driver after the midterms, when Republicans blamed soaring inflation on Biden’s big spending.

“Biden is going to be judged on his handling of the economy, so trying to frame around the economy this far out aggressively, it’s smart,” said Devin Gosnell, a Philadelphia-based Democratic ad maker.

Zandi, at Moody’s, said another reason for Biden to run on his economic agenda is the breadth of his accomplishments. “You can agree or disagree with the legislation, but in terms of the scope and scale, it’s been incredible ... and it’s going to change big parts of the economy.”

Republicans are confident voters won’t buy that argument.

“Unless Bidenomics is putting money in pockets and supplementing for gas prices, it’s not gonna have a resonating effect on the local citizenry in this city ,” said Calvin Tucker, second vice chair of the Philadelphia Republican Party.

Biden is making a bet that things will look good come November 2024. And he’s using it as an argument to keep him in office.

“I’m not here to declare victory,” Biden said last week. “We got a long way to go in the economy. I’m here to say we have more work to do. We have a plan that’s turning things around pretty quickly. Bidenomics is just another way of saying ‘restore the American dream.’”

Polling shows just about a third of voters give Biden positive marks for his handling of the economy. In Philadelphia and big cities like it, there’s the added challenge of people feeling uninterested in politics.

A January poll from the Lenfest Institute found 65% of Philadelphia residents thought the city was moving in the wrong direction. Poverty has remained stubbornly high, at 22.8%, little change from 2019 to 2021. Black and brown Philadelphians are hardest hit, with 28% of Black residents and 30% of Latino residents living in poverty, according to Pew Charitable Trusts, compared to just 12.6% of white residents.

Improved federal policies have greatly reduced poverty since the 1970s, but gaps in those programs remain, and the country still has a much higher share of children living in poverty than other similarly wealthy nations.

“Without investments in paid family sick leave, universal pre-K, and child tax credits, I don’t see much of a future for the country,” Chilton said. “Rather, I see a lot more suffering ahead.”

Housing also remains a major issue in Philadelphia. Analilia Mejia, co-executive director for the progressive Center for Popular Democracy, which held the march Saturday in Philly, said housing was the No. 1 issue in a survey of members. ”President Biden has a real opportunity to lift up America’s housing crisis and deliver something that people can immediately feel the impact of — building social housing, protecting tenants, and calling on Congress for a massive investment in public and social housing.”

Philadelphia, which is key for any Democratic candidate hoping to win statewide, has seen turnout decrease in recent elections as the poverty rate has stayed stagnant and crime rose heavily in the last few years.

“Biden has to answer to a lot of working poor in the biggest poor city in the country,” Gosnell said.

“He is gonna have to make it very real to them how his economic agenda has helped them and why he’s a better choice than the Republican nominee, who can promise change, which can be an effective message.”

The city’s economic outlook is not entirely grim. While unemployment is higher in Philadelphia than statewide, the city’s 4.4% unemployment rate is down from 12% in 2020 and 9% in 2021, and the city added an estimated 30,000 jobs from 2021 to 2022.

And the city will benefit from the $8.9 billion going toward public infrastructure projects statewide.

While poverty remains a long-standing problem in big cities, the overall glum feelings about the economy don’t necessarily match the outlook, Zandi said.

“With each passing month, people will say, ‘OK, I get it. It feels better,’” Zandi said. “And if a year from now in the middle of the election, inflation’s [down], I think people will start saying good things about the economy.”