What just happened? | PA 2024 Newsletter

In this edition:

— Julia Terruso, Anna Orso, Gillian McGoldrick, Katie Bernard, Sean Collins Walsh, Oona Goodin-Smith, pa2024@inquirer.com

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As the red election dust settles and Pennsylvania Democrats begin self-reflecting – and finger-pointing – reporters Julia Terruso and Anna Orso take a look at the party’s future:

Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss in Pennsylvania had Democrats reeling on Wednesday morning as the party grappled with how its message and outreach failed to connect with voters here.

But don’t expect any major Democratic Party leadership shake-ups.

Longtime Democratic City Committee Chair Bob Brady, faced with the lowest margin of victory a Democratic presidential candidate had gotten in the city in two decades, cast blame squarely on the Harris campaign on Wednesday and doubled down on the criticism in a Fox News interview on Thursday.

Harris staffers responded just as bluntly, calling Brady’s turnout operation “worthless.”

Those sentiments were shared by some progressives who have long slammed Brady’s ability to turn out Democrats in the city.

The full turnout picture still wasn’t available Thursday as votes continued to be counted but it appeared the number of voters who cast ballots in Philly was about 41,000 fewer than 2020.

“Brady is the issue. Brady has been the issue. I’m not really going out on a limb in saying this, because this is what we’ve been saying,” said Salaah Muhammad, Pennsylvania organizing director of the Working Families Party, which has a history of tension with the Democratic City Committee. “He’s continuously concerned with how he remains in control rather than ‘how do we address the needs of voters?’”

But Harris’ performance outside Philly provides some cover. She lost ground statewide and in swing states across the country.

Her margins in Philly seriously underperformed Biden’s, but it’s unlikely the city could have saved her statewide. Trump’s advantage over Harris in the state was 114,000 votes as of Thursday.

Brady, 79, has been chair since 1988 and said Wednesday he’s not going anywhere.

“We did everything we could with limited resources we had, and people just rejected her and voted for him,” Brady said.

Brady isn’t up for reelection until after the 2026 primary. The City Committee chair is elected by its ward leaders, who are largely faithful to Brady.

State Sen. Sharif Street, who has chaired the statewide Democratic Party since 2022, would also be up for reelection in June 2026. That’s the same time he could be running in a Congressional primary if U.S. Rep. Dwight Evans decides not to seek another term. (Street has publicly expressed interest in the seat if Evans opts not to run).

Street put out a statement Wednesday thanking the 67 party chairs and canvassers who he said knocked on 11 million doors and made 31 million phone calls statewide. “You navigated local challenges, built coalitions and helped us reach voters from every walk of life,” he wrote.

There was no evidence in the immediate aftermath of the election of an organized public pressure campaign to push either leader to step down – even from their critics.

“Asking for Brady to step down is akin to banning fax machines,” said state Rep. Chris Rabb, a Democrat and longtime critic of the party. Rabb’s argument is the party hasn’t been an effective turnout machine for decades, so changing who’s in charge likely won’t change the output.

Ryan Boyer, head of the politically powerful building trades unions, said on Thursday it wasn’t Brady’s fault there was a nationwide shift right.

“It’s the national mood of the country,” he said. “I don’t think Brady or the city party is to blame.”

🔴 Across the commonwealth, Republicans won big on Tuesday, from row offices to Congressional races and a U.S. Senate seat. They even flipped a state Senate seat in once-reliably blue Northeast Philadelphia, which Democrats called “the most embarrassing part” of the election results.

👨 In Pennsylvania, a key demographic helped vault Trump back to presidency: young, Gen-Z men, who swung margins away from Democrats entirely, moving 30 points toward Trump compared with 2020.

💵 Many Latino voters set aside Trump’s incendiary rhetoric about their communities, or their disdain for his personality, to vote for him in favor of his promises on the economy. “It’s not just Hispanic voters,” said one Pennsylvania state senator. “I think that’s true across the gamut.”

🏛️ Republicans also maintained control of the Pennsylvania state Senate. But as of Thursday night, control of the state House still hung in the balance — hinging on a single seat in Cambria County.

🌊 The red wave also washed over perennially blue New Jersey, where Harris won the Garden State by the smallest margin of any Democratic presidential candidate since 1992. And some were left wondering: Is Jersey becoming a swing state?

📖 Elsewhere, election night made history. U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester became Delaware’s first elected Black female senator, New Jersey’s Rep. Andy Kim became the first Korean American elected to the U.S. Senate, and Delaware State Sen. Sarah McBride was elected to become the first openly transgender member of Congress.

➡️ Philadelphians who supported Harris are grappling with what her loss means for the country at large and for them personally, and are forging their ways forward — and, some said, Black women are feeling the loss acutely.

🍺 The emotionally charged responses to Trump’s win varied across the region: some held prayer services to cope, others rejoiced at Bible study, students walked out of class, people cried, and some smoked celebratory cigars. And in Philly’s bars on Wednesday, people were “drinking like it’s Saturday night.”

🎤 Now we’re passing the mic back to Anna for a look at how Trump improved his margins in deep-blue Philly:

🗓️ One hundred years ago, back in early October, we brought you a story about working-class voters in Philadelphia, and how Democrats were losing ground with them. Some of you Dems didn’t want to hear it.

The results of Tuesday’s election show that trend wasn’t only real, but it’s accelerated. Yes, Trump lost Philadelphia by a ton, garnering just 20% of the vote. But that’s one of the best performances for a Republican presidential candidate here in years, and it blunted Harris’ ability to run up the score and make up for Democrats’ losses in rural areas.

Across the city, Trump’s support increased most in precincts where incomes were lowest. This was true across racial groups.

Trump’s biggest base of support in the city is with white, working-class voters. As of Wednesday, he was winning outright in five of the city’s 66 political wards, two more than he did four years ago. All of them are majority white, and Trump carried about 30% of the vote citywide in majority-white precincts.

But the biggest actual shift was among Latino voters, as was the case in jurisdictions across the country. Trump carried 22% of the vote in the city’s majority-Latino precincts, a 16 percentage point increase compared to 2016.

For example, Trump drew nearly 23% of the vote in North Philadelphia’s 7th Ward, his vote total growing by about 1,000 votes compared to 2016, while Democrats lost nearly 2,000 votes across the same timeframe.

In the predominantly Latino 43rd Ward, Trump grew his vote share from 8% to 14%.

“My community came out as good as we could possibly come out,” said state Rep. Danilo Burgos, the Democratic ward leader there. “Obviously, there’s room for improvement.”

📈 Republicans, everywhere: Republicans across Pennsylvania were still celebrating their top-of-the-ticket and down-ballot successes into Thursday, following Trump’s decisive win in the key battleground state. Trump helped carry down-ballot Republican wins in Pennsylvania, including all three statewide row offices, two additional U.S. House seats, a GOP-controlled state Senate, and a U.S. Senate seat. He even cracked 20% of Philadelphia’s vote citywide and is on track to create the lowest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in more than two decades. Republicans across the Grand Old Party were excited about Trump’s continued dominance in the state, after national polls found Trump and Harris in a dead heat until Election Day. And in addition to their many electoral victories, they could also toast to their party closing the Democratic voter registration advantage for the first time since 2020.

📉 Democrats in Philly and Bucks County: In order to win, Harris needed to increase her margins in Philadelphia’s collar counties and gain strong Democratic turnout in the city itself. She accomplished neither. In Bucks County, the last purple county in the region, Trump held a narrow lead on Thursday – before the county began tallying thousands provisional and overseas ballots. Where Harris needed votes the most, she lost them.

📉 Bob Casey: In a shocking upset, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. was unseated Thursday by his GOP challenger, Dave McCormick, according to the Associated Press. McCormick had already declared victory in the impossibly close race by the time the call was made. But Casey, the three-term Democratic incumbent, had not conceded – and a recount is still possible, given the close margins. Still, for Casey, whose father was governor, and who has won six statewide elections often by significant margins, this could be the end of the line for an enduring brand in Pennsylvania politics.

🗳️ Despite most races already being called by the Associated Press, ballots are still being counted across Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania Department of State on Thursday estimated that at least 100,000 ballots — including provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots and Election Day votes — hadn’t yet been tabulated across the commonwealth.

🤏 And though the U.S. Senate race between Casey and McCormick remains within the margin of a recount, it will not be clear until next week if that will take place. The secretary of state must call a recount by Thursday if the race remains within half a percent. And Casey has until noon on Wednesday to ask that a recount doesn’t take place.

➡️ Trump’s transition into the White House. His team says his new administration won’t look much like his first one.

➡️ The 2028 election cycle – yes, really – where Gov. Josh Shapiro is a likely front-runner.

That’s a wrap on this election, but it’s not the last you’ll hear from us. We’ll be back in your inbox with one final update next Friday. Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you then. 👋