Your Pennsylvania primary election cheat sheet

A version of this article first appeared in The Inquirer’s Election Newsletter. Sign up to get PA 2022 delivered right to your inbox.

Tomorrow, we’ll get answers.

After all the politicking, strategizing, and speculating, we’ll finally find out late Tuesday which candidates, campaigns, and messages succeeded — and which fell short.

But it won’t be just about the winners and losers. The results will tell us a lot about where the Democratic and Republican Parties are heading after the upheaval of the Trump presidency.

That’s especially true in Pennsylvania, because neither the Senate nor gubernatorial races have incumbents — leaving voters in both parties to choose new faces.

So what could we glean from the results?

We know former President Donald Trump still has significant influence over the GOP — almost all the party’s major candidates for governor and Senate have tried to cloak themselves in his red-hatted image.

But how much can he personally sway voters?

Trump endorsed celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz in the competitive Senate primary, and rallied for him earlier this month in Greensburg, putting his weight into powering the man popularly known as “Dr. Oz” over the finish line.

Trump injected himself into the race again as Kathy Barnette surged into contention with Oz and David McCormick. Trump cautioned voters from backing Barnette, wary of whether she could win a general election. But Trump also said he saw great things in Barnette’s future in an odd hybrid criticism/compliment that Barnette later described as “favorable.”

» READ MORE: Oz, Barnette, McCormick scramble across Pa. ahead of an extremely close primary

The race is still so close, and Oz has already absorbed a lot of damage from McCormick over the airwaves.

The outcome may show if Trump can nullify those attacks and energize GOP voters.

The former president, seeing one candidate in jeopardy, hopped onto what looks like a more likely winner early Saturday, endorsing GOP gubernatorial front-runner Doug Mastriano, a far-right state senator from Franklin County who has been a leading figure in trying to deny the lawful result of the 2020 presidential election. Trump looks likely to win that bet, but if so, it won’t be because of his endorsement.

Mastriano was leading for months.

But Trump didn’t just pick who he wants to win — he also actively chose who he wants most to lose. (Trump has always been most effective politically in tearing people down.)

Trump put a MAGA smackdown last week on McCormick. And a week before he endorsed Mastriano, he dished out an anti-endorsement to another GOP gubernatorial candidate, Bill McSwain, calling the former U.S. attorney a “coward.”

The rejections hit even harder because both men openly sought Trump’s favor.

But both McCormick and McSwain have dominated spending in their respective races, and if they survive Trump’s wrath to win, it might suggest that the former president’s grip is weakening. Or maybe just that money really is that powerful.

In the biggest races in recent years, Democrats have usually gone for the conventional, establishment pick — think Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania’s 2016 Senate race.

There’s a chance this year’s Senate primary changes that. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, whose public image is synonymous with the Rust Belt and hoodies, has few friends in the party establishment. But he’s widely expected to win the nomination — despite opposition from another Democrat who fits the usual, center-left Pa. approach in Congressman Conor Lamb.

» READ MORE: John Fetterman doesn’t just have supporters — he has fans. His celebrity could make him a senator.

If Fetterman wins and faces either Oz or McCormick, Democrats might get a chance this time to play the populist angle against an ultra-rich guy who has long run with the coastal elite. (Fetterman’s own Harvard pedigree usually gets lost beneath the tattoos and goatee.)

But if Lamb pulls off a shocker, it would signal the strength of the mainstream’s gravitational field.

How well State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta does is also something we’ll be looking for. After running a strong campaign with skim resources, even a strong third-place finish could spell good things for his political future.

» READ MORE: John Fetterman suffered a stroke just days before Pa. Senate primary but says he’s recovering well

Oz, McCormick, and McSwain have dominated TV with the help of either their own fortunes or super-wealthy friends (must be nice!).

But none have been able to break away.

Instead, McSwain in most polls has trailed State Sen. Doug Mastriano and former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, who both have a lot less campaign cash but have each tapped into the MAGA attitude shaped by Trump.

» READ MORE: Get to know the 2022 candidates for Pa. Senate and governor

It’s a similar story in the Senate race, where Barnette has made up for a dearth of money with a relentless schedule, and a similar ability to tap into the populist (and sometimes conspiracy-driven) vein running through the GOP.

As she rose in the polls, primetime media appearances followed, and she became the story of the final days of the Pennsylvania primary, finally competing with Oz and McCormick on the airwaves — gratis.

If Mastriano or Barnette wins, it would be evidence that money can’t buy everything.

It’s conventional wisdom — and surveys support the idea ± that voters are fatigued by politics in general, and that Democrats in particular are unmotivated this year. Does that play out at the polls? Or does the recent Supreme Court leak showing the justices are poised to strike down the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling inspire progressive turnout?

And for all we’ve been writing about the candidates over the last few months, a lot of voters are just tuning in now. Who gets a bump just by virtue of where they live? And in races as crowded as the GOP primary for governor, how many votes does it take to win?