Police commissioner Danielle Outlaw has unwittingly become a ‘political football.’ The mayor’s race could decide her future.

Philadelphia’s mayoral candidates have faced repeated questions in recent months about the fate of one city employee: Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw.

Their answers have ranged from tepid support to accusations that Outlaw has “done a bad job” amid a gun violence crisis. Most have offered noncommittal responses on whether they’d stick with her if elected.

But if history is a guide, the next mayor is likely to pick a new top cop — a decision that would shake up one of the nation’s largest police forces and influence how its 6,000 officers and employees engage with city residents.

The last two mayors to be sworn into office have appointed new commissioners. And such turnover has also been common in other big cities: In Chicago last month, the police chief resigned the day after the mayor’s reelection bid fell apart. And New York City Mayor Eric Adams hired his own chief last year — and even considered Outlaw for the role.

Outlaw, who was appointed in 2020, has been out recently while recovering from a car accident. In an emailed statement, she said: “I do not think anyone particularly enjoys having their name positioned as a political football.”

While noting that ethics rules bar her from speaking to candidates about their plans, she said she’s focused on issues including crime prevention, improving clearance rates, and implementing policy reforms.

“Such personnel decisions should not be like swiping left or right on a dating app,” she added. “Cutting it down to a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ response without all of the information is doing a disservice to all who live, work, and play in our great city.”

Within the Police Department and political circles, speculation is already rampant about potential replacements. Some are eager to see the return of Kevin Bethel, a former deputy commissioner and current head of school safety for the Philadelphia School District. Others have pointed to a host of internal candidates, including First Deputy Commissioner John Stanford, who recently handled the department’s budget hearing in Outlaw’s absence.

Bethel said he loves his current position and is focused on serving the district. Stanford did not respond to a request for comment.

George R. Burrell, a former City Council member, said candidates are right to avoid taking a position on Outlaw. He believes she deserves “the chance to explain what she’s learned” in her three years on the job.

“She was in over her head, and this is normal,” he said. “She came into a city where she had no history, no relationships, and didn’t have any time to get acclimated before COVID hit.”

The last time a Philadelphia commissioner faced the end of a mayoral administration was 2015. And the top cop himself at the time, Charles H. Ramsey, said: “A new mayor ought to pick his own police commissioner.” He retired alongside departing Mayor Michael Nutter.

That’s been the pattern in Philadelphia.

Ramsey was appointed in 2008 after a national search by Nutter, who’d made crime-fighting a central pillar of his campaign.

Mayor Jim Kenney then appointed Ramsey’s right-hand man, Richard Ross, a longtime deputy commissioner.

The last mayor to hold on to the incumbent commissioner was John Street, who retained John Timoney upon being sworn in in 2000. And even that decision seemed to involve some pressure: For months on the campaign trail, Street declined to endorse Timoney. But he relented during a televised debate after Republican challenger Sam Katz hounded him on the issue.

“I’ll reappoint Timoney,” Street said. “Does that make you happy?”

Outlaw took office in February 2020 after a monthslong interview process. Kenney had been seeking a permanent replacement for Ross, who’d resigned the previous summer amid accusations that he’d retaliated against a woman with whom he’d had an affair.

Kenney made clear he wanted someone who could address longstanding complaints of racial and sexual discrimination within the force. And he made history by naming Outlaw — an Oakland native and the chief in Portland, Ore. — the first Black woman to lead the department.

Outlaw found herself facing crises within weeks of joining the department. First, Cpl. James O’Connor IV was fatally shot while serving a warrant. Days later, the city shut down due to COVID, forcing Outlaw to make unprecedented choices about how and when officers should engage with residents.

The department was later widely criticized for its response to racial justice protests over the murder of George Floyd. Officers tear-gassed residents and protesters, detained journalists, and seemed unprepared for large and, at times, unruly crowds. Two officers were later criminally charged with assault.

The city went on to spend nearly $10 million to settle a host of lawsuits over the department’s actions at the protests.

Then, in the summer of 2020, gun violence began surging to levels unmatched in city history.

In three years — from 2020 to 2022 — nearly 1,600 people were killed in homicides, and another 5,400 people were wounded in shootings. The annual pace of gunfire was the highest in at least 60 years, and Kenney’s administration was frequently criticized as lacking urgency.

Meanwhile, police recruitment and retention plummeted, leaving the department hundreds of officers short of its target staffing. And hundreds of officers still on the books were out on injury claims — about 14% of all patrol cops at one point, an Inquirer investigation found.

Many of those trends were not unique to Philadelphia over that span. And after the City Controller’s Office, then led by current mayoral candidate Rebecca Rhynhart, issued a report in 2021 criticizing the department’s response to the racial justice protests, Outlaw forcefully defended her leadership during a news conference.

“Am I enough? Absolutely, and some,” she said. “Do I deserve to be here? Absolutely, and some. Did I lead this department in the last year? Absolutely, and some. No police commissioner, chief, superintendent has ever had to deal with what we’ve dealt with in the past year.”

The winner of the Democratic primary will likely win in November, giving the presumptive future mayor more than seven months to shape an administration and search for a police commissioner.

If the choice is to move on from Outlaw, a key consideration will be whether to make an internal or external hire. Most of the top candidates have said they would interview both outsiders and applicants from within the department.

Helen Gym, a former City Council member, said during a televised debate last week that she would launch a search for her police commissioner and that Outlaw could apply.

“The mayor retains the right to be able to decide their next police commissioner,” Gym said. “Mine will be dedicated to being on the ground, to being visible within communities.”

Rhynhart and former City Councilmember Cherelle Parker have both said they won’t make personnel decisions while campaigning. Rhynhart — who as City Controller released two audits deeply critical of Outlaw’s department — said in an interview that she’s looking for a commissioner who “has the strength to make serious changes.”

Mustafa Rashed, a political communications strategist, said mayoral candidates shouldn’t take a position on whether to retain Outlaw, who will likely have at least seven more months to lead the force.

“The first African American woman police commissioner in the city of Philadelphia,” he said, “and to go after her and pre-dispose what you’re going to do, with a good amount of time left [in this administration], it just seems like bad leadership.”

Allan Domb, a former City Council member and real estate magnate, is the only top candidate to say he would not replace Outlaw. He has been critical of Kenney’s leadership and said that Outlaw could be effective if better supported by City Hall.

Outlaw, for her part, said she hopes the next mayor “takes a thorough and thoughtful approach for all positions of great importance, including mine.”

Whether she stays or goes, the choice is likely to become a defining part of the mayor’s legacy.

“Whoever comes in will be in an environment that’s understaffed, with 500 homicides a year, and fighting with the union,” Burrell said. “It’s a crisis around public safety they’ll have to address.”