Democrats hope abortion can help them keep hold of suburban voters; Republicans say it’s still all about inflation

Days after the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to abortion, Rep. Susan Wild went to a rally in Easton, where a woman held an 8-month-old. She lamented that the child “had more rights eight months ago than she does now,” Wild recalled.

Since then, she said abortion and the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade has come up even more than she expected, and from all types of voters in her Lehigh Valley congressional district, one of the most competitive in the country.

“The most notable thing about it is the wide range of age from young to old as well as gender, males and females, that are talking to me about it and are outraged about it,” Wild, a Democrat, said in an interview. “People are seeing this as the deprivation of a right that has long been established in our country.”

Members of both parties agree the driving issues in this year’s critical Pennsylvania elections remain unchanged after the court ruling: inflation and President Joe Biden’s miserable approval ratings. Gas and grocery costs provide regular reminders of how voters’ daily lives are affected.

But in some specific areas, Democrats think abortion might be a difference-maker.

In moderate, suburban regions, where congressional incumbents like Wild are among the most vulnerable, Democrats running in critical races for governor and Congress are trying to use the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision as an illustration of the stakes in November’s elections, and an example of what they say is Republican extremism. They hope the end of Roe reminds wavering swing voters, especially women, why they have shifted away from the GOP in recent years.

“It may be enough to save some incumbent Democrats from defeat,” said Charlie Dent, a Republican who once represented the same district as Wild, and who was one of the few GOP House members who supported abortion rights. “If I’m a Republican candidate, I would be concerned if I were in a competitive district. I would be very concerned about it.”

Many of Pennsylvania’s key races could come down to a few percentage points, and Democrats are pressing the issue in battleground congressional districts outside Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Allentown.

Wild and Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, of Chester County, have sent out repeated statements and fund-raising appeals centered on abortion rights. So have the Democratic nominees for governor, Attorney General Josh Shapiro, and U.S. Senate, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. Their races could have drastic impacts on abortion law in Pennsylvania and in Congress.

» READ MORE: Where Pa.’s 2022 candidates for governor and Senate stand on abortion

“This is a huge blow. But we can’t give in — now is the time to dig deep and fight,” read a Houlahan fund-raising email a day after the court ruling.

Ashley Ehasz, the Democrat hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in a Bucks County-based district, has pressed the topic in another of the region’s most politically balanced districts.

Republicans in the suburbs and competitive races have treaded carefully, signaling concern around the issue in a year when the GOP has much in its favor.

When the ruling came down, swing-district Republicans generally said little, if anything, publicly about a generational victory for conservatives. When asked by reporters for their responses, their comments have usually been muted.

“In our community, and across America, the vast and overwhelming majority do not support rigid, single-party, all-or-nothing solutions,” Fitzpatrick said in a statement when asked for a reaction.

He said he supports a bill that would ban abortion nationwide after 20 weeks, with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, and to save the life of the mother.

In response to a question, Houlahan’s Republican opponent, Guy Ciarrocchi, said in a statement, “We need to ignore the noise and focus on what comes next,” arguing that each state should come up with its own solution. He called for banning “late-term” abortion, though he didn’t say exactly when that would begin, and his campaign said he supports the ban on taxpayer funding for most abortions.

Even though GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano called abortion restrictions his “No. 1 issue” during an April primary debate, and has pushed for severe new limits in Pennsylvania — including a no-exceptions ban after about six weeks of pregnancy, before many know they are pregnant — he tried to turn attention elsewhere once Roe was overturned.

“Pennsylvanians will not be distracted by the hysterics of the left as they exploit this ruling to try to fulfill their far-left agenda,” he said in a statement, calling for a focus on inflation and high gas and grocery prices.

Republicans argue that such economic issues are the ones that still overwhelmingly matter to voters, and that Democrats are desperate to change the subject. They say voters motivated by the ruling were almost certainly already voting for Democrats anyway.

“Abortion isn’t the winning issue Democrats think it is,” said Samantha Bullock, a spokesperson for Republicans’ national campaign arm.

Voters ranked inflation, gas prices, the economy, and everyday bills as their top four concerns in a late June poll by Monmouth University. Abortion ranked fifth, with 5% naming it their top issue.

Even Democrats who have emphasized the importance of the abortion debate say economic concerns remain the overriding electoral topic. They argue, though, that a segment of key voters could be motivated by the Dobbs decision.

Democrats won districts like Houlahan’s and Wild’s in 2018, and the presidency in 2020, thanks in large part to swings from white, college-educated women, said Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster who has worked on Pennsylvania races. “And this is one of their most important issues,” she said.

Some 61% of American adults believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, according to an early June poll from the Pew Research Center, before the high court ruling, and a similar number disagreed with the decision, more recent polls from Pew and Monmouth University found.

“Republicans don’t want to talk about something that they’ve been working for for 50 years,” said James Singer, a spokesperson for Democrats’ national congressional campaign arm. “They’re defensive about it, and that says something.”

More broadly, Democrats argue the court decision fits into a bigger picture of Republicans run amok — including the revelations coming from the hearings into the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, former President Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and Mastriano’s far-right position atop Pennsylvania’s ticket.

Greenberg said support for strict abortion bans are “a proof point for somebody being out of step.”

Democrats have aggressively sought out past statements from Republicans to try to portray them as hardliners. They’ve noted, for example, that Ciarriocchi worked as a lobbyist for the Archdiocese of Philadelphia in the late 1990s and early 2000s. And they’ve pointed to comments from Wild’s opponent, Lisa Scheller, who during an April primary debate said she’s open to a federal so-called heartbeat bill. Those bans typically take effect in the first six weeks of pregnancy, when cardiac activity (though not an actual heartbeat) can be detected, but before most know they are pregnant.

Scheller also said that she’d oppose a constitutional amendment that would ban abortion and that she would allow exceptions to abortion restrictions in cases of rape or incest or to save the mother’s life.

Shapiro and Fetterman are also pressing the issue as they try to stoke left-leaning voters who may be disheartened. It’s one of the most stark and consequential contrasts in the governor’s race, which could decide whether the next state leader signs or vetoes new restrictions.

Abortion is also a clear dividing line in the Senate race between Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz in a contest that could decide control of that chamber, and therefore the course of the abortion debate there. Planned Parenthood’s political arm last week launched a $3 million television ad campaign blasting Oz for opposing abortion rights.

Republicans have tried to flip the issue by painting Democrats as the extremists, daring them to say what limits, if any, they would place on abortion.

» READ MORE: Supreme Court’s abortion ruling puts spotlight on Pa. governor and state legislative races

When asked about that issue, Wild said: “The government doesn’t belong in your doctor’s office.”

With Roe overturned, though, Democrats say the real questions are now facing Republicans as voters see not theoretical arguments, but a new reality — near-total bans on abortion for millions living in conservative states.

The restrictions could soon reach additional states, including Pennsylvania, if Mastriano wins. Democrats are trying to hammer that home as they fight the political tide.