Why Democrats think abortion will help them win Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s seat, even though it wasn’t enough last time

As a few dozen people gathered in a Perkasie park Monday, Jane Cramer recalled the “gut punch” two years ago that came when the U.S. Supreme Court stripped away the constitutional right to an abortion.

“I do hope it really motivates people because it’s such a personal, core thing,” said Cramer, a committeeperson with the Pennridge Democrats who organized the rally for Bucks County voters to hear from Democratic candidates who support abortion rights.

The final speaker at the rally was Ashley Ehasz, a Democrat running to oust four-term Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick from his Bucks County-based seat. She spoke in front of lawn signs declaring the incumbent to be anti-choice.

Ehasz, an army veteran who lost to Fitzpatrick in 2022, is making abortion a focus of her rematch against the Republican. But it may be an uphill battle in a purple district that has voted for Fitzpatrick while supporting Democrats for president and other offices, even as Democrats won up and down the ballot in 2022, riding a wave of abortion rights activism. But the party’s ability to continue winning on abortion will be tested in this year’s congressional and presidential races.

Last cycle, Ehasz also made abortion a key issue and lost to Fitzpatrick by nearly 10 points.

Ehasz and her allies are convinced that this year is different. They argue that abortion has become a more salient issue in the last two years. And they’re expecting more funding to amplify the messaging.

Fitzpatrick enjoys broad popularity in the First District and is the only Republican representing the Philadelphia area in Congress, after other seats have flipped in recent years. He has successfully cultivated an image as a moderate on abortion and other issues.

In a statement, Fitzpatrick’s campaign dismissed the Democrats’ messaging as false and pointed to votes he’s made in favor of reproductive rights.

“Ashley Ehasz’s repeated lies and fear-mongering will get her exactly where it got her in her failed 2022 campaign: with an embarrassing landslide electoral defeat,” the statement said.

As she travels the district, Ehasz said, abortion is often the issue voters cite as their most important concern. Abortion is legal in Pennsylvania through 23 weeks of pregnancy, but Ehasz said voters are watching restrictive policies be enacted in other states and are afraid.

Her campaign is leaning on the same message it used in 2022: framing Fitzpatrick as more anti-abortion than voters realize by pointing to votes he’s taken in favor of a 20-week abortion ban, against legislation that would have codified Roe v. Wade, and, more recently, in favor of defense budgets that blocked the military from paying for female service members to travel to obtain abortions.

According to internal polling conducted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Ehasz takes the lead against Fitzpatrick once voters are told that Fitzpatrick is anti-abortion. The memo argues that Fitzpatrick overperforms among women and college-educated voters but that messaging about abortion changes those dynamics.

However, it tested no other issue messaging on which Fitzpatrick might run.

Olivia Cappello, a spokeswoman for the Planned Parenthood PAC, said she anticipated that the organization would spend heavily in Pennsylvania, including against Fitzpatrick.

“Our overarching message in Pennsylvania really stays the same across these races,” Cappello said. “It’s that Pennsylvanians need leaders who are going to stand up for their rights to decide what’s best for their own bodies.”

Steve Medvic, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College, said Ehasz faces a steep climb.

Medvic said there’s no evidence in polling that abortion is a more salient issue than it was in 2022, though voters’ approach to the issue has become less visceral and more tied to state-level changes to reproductive health care.

Fitzpatrick, he said, has succeeded by separating himself from the national narrative. Ehasz will need to chip away at the incumbent’s bipartisan, moderate reputation.

“That’s a pretty heavy lift,” Medvic said. “You have to convince people that what they’ve known for several years, that’s just not true.”

Jeffrey Gilmore, chair of the New Britain Republican Party and Fitzpatrick’s brother-in-law, said the congressman has earned respect across the district that won’t erode easily.

“He is a people person. He gets out into the community quite frequently,” Gilmore said. “He’s not afraid to go anywhere and talk to people.”

Funding appears to be the biggest change between the 2022 cycle and the rematch. By April, Ehasz had already raised more than $1.3 million compared with $970,543 in the entirety of her 2022 campaign.

And Democrats are expecting that number to grow after the DCCC placed the district on a list of key races to flip in 2024.

“Those who might not have the information, we will have the resources this time to make sure it is heard,” she said.

Fitzpatrick has remained relatively quiet on the abortion issue. In a statement following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, he highlighted a need for “bipartisan consensus that both respects a woman’s privacy and autonomy, and the sanctity of human life.”

In a statement this week, Fitzpatrick’s campaign said he supports Pennsylvania’s current abortion law. The campaign also cited Fitzpatrick’s votes to protect access to contraception and in vitro fertilization as well as a vote for a bill that sought to protect the right to cross state lines for an abortion. The campaign did not respond to questions about his votes against legislation that sought to codify Roe v. Wade into federal law.

Some of Fitzpatrick’s votes have angered antiabortion groups, and he has a “C” rating on his voting record from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America; only two other Republicans are rated below “B.”

“Brian is not going to make abortion an issue with his campaign,” Gilmore said. “He will simply tell you it’s a state issue and not a federal issue.”

But Republicans in Bucks County have shown some concern about their vulnerability on the issue.

At a rally for Senate candidate Dave McCormick earlier this month, Ted Harrison, a Bucks County voter, spoke up to urge Republican candidates to stop talking about the issue.

“I’m sure there are a small percentage where that’s a primary issue,” he said, “and that can impact the election.”