Bucks County is now the only Republican majority county in the area. What does that mean for November?

The Bucks County Republican Party celebrated a turning point Monday.

For the first time in a decade and a half, Republicans outpaced Democrats in voter registration in the key purple county, and Bucks County became the only Republican-majority county in the Philadelphia area.

The county party enthusiastically celebrated the win on social media, and National Republican Congressional Committee touted the change as proof that GOP messaging was working.

But the reality is more complicated. Voter registration lags behind voting behavior, meaning that people who made the switch to the Republican Party were likely already voting for Republican candidates. And even the local GOP leader cast doubt on how meaningful the shift would be when voters go to the polls

“It’s a morale booster, it’s something we’ve been targeting for years,” county GOP chair Pat Poprik said. Though she felt the change may boost GOP turnout, she didn’t put too much stock in the figure as a prediction for November.

The shift does, however, underscore that Bucks County is very divided, and will be an essential battleground in this year’s presidential election. Former President Donald Trump lost the county in 2016 and 2020, but by narrower margins than in Philadelphia’s other collar counties. And the county has gone red in down-ballot races.

Voters have kept Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in office while voting for Democrats in statewide races. And Democrats seized control of county government in 2019, were swept by Republicans in 2021, then won again last year.

The county is certain to once again draw national attention and become a key area for both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in the coming months.

The exact reason for the shift in voter registration can vary. Presidential election years tend to have an increase in voter registrations

Last week, Department of State data showed that Democrats held a 112-voter lead over Republicans on registration in the county. On Monday, Republicans had a 264-voter lead as a result of both new Republican voters and fewer Democratic voters. Meanwhile, the number of unaffiliated voters in Bucks County had also grown.

“This has been a competitive county for years, and whether the Democrats have a small advantage in registration or the Republicans do, it’s still going to be a competitive place,” said Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College.

Poprik said Bucks County Republicans had been urging voters to turn out in November and change their party affiliation.

“So many people are so unhappy with the Democratic policies and performance,” Poprik said, noting that she’s had people walk into the GOP office asking how to change their registration.

Republican registrations saw a particular surge last week, which Poprik attributes primarily to the Republican National Convention. However, registration data tends to lag behind major events because of the time it takes for counties to process that data — so it’s unclear whether this is any correlation to the recent events in this year’s presidential race.

Bucks County Democratic Party Chair State Sen. Steve Santarsiero, on the other hand, predicted the registration lead would flip back again as Democrats capitalize on a growing energy in the party following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race this week. Bucks County Democrats, he said, have their own voter registration activities planned.

“I think within the next few months, and certainly within the year, you’re going to see a change,” he said.

But Republicans in the county had been narrowing Democrats’ edge for years, and that hasn’t always corresponded to a change in election outcomes.

Registration numbers are unlikely to be a clear signal of who will win an election in November, especially because registration tends to lag behind voting behavior.

“If I were they, I would not be celebrating because they still keep losing elections,” Santarsiero said.

Bucks County, referred to by some as the “key to the keystone” is a consistently hotly contested area.

“I think that there are more traditional Republican voters who may have, or at least in the past had, less comfort with the kind of politics that say a President Trump practices,” Yost said, noting that concern about losing voter in places like Bucks County may have been a motivating factor as Democrats pressured Biden to end his reelection campaign.

Bucks County voters are known for ticket splitting, or voting for both Republican and Democratic candidates on the same ballot. And the county’s more than 61,000 unaffiliated voters will also play a role in determining the outcome in November.

“I think that if you want to succeed,” Santarsiero said, “you really do have to speak to those folks.”