Fetterman will rally in Bucks on Sunday. The swing county may be more important than ever.

Election season is a busy time in Bucks County.

The perennial purple collar county is always a favorite destination for candidates running for office — for good political reason. It’s become a critical county for Republicans running statewide. And Democrats this year hope to reverse big losses.

“We’re kind of like a microcosm of the rest of the state,” said GOP chair Pat Poprik. “We have really conservative, really liberal, and moderates, so the way we go is kinda the way the rest of the state goes.”

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is holding his first rally there Sunday. He’ll stump at an outdoor baseball field in Bristol after a rally in York County Saturday. His stop follows repeat visits from Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro and both Republicans running statewide, state Sen. Doug Mastriano and Mehmet Oz.

Bucks will be a test of Fetterman’s working-class appeal in a region known as pro-union, with a mix of midsize townships, smaller boroughs, and large swaths of farmland.

It’s also a county that has shifted more Democratic at the top of the ballot while continuing to elect Republicans farther down, as nearby suburban counties have gotten bluer from top to bottom. In 2021, Republicans swept the county row office elections, reverting from Democratic gains there in 2017. While turnout was high for both parties, it was supercharged for the GOP, which won most countywide races by about five points.

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In 2020, while Biden won the county, tens of thousands of people voted for both Biden and Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents part of Bucks, delivering Fitzpatrick a resounding 13-point win over the Democratic challenger. Republicans also swept all five competitive state House races in Bucks, helping the party maintain its majority in Harrisburg.

And what both parties can pull out of Bucks County matters because it’s home to so many voters, as well as areas, particularly in the center of the county, that are continuing to grow. The county helped fuel Biden’s 81,000-vote victory, beating Hillary Clinton’s margin in Bucks by 14,600 votes. Only Montgomery, Allegheny, Chester, and Delaware Counties gave Biden bigger margins compared with Clinton’s share of the vote in 2016, when Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes.

Democratic strategist Dan McCormick, who does a lot of work in Bucks County, said he thinks the environment will be better for Democrats because a Supreme Court ruling overturned Roe v. Wade. Democratic women in Bucks County have out-registered total Republicans by a margin of 2-1 from May to September. There were about 202,000 Democrats and 195,000 Republicans registered in the county in September. Close to 80,000 voters registered unaffiliated or with a third party.

McCormick thinks Fetterman could appeal across parties, particularly with split-ticket voters who backed Biden, as well as Fitzpatrick, in 2020.

“People make their own homemade Fetterman signs up here. Folks who might not traditionally be Democratic voters, or soft Republicans, are moving in Fetterman’s direction,” McCormick said.

But Poprik thinks the GOP success will continue.

“It’s definitely carrying over,” she said. “I see it in the comments people make at the doors. People are so unhappy with what’s happening at the national level, with their gas prices, their food prices, immigration. Biden is like the gift that keeps on giving.”

She thinks Oz, who won Bucks by about 4,000 votes in the primary, can get a big showing there again.

“I’m seeing Republicans who wanted another candidate, the more they see of this man, the real person he is, they like him,” she said.

She thinks it’s “late in the game,” for Fetterman to be stopping in the fourth largest county in the state.

“It’s a very important county to win,” she said. “The work [the GOP does] here helps offset what happens in Philly and other places. We’re like a buffer. ... And I think Bucks County voters know it and they respect that job, because they know it’s their job to come out.”

Oz rallied in Newtown Township in early September to a crowd of 1,200. He was introduced by Sen. John Kennedy (R., La.), who took aim at Fetterman. “Dr. Oz wears pants,” Kennedy said, mocking the Democrat’s dedication to wearing shorts at all times.

For Fetterman, the rally continues a string of appearances in big population centers as the election draws nearer. Fetterman had prioritized visits to smaller, rural counties early in the election but has, in the last month, made stops in Montgomery County, Philadelphia, and the Lehigh Valley. He’s also ramped up his schedule, often doing two rallies a day on either a Saturday or Sunday.