The Philadelphia mayor’s race is essentially a five-way tie, poll shows
Philly mayoral candidates Rebecca Rhynhart, Cherelle Parker, Helen Gym, Allan Domb, and Jeff Brown are neck and neck less than three weeks before election day.
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It’s all tied up.
With 18 days to go until the Democratic mayoral primary, the first nonpartisan public poll of the race shows a toss-up between the top five contenders.
The survey of likely Democratic voters commissioned by the good government group the Committee of Seventy and several partners found that Rebecca Rhynhart (18%), Cherelle Parker (17%), Helen Gym (15%), Allan Domb (14%), and Jeff Brown (11%) led the pack.
The poll’s credibility interval, which is similar to a margin of error, was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. All five top contenders fell within that margin.
Many respondents — about 20% — said they were still making up their mind.
The poll is just one sampling of voter attitudes about a complicated and crowded mayoral field ahead of the May 16 Democratic primary. The victor will be well-positioned to win in November, given Philadelphia’s heavily Democratic electorate.
Nine Democrats are seeking the nomination. State Rep. Amen Brown, pastor Warren Bloom Sr., and retired Judge James DeLeon each garnered support from about 2% of respondents.
Primaries are notoriously difficult to poll, especially in off-year elections, given the smaller number of people who vote and the higher propensity of primary voters to change their mind than in a general election.
Lauren Cristella, Committee of Seventy’s interim president, said the poll provides “a snapshot of a moment in time” and said more independent polling is needed. She encouraged voters to watch mayoral forums and learn as much as they can about the candidates.
”It’s anyone’s race,” she said. “It’s going to come down to who can motivate these different voting blocs and turn out. It’s going to come down to every vote.”
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The poll showed Jeff Brown, a grocer who was considered an early front-runner, may have lost some ground with voters since February, when his campaign released an internal poll showing him leading the pack. But he was far from out of the race and remained within striking distance of the four other top contenders.
Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, reviewed the poll results and said it shows a tight race. He said the seven-point gap between Rhynhart in first and Jeff Brown in fifth means there is a higher probability that Rhynhart leads.
But all five are competitive, he said.
“No one should be strategically saying that it looks like it’s a two- or three-person race based on this poll,” Borick said.
With more than two weeks until election day, a lot of money remains to be spent on the race — money that could sway voters through advertisements, mailers, TV commercials, and door-knocking operations.
Right now, the race appears close. Candidates’ internal polls and those commissioned by partisan outside groups have also showed a largely even split, with about 20% of voters undecided.
Earlier this week, Parker’s campaign released the results of a poll showing her leading the field at 20%, followed by Gym, Rhynhart, Brown, then Domb, all within nine percentage points of one another. More than 1 in 5 respondents were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5, the union that represents Philadelphia police officers, also commissioned a poll this month. Its results, which were obtained by The Inquirer, showed Parker leading at 21%, followed by Domb (15%), Rhynhart (14%) and Gym (12%). Jeff Brown — whom the FOP has endorsed — was at 4%. More than 30% of respondents were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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Other findings from Seventy’s poll
The Committee of Seventy poll also asked respondents to rank the candidates and then ran a simulation to see who would win in a ranked-choice-voting scenario where the lowest vote-getters got knocked out round by round if one candidate didn’t win a majority outright. In that simulation, Rhynhart beat Parker in the final round.
Rhynhart slightly led with white voters, men, and higher-income voters. She had considerable support among respondents in Center City and the youngest voters.
Parker had strong support among Latino respondents (31%, twice that of any other candidate) and performed well among respondents in the Northwest part of the city, where she is a ward leader. She led among surveyed Black voters, garnering 25% — 10 points ahead of Jeff Brown. Parker also led all candidates among 50-to-64 year-old respondents.
Gym led (40%) with respondents who described themselves as “very liberal.” She was also ahead among the 9% of surveyed voters who said they had already voted by mail. Twenty percent of those respondents said they backed Gym.
Domb slightly led Parker among conservative and moderate Democrats surveyed, and has a significant advantage in Northeast Philadelphia. He also led among respondents with high-school diplomas.
Jeff Brown had outsized support from the oldest voters of those polled, conservative Democrats, and those with high school educations, as well as respondents who have attended some college. Of early voters in the survey, 17% said they’d already voted for Brown.
Respondents who were undecided skewed female — nearly two-thirds of people who said they were still making up their minds were women. Nearly half were Black.
SurveyUSA conducted the poll April 21-25 of 1,013 likely Philadelphia voters via phone and text. Respondents were weighted to U.S. census targets for gender, age, race, and home ownership.
The poll was done in partnership with FairVote, which advocates for ranked-choice voting. The nonprofit Urban Affairs Coalition, the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia, and the Philadelphia Citizen were also partners.