College students could have big sway in this election. Here’s how Philly-area campuses are turning out.

At West Chester University earlier this month, students held “Bake a Better Tomorrow,” an event to encourage classmates to register to vote, while handing out cookies.

Clipboards in hand, others walked the campus pavements, asking passersby if they were registered.

That same week, students from the College Democrats club on campus gathered for a watch party as their candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, took on former President Donald Trump. And in a classroom on campaigns and elections — predebate — every student raised their hand when asked if they were registered to vote and planned to tune in that night. Their political science professor, John Kennedy, underscored its importance.

“Whoever wins Pennsylvania, there is a 90% chance [they] will be the next president,” Kennedy told them.

» READ MORE: Kamala Harris is performing better than Joe Biden with Philly voters, but there could be red flags

It’s not surprising that the halls of academia have become a prime stumping ground for candidates.

Like any single voting bloc, motivated young students on Pennsylvania’s dozens of college campuses could, in theory, decide the election — polls show a neck-and-neck race that could hinge on the Keystone State, which is considered a must-win, especially for Harris.

“Young people participating in Pennsylvania is really going to matter to the outcome,” said Jen McAndrew, senior director of communications at Tufts University’s Tisch College of Civic Life.

Pennsylvania ranks third behind Michigan and Wisconsin as the state where young people can most influence the results of this year’s presidential election, according to the group’s Youth Electoral Significance Index.

College students are going to the polls in increasing numbers. In 2020, 66% voted, an all-time high that almost matched the rate for all adults, McAndrew said. Their top issues this time are the economy, inflation, and cost of living; jobs; gun violence; climate change; and abortion, a Tufts preelection survey showed.

» READ MORE: Haverford College’s new polling place draws strong early turnout

Still, as recently as this spring, high numbers of young voters said they were not interested in the race, and among them, Trump was essentially tied with President Joe Biden. Some Republicans thought Trump’s relatively high support from young men could represent a paradigm shift after decades of Democratic strength with the group.

But Biden’s decision to drop out in July has changed the calculus. Harris is consistently polling better among young voters than Biden was, and she appears to be generating enthusiasm — more than 4 in 10 young people said recently they are more likely to vote in November because she’s in the race, according to a recent U.S. News-Generation Lab survey.

“Kamala Harris is particularly good at engaging young people through social media,” said West Chester student Jacob Moser, 21, a political science major from Manchester, York County, who leads the school’s College Democrats club. “I have definitely noticed once she became the presumptive nominee that people are so, so much more excited and engaged and ready for the election.”

Kennedy, the West Chester professor who serves as adviser to the College Democrats, said one day in early September he had received 20 requests from students to join, more than he remembers ever getting before in one day.

“The club has never been as active as it is right now,” he said.

On the other side, Moser’s counterpart, Gus Fadden, 21, a senior, from Frankford, Del., who leads the College Republicans club, said he also sees more excitement among young Republicans.

“People realize there’s an actual election on our hands now,” he said. “It’s not necessarily that Kamala Harris is so much better than Biden, but you recognize there’s an energy factor.”

He’s motivated.

“I’m looking forward to four years of Donald Trump and a carton of 18 eggs at the Giant that doesn’t cost $5.22,” he said.

Matthew Henon, a senior political science major from Philadelphia, said Harris’ entry into the race changed his mind. Before that, he was leaning toward Trump. He did not favor Biden because of his handling of Afghanistan, though Trump wasn’t great for veterans either, he said.

“I think she’s probably the best for veterans in general,” he said of Harris.

But Max Weschules, 21, a history major from Downingtown, said he remains firmly behind Trump, largely because of the way Biden and Harris have handled immigration — “at very best a Band-Aid on a gaping wound kind of thing.”

Moser said he looks forward to voting for Harris because of her extensive experience in law and as vice president, but also because of what she stands for.

“She wants to protect access to reproductive care,” he said. “She wants to take action on climate change. She is going to protect LGBTQ rights, all things that a lot of young people care a lot about, me included.”

Justin Duffie, 21, a supply chain business management major from Philadelphia, said he likes that Harris is a graduate of Howard University, a historically Black college.

“As a young man, I watched Barack Obama get elected and I told myself I could do anything,” the senior said. “So for this next generation of young girls coming up, my little sister included, I would say it’s amazing because now we get to look at somebody else who [could do] it again.”

At West Chester, 78% of students voted in 2020, Tufts’ McAndrew said, and 87% were registered. West Chester is among colleges in Pennsylvania that made their voting data public.

Kennedy, who has taught at West Chester since 1997, said the highest student interest in an election that he had ever seen was in 2008 when Obama and Hillary Clinton faced each other in the primary. But enthusiasm for this election seems to be higher, he said.

“There’s a general feeling that the stakes in this campaign overshadow anything we’ve seen in previous campaigns,” he said.

Berwood Yost, a pollster at Franklin and Marshall, said Biden was struggling with people under age 35, but those voters have moved toward Harris, “and it’s probably true that people under 25 have moved even more in her direction.” A recent Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll showed Harris faring 12 points better than Biden earlier this year among voters under 29.

Still, most polls show she isn’t performing much better with young voters than Biden was in 2020, and her margins with the group are smaller than previous Democratic presidential candidates.

And young voters are a historically fickle group. While they represent a significant portion of persuadable voters, they do not vote as reliably as older voters. That can be especially true on college campuses — many students fail to register at their school address or don’t register at all.

“It’s always the case that politicians look to those younger voters to provide the energy to their campaigns,” Yost said. “The hope is that if you can get them out, they’ll vote in a certain way and they’ll bring that energy and passion. But oftentimes, they don’t turn out at the same rates as older voters.”

At Haverford College on the Main Line, political science professor Zach Oberfield in partnership with local volunteers set up a voter registration booth inside the building where freshmen passed through during move-in.

Marielle Soluri, a first-year student from Lincoln, Mass., signed right up.

“I figure my vote will have more impact here, especially since Pennsylvania is a swing state,” said Soluri, who noted that access to health care for women is a major issue of concern for her.

Ella Salvador, 18, of Baltimore, had the same idea.

“This is a very big election,” she said. “I was definitely motivated to have my vote be in a swing state where I felt like it was making a difference.”

At Haverford, voting has been a high-profile issue. The college and neighbors successfully campaigned in 2018 to get a polling place on campus. In the 2020 election, 81% of students at Haverford, which also makes its data public, voted, McAndrew said. More than 90% were registered.

Thomas Belman, 19, a freshman from Minnesota, said he was glad to see the voter registration table.

“If I don’t do it now, I might not remember to do it later,” he said.

Kay Sweet, one of the volunteers, said nearly 200 students registered to vote during freshmen move-in and at two other campus events.

The campaigns are taking different approaches to wooing college-age voters. Harris’ campaign last month announced it’s ramping up its ground game on hundreds of college campuses in battleground states, including by doubling its staff, running targeted ads on social media, and increasing outreach at historically Black colleges.

Meanwhile, Trump has become something of a mainstay on the podcasting circuit and is regularly sitting for interviews with streamers and YouTube personalities who cater to Gen Z, especially men.

Some Democratic strategists say Harris could improve her margins among young voters if she appeared more frequently in those types of alternative media formats.

Rotimi Adeoye, a Philadelphia-based political commentator and a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Young Democrats, said the Harris campaign showed during the Democratic National Convention it could leverage the power of social media by inviting and catering to dozens of influencers. He said the campaign should “look at where young voters are getting their news from and make sure that she’s in those places.”

“A lot of young people are tired of hearing politicians selling things. People are skeptical of politicians, and rightfully so,” Adeoye said. “Candidates can’t just come out and have this general message that they think everyone is going to buy into. Harris needs to speak directly to young voters on issues they care about.”

Harrison Green, 20, a West Chester political science major from Blue Bell, proudly stated that he is friends with both Moser and Fadden, the heads of the Democratic and Republican clubs, who sat together with him for an interview with The Inquirer earlier this month. The conversation remained civil and friendly, so much so that Green asked if a West Chester staff member could take everyone’s picture standing together.

“I really hope that it remains this great positive vibe and everyone can be civil with each other,” Green said. “That is what will be great for America. Regardless how you feel about anything, if we can solve problems together, rather than being divided, that should be how we are moving forward.”