Five congressional races to watch that could flip the House and make history

With Election Day less than a week away, all eyes are on Pennsylvania. But it’s not only in the presidential race where the state’s swing voters are poised to influence partisan power on a national scale. And nearby in New Jersey and Delaware, voters will see history-making races on the ballot, too.

Moderate Democrats and right-wing Republicans are locked in competitive races for control of three of the state’s congressional districts. The fate of these races — the most competitive congressional matchups in the state — could help determine which party controls the U.S. House.

Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a staunch ally of former President Donald Trump, is trying to maintain his grasp on the 10th Congressional District, which includes parts of the Harrisburg suburbs that have been shifting blue. He’s facing his most serious challenge yet after he easily carried the Central Pennsylvania district in 2022.

In Northeastern Pennsylvania, U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright, a Democrat, is trying to hold onto his seat, which he’s had a narrow grasp on as his district has voted for Trump in the last two presidential races.

U.S. Rep. Susan Wild, a Democrat, is also fighting to hold onto a district she narrowly won in 2022. Wild’s Lehigh Valley district has proven politically fickle by voting for Democrat Barack Obama in 2012, then swinging to Trump in 2016, then to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated all three of these races as toss-ups, and all are on the Democratic and Republican congressional committees’ priority lists to flip.

Meanwhile, one district in nearby Delaware and another in New Jersey aren’t as competitive but are worth watching to witness history in real time.

As he seeks a seventh term, Perry, 62, is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Janelle Stelson, 64, in the 10th Congressional District, which includes Dauphin County and parts of Cumberland and York Counties.

Stelson, a centrist and former Republican, ended her tenure as a longtime local news anchor for NBC affiliate WGAL to challenge Perry. Stelson won a crowded primary to secure the nomination.

The race is competitive because of Stelson’s familiarity in the district and fundraising prowess, as well as Perry’s far-right positions, which have alienated moderates in the district.

Perry, the former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, tried to halt certification of Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results, voted against awarding the Congressional Gold Medal to officers who defended the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection, and had his phone seized as part of the FBI’s investigation into attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

» READ MORE: Janelle Stelson’s fundraising prowess has shifted her odds against Scott Perry

Wild, a Democrat who represents Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District, is facing a serious challenge from Republican State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.

Wild, 67, is a centrist three-term incumbent who won her 2022 reelection bid by two percentage points, and is running on a platform supporting reproductive rights and workers’ rights.

Mackenzie, 42, is a right-wing Republican who represents parts of Lehigh County in Harrisburg. He asked Congress not to certify the 2020 presidential election results, and he’s emphasizing discontent with inflation and problems at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The 7th Congressional District includes Lehigh, Northampton, and Carbon Counties, as well as a small portion of southwestern Monroe County.

» READ MORE: This Lehigh Valley congressional race is overshadowed by the presidential election but could determine who controls the House

Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr., 34, is trying to oust Cartwright, 63, a Democrat who has held his seat since 2013.

The Northeast Pennsylvania district has become increasingly competitive. Trump won the district twice, and Cartwright won in 2022 by just 2.4 percentage points. Republicans have touted Bresnahan’s community connections and painted Cartwright as a D.C. insider in contrast.

Bresnahan is the CEO of his family’s electrical contracting company and founded RPB Ventures to rehabilitate downtown Pittston buildings. Cartwright, a former trial attorney, has written 16 bills that later became law, according to his office.

Bresnahan falsely blamed Trump’s guilty verdict back in May on Biden, a conspiracy circulated by Trump and his allies.

The district includes Wayne, Pike, and Lackawanna Counties, as well as part of Luzerne County.

» READ MORE: This Democratic congressman keeps winning his Pa. Trump district. This year may be his toughest fight yet.

Assemblyman Herb Conaway, 61, is running on the Democratic ticket to replace U.S. Rep. Andy Kim in South Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District.

Kim has broken barriers within the Democratic machine and was the first Asian American congressman from New Jersey. Now running for U.S. Senate, he is expected to be that chamber’s first Korean American, its fourth-youngest member, the first Asian American senator ever from New Jersey, and the first senator from South Jersey since Robert Clymer Hendrickson of Woodbury left office in January 1955.

Conaway, of Delran in Burlington County, is seeking to follow in his footsteps. Conaway said he would be the first Black person to represent South Jersey in Congress and the first Black physician to have a vote in Congress. Physician Donna Marie Christian-Christensen, a Democrat, represented the U.S. Virgin Islands in the House from 1997 to 2015 as a nonvoting delegate.

Conaway is facing Republican Rajesh Mohan, who is also a physician, after winning a five-way open primary by a comfortable margin.

Mohan’s campaign said he would be the first Indian American member of Congress from New Jersey and the only Indian American Republican member of Congress.

The 3rd Congressional District includes almost all of Burlington County and parts of Mercer County, which lean Democratic, and parts of Republican-leaning Monmouth County.

» READ MORE: Herb Conaway wins Democratic primary in 3rd congressional district race to replace Andy Kim

Delaware State Sen. Sarah McBride, a Democrat, is poised to become the first transgender member of Congress. She is running against Republican Donyale Hall, a businesswoman and Air Force veteran, to fill the seat of U.S Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D., Del), who is running for U.S. Senate.

McBride, 33, is already the nation’s highest-ranking openly transgender elected official.

The district contains the entirety of the state of Delaware and is considered blue, having elected Democrats to the House for more than a decade. Blunt Rochester is vacating the seat after making history herself as the first woman and first African American elected to Congress from Delaware.

» READ MORE: Sarah McBride poised to become the first transgender member of Congress