The challenge ahead for David McCormick as he launches his Senate campaign

David McCormick is running for Senate again, and this time the Republican Party is squarely behind him.

In contrast to last year, when McCormick lost a close and brutal GOP primary race, nearly 100 prominent Republicans wrote a public letter urging him to run. He appears to have cleared the primary field, and there’s word he may get the state GOP’s official endorsement in the next few days.

But McCormick, 57, will also soon confront some of the same challenges he did last time — and even his supporters acknowledge he’s got a tight battle ahead.

McCormick’s entrance into Pennsylvania’s Senate race, with a launch event scheduled for Thursday evening in Pittsburgh, kickstarts a new bid for the office under different circumstances. While some of those differences — like the so-far lack of competitive primary — will help McCormick, he’ll also face attacks echoing his last run. And he’s up against a well-known incumbent in Sen. Bob Casey.

One thing that hasn’t changed: Pennsylvania’s Senate race will be closely watched and obscenely well-funded. In 2022, races to fill the open seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey drew $375 million, the most of any Senate race in the country. With the balance of the Senate up for grabs and Pennsylvania a persistent swing state, it’s one of a handful across the country that will continue to draw the spotlight and big dollars.

Historically, Senate elections are relatively close in Pennsylvania, no matter who is running. And some Republicans have noted that Casey’s elections have correlated with particularly good years for Democrats. That may not be the case next year.

“All things being equal 2024 looks like an even-steven type of cycle,” said Chris Nicholas, a GOP political consultant.

McCormick also has the benefit of just having run. He won’t have to reintroduce himself, and he knows the political lay of the land.

“There’s a long tradition in Pennsylvania of candidates running more than once before they end up getting elected statewide,” Democratic strategist J.J. Balaban said. “He starts with some experience from having done it two years ago and some relationships around the state.”

Casey can’t rely on his opponent being underfunded, as some previous challengers have been. McCormick has personal wealth he can spend on his campaign. A super PAC linked to Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell is also expected to back McCormick.

And McCormick will likely avoid a competitive primary, as no other Republicans have entered the race. The 2022 primary was a bitter feud, largely between McCormick and eventual winner celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, in which a lot of dirty laundry was aired — much of it hurting Oz in the general election.

No competitive primary will allow McCormick to campaign against Casey right out of the gate. It also means he can likely run more in the middle of the ideological spectrum than he would if he were trying to best a field of GOP challengers.

McCormick’s 2022 campaign worked to appeal to supporters of former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination. McCormick ran on an “America First” platform and he sought but did not receive Trump’s endorsement. This time, Trump comes with more baggage amid multiple indictments, and several Pennsylvania candidates he backed lost in 2022. How much McCormick aligns with Trump will be closely watched by Democrats eager to paint him as extreme.

But President Joe Biden has also suffered from low approval ratings as he seeks a second term.

“McCormick and Casey will both be more popular than top of the ticket if it’s what it looks like right now,” Republican strategist Charlie Gerow predicted. “It could be a reverse coattail effect where the U.S. Senate candidates could help their candidate at the top.”

Republicans say one of McCormick’s biggest assets is his background — he’s a West Point graduate who served in Iraq during the first Gulf War and had a successful career in finance. He served in in President George W. Bush’s administration and led the world’s largest hedge fund.

He can draw a contrast with Casey as a political outsider. And he doesn’t have a voting record his opponent can attack, whereas Casey has 17 years in the Senate.

But Casey — the longest serving Pennsylvania Democrat in Senate history — also has a winning track record.

He has overperformed other Democrats in the state in each election he’s won.

The son of former Gov. Bob Casey Sr., he has a longstanding reputation in the state — even if he’s known for being a mild-mannered lawmaker.

This will be the first Senate election in decades during which there are already two Democrats representing the state, after Sen. John Fetterman took office in January. Republicans hope voters might look to balance out representation in Washington.

“There’s always been some reluctance on the part of some Republicans to go 2000% against Casey because we had the other Senate seat,” Nicholas said. “Now the other seat is the shorts and hoodie guy and Republicans just don’t like or respect that…so the reluctance is now gone because there’s no balance.”

McCormick’s vulnerabilities going into this race remain largely the same as his last campaign, when he faced attacks about his past comments on China and his ties to Pennsylvania.

And Democrats have spent the summer trying to define him as extreme.

On a debate stage in Harrisburg in April 2022, McCormick was asked if he believed in any exceptions to an abortion ban. “I believe in the very rare instances there should be exceptions for the life of the mother,” McCormick said then. In June 2023, a spokesperson for McCormick told The Inquirer that his stance also includes exceptions for rape and incest.

“That’s going to hang around his neck very heavily in this election,” Balaban said of McCormick’s initial answer.

Democrats who see abortion as a winning issue, have already launched digital ads calling McCormick’s stance too hardline.

Gerow said early attacks show “Democrats are concerned about him as a candidate.” McCormick will benefit from having robust GOP support early; Gerow said the GOP state committee will move to endorse McCormick this weekend.

McCormick has also been criticized for laudatory comments he made in the past about China and for heading Bridgewater Associates, a hedge fund that raised $1.25 billion for an investment fund in China.

McCormick has since defended his past actions and sought to clarify his stance on China.

This month, he testified at a Congressional hearing on the “systemic risk” of the Chinese Communist Party to U.S. finances. “As CEO, I had a fiduciary responsibility to our shareholders and our clients to maximize returns in line with their needs,” McCormick testified. “At the same time, I held deep reservations about Bridgewater’s exposure to the moral and patriotic hazards of doing business in China.”

And then there’s McCormick’s residency. McCormick moved from Connecticut to Pennsylvania to run in the 2022 Republican primary but still rents a $16 million mansion in Westport, Conn. The Associated Press reported that McCormick listed the Connecticut address as recently as March, while making a donation to a Pennsylvania-based political action committee. The story prompted attacks from Democrats eager to repeat an offensive that worked well against Oz last year.

The residency issue could be harder to make stick given McCormick’s roots in Pennsylvania. He was born in Washington, Pa., and grew up in the Pittsburgh area. His father is the past president of Bloomsburg University and was also a chancellor within the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education.

“He’ll tell that story well,” Gerow said. “It’s a long campaign — ultimately the number of people who are gonna vote based on where you live is very small.”