Pennsylvania’s blue wave offers Democrats hope for 2024

Democrats won the marquee state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania, made history on both ends of the state and swept in Philadelphia’s suburbs Tuesday, building on a blue shift that has yet to abate in recent off-year elections and fueled in large part by a concentration on reproductive rights.

Despite floundering approval ratings for President Joe Biden, Democrats prevailed in the biggest race in the state, electing Democrat Dan McCaffery to the state Supreme Court over Republican Carolyn Carluccio in a race that Democrats made all about abortion rights and protecting election integrity. Republicans also poured millions into the contest but largely aimed to avoid both topics.

The wins built on successes Democrats saw in the 2022 midterms and echoed results of races across the country, where abortion rights persuaded voters in swing and even Republican-leaning states to look past frustration with the national Democratic party.

“Once again, Republicans revealed just how out of sync they are with voters by putting up an extreme, anti-abortion candidate who rubs shoulders with the far-right,” the Democratic National Committee said in a statement. “Let this be yet another lesson for the GOP: Pennsylvania voters and Americans across the country want more freedom, not less — and they’ll show up again in 2024 to reject Republican extremism once again.”

The blue wave washed across cities and suburbs alike.

Democrat Sara Innamorato was elected County Executive in Allegheny County — the first woman in history to hold the job, as Democrats also expectedly cruised to victory in Philadelphia, electing Cherelle Parker the first female mayor of Philadelphia. And the Working Families Party candidates, who identify closely with Democrats, took two Council seats from Republicans and claimed a historic victory for progressives.

The results in an off-year election, in which only about one-third of registered voters cast ballots, is an imperfect comparison for the 2024 presidential race but does hold some promising signs for Democrats, who will count heavily on winning Pennsylvania, a critical swing state. And the showing indicates that the Democratic base is motivated when abortion rights are front and center.

In Bucks County, a perennial swing county often seen as a barometer for the state, Democrats maintained control of the board of commissioners, took control of the Doylestown Board of Supervisors for the first time in history, and swept the hotly contested Central Bucks School Board — which has been ground zero for culture war issues. Democrats continued to hold seats in Delaware and Montgomery Counties and for the first time in history won control of Chester County in consecutive elections.

Some Republicans bucked the trend. Republican District Attorney Matt Weintraub won an election for judge in Bucks County . And City Councilmember Brian O’Neill held on in Philadelphia’s 10th District, where he’s represented Northeast Philadelphia for more than 40 years.

In Lehigh County, another key swing region, Democrats won all contested row offices and all four commissioner seats.

And in New Jersey, where Republicans gained mightily last year, Democrats easily held the state legislature and even picked up several seats.

Voters indicated at the polls that the nationalization of local races — and focus on abortion rights — had an impact.

”I wanted to make sure that basic human rights are protected,” said Bridget Shannon, 32, of Phoenixville.

”I’m concerned about women’s choices and women’s health care, and that’s driving my [vote],” said Heather Bernardin, 55, of Collegeville.

Brendan Bradley, who voted for the Democratic commissioners at his polling place in Bristol on Tuesday, said he was thinking of next year’s presidential election, and how the Bucks County commissioners could be called upon to certify election results in a purple county.

”That’s why I voted Democratic,” Bradley said. “I hate Trump. Keeping these commissioners in office is incredibly important.”

Abortion rights were at the center of several Democratic victories Tuesday. In Kentucky (a state former President Donald Trump won by 26 points) Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection, in part by running on abortion rights and a rejection of anti-LGBTQ policies.

In Ohio, voters decidedly passed Issue 1, a measure to establish a right to an abortion in the state constitution. Ohio’s referendum was the seventh state-level referendum victory for abortion rights advocates post-Roe. Similar questions could be put on the ballot next year in Arizona, Florida, and Missouri, which could boost Democratic turnout in those states.

And in Virginia, Democrats not only held the state Senate but flipped the state house after Republicans, backed by Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, pledged to pass a 15-week limit on abortions should they win control.

Biden, whose approval ratings have remained low, seized on his party’s wins Tuesday night. His campaign signaled he’ll latch onto the issue in his reelection campaign.

“Americans once again voted to protect their fundamental freedoms — and democracy won,” the campaign said, blasting Republicans as too extreme and out-of-touch on the issue. “That same choice will be before voters again next November, and we are confident the American people will send President Biden and Vice President Harris back to the White House to keep working for them.”

Only about 30% of registered Pennsylvania voters turned out for the off-year election, making it somewhat difficult to use the results to predict what could happen in 2024.

But the state Supreme Court race offered some insight on statewide politics. McCaffery, a lesser known Democrat, was fueled by a multi-million dollar campaign that blanketed the state with advertisements blasting his opponent as too extreme on abortion. Based on unofficial results, McCaffery was out-performing Biden’s margin in 2020 and Sen. John Fetterman’s in 2022, including in swing areas and in redder parts of the state.

Progressive energy fueling Working Families Party candidates Kendra Brooks and Nicolas O’Rourke in Philadelphia, as well as Innamorato in Allegheny could also hold promising signs for Democrats who need to boost turnout among young voters — in Philadelphia in particular.

Of course, neither Biden nor Trump, the presumed GOP candidate, were on the ballot, which will be a huge difference should they both become their parties’ nominees. Trump is known to drive GOP turnout. And Biden’s weaknesses could present a whole new set of challenges once an expanded electorate is in play. Biden, according to recent polls, has work to do with less active voters — the type who don’t vote in midterms or elections like Tuesday. So the showing by the party’s most faithful might not signal much about next year.

A lot can happen in a year. The state of the economy and the public perception of Biden could all shift for better or worse. Trump remains under multiple indictments as his GOP rivals try to make up ground.

But count on Democrats to put abortion rights at the center of their campaigns and Republicans to try and find a better way to run on the issue.

Carluccio, in the hours before she conceded noted the narrative Democrats had built.

“The Democrats made this about abortion,” Carluccio said. “And actually abortion has nothing to do with this. I don’t expect it to come before me [as a justice], but they’re using it as a litmus test to see what the people think.”

Staff writer Gillian McGoldrick contributed to this article.