Trump and Biden are tied in Pa., but past polls underestimated the former president’s appeal, the Washington Post says
Pennsylvania is the only swing state where Biden and Trump are tied, according to a new analysis of poll results.
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President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied in Pennsylvania polls. A Washington Post analysis shows how that would change if Trump’s support were underestimated in the same way it was in past years.
The analysis underscores the importance of every vote in Pennsylvania as the two candidates prepare for their first debate of the election on Thursday.
By averaging out data from various pollsters, the Post found that Trump is leading in five out of seven swing states. And Pennsylvania is the only swing state where Biden and Trump are tied. This is supported by a recent Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll that showed Trump slightly in the lead, but within the margin of error — resulting in a statistical tie.
Polling website 538 tracks polling averages daily, and currently has Trump leading by 0.7 points in Pennsylvania as of Wednesday.
Panning out to the national vote, 538 shows Trump and Biden polling evenly nationwide, as of Wednesday, and the Post shows Trump up by less than one point. While national polls can help gauge public opinion, the winner is not determined by the popular vote, which is why localized polling, especially in swing states, is important.
How would the poll results look with the same miscalculations from past years?
Trump won Pennsylvania by a little less than a percentage point in 2016, and Biden won by a little more than one percentage point in 2020. But polls underestimated Trump’s support in the state both years.
» READ MORE: Trump is still lying about winning Pa. in 2020. He’s still wrong.
Biden and Trump are currently tied in Pennsylvania, but polls aren’t perfect. And when applying the last three presidential election polling errors to this year’s results, Trump would be in the lead each time.
Poll results underestimated Trump by three points in Pennsylvania in 2020, and by five points in 2016, according to the Washington Post. Because the candidates are currently tied, those numbers measure how much Trump would lead Biden today if the same errors were applied.
Poll results were more accurate in 2012. The final polling averages found then-President Barack Obama leading by six points, and he won the state by five points, according to the Post. This was a negligible difference, but still, if applied to this year’s polls so far, Trump would be up by less than one percentage point. That’s how close the race is.
Polls aren’t meant to predict the future, but rather capture public opinion at a given time. A lot could change before November, and polls could be underestimating or overestimating either candidate.
The Post estimated that if the economy improved before Election Day, Biden could lead national polls by an average of six points. On the flip side, Trump could lead national polls by an average of less than a percentage point if the economy gets worse. There is “a fair amount of uncertainty” at this point surrounding these particular projections, however, according to the Post.
But amid all the unknowns, one thing is certain: Both candidates recognize just how crucial Pennsylvania will be to deciding America’s next president.