Returning to Butler puts a big spotlight on Trump. How will he use it?

Former President Donald Trump has said that the first line he’ll deliver when he returns to the stage in Butler will be “… as I was saying.”

What follows will be the most highly anticipated speech of his campaign since he first talked about the shooting on stage at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Returning to Butler — the site of the first assassination attempt on a president or presidential candidate in 43 years — sets up a cinematic hero’s welcome for Trump, whose path to the White House seems less certain than it did in mid-July when the bullet grazed his ear.

The speech will surely motivate an already engaged base, but how he might expand his support remains a question with about five weeks to Election Day.

Trump is now in a deadlocked race with Vice President Kamala Harris instead of enjoying the slight advantage he had on July 13 and in the days that followed when the GOP rallied around him and Democrats moved to oust President Joe Biden as the nominee.

After saying in July that his RNC acceptance speech would be the first and only mention of the assassination because it’s “too painful to tell,” Trump has brought up the shooting often, a recognition of the power of the moment he created when he lifted his fist and yelled “Fight!” as Secret Service agents escorted him offstage. It’s been a hallmark of his rallies in Pennsylvania.

» READ MORE: Everything you need to know about Trump's return to Butler, Pa., from rally time to how to obtain tickets

“The aftermath of the assassination attempt, particularly the defiant image of him with his fist raised, was the high-water mark of the campaign,” Western Pennsylvania political strategist Mike Butler said. “And maybe the one clear moment when Trump appeared as how Trump views himself.”

The political strategist characterized Trump’s return to the site as “his personal ‘Remember the Alamo,’” a rallying cry during the Texas Revolution and the Mexican-American War.

Trump has said the rally will be a tribute to firefighter Corey Comperatore, who was killed that day, but it will also likely be a highly cinematic moment in a battleground state he’s intent on winning.

“Look, Donald Trump doesn’t know governing but he knows stage crafting,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist in Allegheny County.

“He’s very good at creating a compelling storyline … I mean most presidential candidates don’t think about pumping their fist in the air while they’re being shot at, but his first instinct is stagecraft.”

It’s also a chance to exhibit what has become a theme of his campaign: strength.

“He’s determined to get back even in spite of some of the dangers involved,” said U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser (R., Luzerne), one of Trump’s top allies in the state, who will return to Butler with U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly (R., Butler), Senate candidate Dave McCormick, and others.

Meuser now knows from investigations related to the shooting that the bullets that injured two other attendees and killed Comperatore flew about 18 inches above his head. Dozens of Trump supporters and local and statewide politicians will return to the exact field where they ran from gunfire just three months ago.

“The president displayed incredible courage on that day,” Allegheny County GOP chair Sam DeMarco said. “When he rose to his feet and put his fist in the air urging his supporters to ‘fight, fight, fight!,’ that is the American spirit that allowed us to win the American Revolution, World War II … it shows we can face any challenge.”

And, DeMarco added, that kind of rallying message could provide key momentum to the campaign.

“As we get down to the wire, a boost here for his supporters as well as those working on behalf of him and [JD] Vance is certainly welcomed and could put some wind in their sails,” DeMarco said.

Butler and its farm show fairgrounds are now forever linked to the assassination attempt. A congressional committee is investigating it along with a second attempt in Florida. The lawmakers are also reviewing the Secret Service’s readiness and response, as Americans, who have already started to vote, grapple with the state of political violence in the country.

Thousands attended the July 13 rally in the 90-degree heat at the fairgrounds about 40 miles from Pittsburgh.

“I keep thinking it’s part of the healing process for our community at large,” said Jondavid Longo, a mayor of nearby Slippery Rock, who did an intro at the first Butler rally, and will speak again on Saturday. Longo is glad Trump is returning to the scene of the assassination attempt, rather than an indoor location that could be more easily secured.

“The Butler Farm Show is something that’s very special to all of us in the region,” he said. “Resolving to claim that place back for us as a place of joy, happiness, camaraderie … that’s very important.”

Longo also thinks supporters see it as a moment to show their own resilience. Trump rallies are always a fan festival, and that unified atmosphere was threatened that day.

“This is a statement to the whole world that there is nobody, no threat of violence, that’s ever gonna keep President Trump and his supporters from exercising our God-given rights to free speech to participate in this election cycle.”

In returning to Butler, Trump is rallying a base that supported him with 66% of the vote in 2020.

The largely rural and predominantly white area supported him with 61% of the vote in 2016.

“As the county surrounding Allegheny, it’s key to President Trump’s reelection,” DeMarco said, “because it’s the margin of his votes there that can offset the Democratic votes coming out of places like Allegheny and Philadelphia.”

While the county is ruby red, Butler’s southern suburbs closest to Allegheny have been getting more Democratic, so it’s a place worth focusing on.

“If turnout lags in Butler and counties similar, it’ll be a long night for Donald Trump,” Mikus said.

But there are limits to Trump rallying his most faithful base in a deadlocked election. Trump’s rallies, often littered with falsehoods and incendiary rhetoric, are not directed at moderate or independent voters.

Some of his supporters are hoping he seizes the closely watched moment to step into the center.

“It’s these same old things he says at these rallies,” said John Grenci, a Butler native and alternate Trump delegate at the RNC. “Even though there aren’t independents, generally, at his rallies he could at least say things that maybe have a domino effect toward reaching independents.”

Grenci, who has attended five Trump rallies this year along with the convention, won’t be going on Saturday. He remains a huge Trump supporter and sees the value in showing resilience, but he’s concerned Trump will replay the same 90-minute rally speech for which he’s come to be known — and criticized.

“He’s largely preaching to the choir and I get the intent is to galvanize the choir, but personally, I think there’s too much calling names,” Grenci said. “This is the most winnable election. He’s got a great record but then [at the rallies] there’s this buzz, there’s this frenzy, you get caught up in the moment, everyone’s raising their fists in the air.”