John Fetterman’s debate showing left Democratic insiders shaken but still hopeful

When one Pennsylvania Democratic operative got on a call Wednesday morning, his out-of-state clients didn’t want to talk about their own campaigns. They were asking about John Fetterman.

And inside Pennsylvania’s Democratic circles, insiders and elected officials fretted about Fetterman’s halting performance in Tuesday’s high-stakes U.S. Senate debate, questioning his campaign’s choice to participate, and in some cases, hoping the debate came too late for serious damage to sink in, according to several operatives and elected Democrats, most of whom didn’t want to go on record criticizing their home-state candidate.

“I was getting text messages throughout the debate and certainly when it concluded from Fetterman voters … saying, ‘Woah,’” said David Dix, a political consultant from Philadelphia who has worked on both Democratic and Republican campaigns.

Given that Fetterman has most often campaigned in big rallies where he delivered stump speeches, Tuesday night was the first chance many voters had to see him for an extended, rapid-fire back-and-forth.

“If you hadn’t gone to a rally, you hadn’t really seen him outside of the ads,” Dix said.

In the only debate of Pennsylvania’s crucial Senate race, Fetterman struggled at times to clearly answer questions, drawing harsh national attention on the biggest stage of the campaign. His showing only increased anxiety among Democrats already nervous about tightening polls as Fetterman tries to hold off Republican Mehmet Oz.

“I would have skipped it. ... I understand why they did it,” said Jim Messina, a former Barack Obama campaign manager, while on MSNBC with host Andrea Mitchell. “They wanted to get rid of this question and say, ‘Look, we’ve done it.’ I thought the format was ridiculous and didn’t favor him. And I wouldn’t have agreed to it.”

» READ MORE: Key takeaways from the Pa. Senate debate between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz

Debate clips circulating on social media and cable news Wednesday focused on Fetterman’s verbal slips and pauses, and the difficulties he had at times answering attacks from Oz.

Former Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell said he thinks Fetterman’s campaign team likely thought it would have gone better.

“Some voters could have honest questions about whether John can handle the job. I think he can, because people have to remember, you improve from a stroke gradually. Almost no one does it overnight,” he said.

Fetterman, according to the debate host Nexstar, did just one preparation session with the station’s closed captioning after asking for, and being granted, the opportunity to do two.

Other Democrats said they thought Fetterman offered a vision that will appeal to voters, and emphasized an Oz response on abortion that they’re already turning into an ad.

It’s unclear how much Fetterman’s debate performance will penetrate with voters in the homestretch or whether they’ll find his very public recovery admirable or concerning. But the outcome will have national reverberations: It could decide control of the currently evenly divided Senate.

Republicans said Fetterman’s performance could dissuade undecided voters from backing the Democrat in a race that’s essentially tied with less than two weeks to go until Election Day on Nov. 8.

“Debates don’t matter until they do, and last night mattered,” said Peter Towey, a Pennsylvania Republican operative.

“Fetterman failed to defend his radical policies on issues like crime and energy,” he said. “At the same time, he lost the chance to reassure voters that were on the fence that he is up for the job.”

(During one of the most prominent moments of the night, for example, Fetterman was asked about his stated support for fracking, given past comments strongly opposing it. He repeated three times that he supports fracking without explaining.)

Matt Beynon, a Republican operative who worked for former Sen. Rick Santorum, expressed sympathy for Fetterman but predicted the debate will leave voters wondering if he can handle such a big job.

“Being a United States senator is an 18-hour-a-day, 7-day-a-week job representing 13 million people for the next six years, and last night raised some serious questions about his ability to do the job,” Beynon said.

Sen. Bob Casey (D., Pa.) disagreed.

“I know this job well,” Casey told MSNBC. “John is prepared right now to be an effective senator.”

He also said Fetterman had better answers on issues voters care about, like retirement, health care, and abortion rights.

Oz said abortion laws should be left up to the states, delivering an answer that Democrats hope could salvage the night for them: “I want women, doctors, local political leaders letting the democracy that’s always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best ideas forward.”

Fetterman immediately launched ads Wednesday emphasizing the interjection of “local politicians,” and aiming to connect Oz with State Sen. Doug Mastriano, who has called for banning abortion entirely and is running for governor.

» READ MORE: Mehmet Oz said local politicians should have a say in abortion. Democrats see an opportunity.

“If I was the Fetterman campaign, I would dump every single nickel I had on television with that quote, because that is just out of touch,” Messina said.

Five months into his recovery from his May stroke, Fetterman pledged Tuesday night to stand up for “the union way of life,” raise the minimum wage, and fight for abortion rights. He called his health challenges “the elephant in the room,” but cast his situation as relatable to anyone who’s ever “got knocked down that needs to get back up.”

Pressed by a moderator at one point to release his full medical records, Fetterman argued that his big rallies and attendance at the debate showed his transparency. He concluded: “My doctor believes that I’m fit to be serving. And that’s what I believe is where I’m standing.”

Medical experts have said that speech and hearing problems are common after strokes, and that they aren’t connected to cognitive issues. Fetterman’s doctor wrote a letter this month saying the lieutenant governor has no work restrictions and “spoke intelligently without cognitive deficits.”

Fetterman has acknowledged struggles with his speech and processing of spoken words. He used closed captioning Tuesday to follow the questions, and was able to navigate and respond to the topics.

And he has done other events and media interviews in which he was far more fluent and smooth. People recovering from strokes and other health conditions often have some days that are better than others, setbacks mixed with improvements.

”Putting a timer on someone adds pressure to a system that is already working hard,” Brooke Hatfield, a Maryland speech pathologist, told the AP. “Ultimately it’s important to remember that changes in communication are different than changes in intelligence, reasoning, and other cognitive skills.”

Democrats argued that Fetterman showed courage to stand up under the bright lights while still recovering, knowing that he was never a strong debater even before his stroke.

“John showed grit,” said Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh, a onetime Fetterman rival in the Democratic primary. “He showed up. He gave it his all. He made his positions clear. For the average voter, his actions are more important than his words.”

Arguing that Fetterman still knows policy, Democratic strategist Mustafa Rashed said: “If it was a take-home essay, he probably would have nailed it.”

» READ MORE: John Fetterman’s performance was center stage in lone Pa. Senate debate against Mehmet Oz

Even if Fetterman’s performance might worry some insiders, several other Democrats said they didn’t expect one debate, at this late stage, to dramatically move votes.

“Undecided voters already had plenty of time to weigh whether he was capable,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist from Western Pennsylvania. “It’s going to come down to the issues they care about, and I still think Fetterman wins.”

But other Democrats, while agreeing that few undecided voters were likely watching, said the clips of Fetterman could live on in digital and TV ads well past Tuesday.

Oz, for his part, seemed content to let news coverage reinforce Fetterman’s tough night. He spoke Wednesday afternoon at a Pennsylvania State Trooper Association office in Harrisburg, alongside former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity, focusing on crime and public safety.

Fetterman headed back to Pittsburgh for a more comfortable stage: a rally with musician Dave Mathews.