Why John Fetterman picked Erie for his first big rally after a stroke that nearly killed him

Friday could be the biggest moment of John Fetterman’s Senate campaign. It’s his first major public appearance since suffering a May 13 stroke and will be a closely watched opportunity to relaunch his general election campaign with fewer than 100 days to go.

For the evening rally, Fetterman picked Erie County, a backdrop meaningful to his campaign’s emphasis on more rural, blue-collar parts of the state, as well as for its past role as a must-win place for Democrats.

“John believes whoever wins Erie County’s gonna win the election,” Fetterman campaign spokesperson Joe Calvello said. “He said the same thing in 2020. It’s the bellwether of Pennsylvania. It’s a place where Democrats need to compete and frankly, where we need to win. And that’s why we’re going there right away to make a mark.”

» READ MORE: Biden wins back 2 of the 3 Obama-Trump counties. Barely.

Fetterman, 52, has remained largely hidden from the public since his stroke, which he has said nearly killed him. He’s worked behind the scenes, the campaign said, posting scripted social media videos and attending a few fund-raisers. He did one interview by remote video and a TV interview that will air tonight but otherwise has not talked to the press in more than three months.

His opponent, Mehmet Oz, has attacked his absence, posting “basement trackers,” and accusing Fetterman of hiding from scrutiny.

Fetterman is guaranteed to face it Friday, as he greets hundreds of supporters to mark his return to the campaign trail in the critical Senate race. What message he picks and how he looks and sounds delivering it will be in the spotlight.

So will Erie County.

Where Erie County goes, so goes Pennsylvania. That’s long been the sentiment of political prognosticators, campaigns, and reporters looking for one stop to tap into the state’s electorate.

Erie was one of three counties that flipped from voting for Barack Obama in 2012 to voting for Donald Trump in 2016. It was one of two (along with Northampton) that flipped back to Joe Biden in 2020 — though by the thinnest of margins, about 1,400 votes.

Erie County, with one midsize city on the lake and a lot of more rural areas, known as “the county,” farther inland, is a microcosm of Pennsylvania, which has become a microcosm of the country. In most statewide elections, the margins are within a tenth of a percentage point of how they voted in Erie.

“Erie’s the bellwether of Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania is the bellwether of the nation,” said Brenton Davis, Erie County executive, elected last year.

» READ MORE: Democrats are looking for a rebound in Erie, a symbol of Trump’s Rust Belt appeal

Davis, who is a Republican, said he welcomes politicians of all parties to pitch voters there. He noted that for all the attention Fetterman’s receiving for his rally Friday, Oz has made several trips to the county over the last few months.

“I can tell you Dr. Oz has spent a substantial amount of time here,” Davis said. “His presence here is very strong — and those one-on-one voter contacts, that means something to people. That’s just an observation. That’s not an endorsement for him.”

Erie County GOP chair Tom Eddy said he thinks Oz “has got a hill to climb” in Erie, but said with every group he speaks to, Oz is winning people over.

“As people meet him, I think they change their views,” Eddy said. “Sometimes you think of Oz as this TV personality, and he seems much more down-to-earth when you meet him.”

Jim Wertz, who chairs the county’s Democratic Party, said voters in Erie are very familiar with Fetterman even if he hasn’t done a public event there since before the primary. He won 80% of the Democratic primary vote there.

Wertz predicted Fetterman’s focus on raising the minimum wage, unions, and working-class issues could transcend party lines in Erie.

“I think that is in large part because what he’s saying to people doesn’t sound like political rhetoric,” Wertz said. “It sounds like authentic statements, speaking to the needs people have in 2022.”

Wedged along Lake Erie between Cleveland and Buffalo, the county is a reflection of the industrial Midwest. It has a core city, Erie (locals just call it “the city”), politically balanced suburbs, and conservative rural areas with cornfields, dairy farms, and sprawling vineyards used for Welch’s grape juice and Rust Belt wineries.

Its political symbolism is such that locals describe being interviewed by journalists from Sweden, Brazil, and New Zealand.

David Wasserman, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, once called it “Pennsylvania’s electoral ground zero.”

The county was once a manufacturing powerhouse that has seen a steep loss of industrial jobs.

It became a symbol of Trump’s surprise victory and blue-collar appeal in 2016. Despite its Democratic, labor union roots, Erie County saw a 21,000-vote swing to Trump compared with the previous election, a huge factor in a state decided by just 44,000 votes. And ever since, political analysts and campaign operatives have watched Erie for signs of whether Trump-like candidates can hold white, working-class voters across Midwestern swing states.

Staff writer Jonathan Tamari contributed to this article.